Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Man, maybe I shouldn't have conceded my hurricane opinion earlier.

Doing the math....Humberto is moving north-northeast at 6 mph. It is 45 miles south-southwest of High Island.

45 divided by 6 = 7.5 more hours over water. Landfall around 5:30 AM local time, about 1 1/2 hours after the last advisory before landfall.

15-21 GMT: 35 mph to 50 mph
21-03 GMT: 50 mph to 65 mph
03-09 GMT: 65 mph to ???

I'm not saying it will, but it still has some time, unless it speeds up or turns left, to become a hurricane the way it's been developing. Don't entirely think it will, but you just never know. I mean, what are the odds that it KEEPS moving in that direction the whole time? It is most likely going to wobble, right?

-Andrew92

[jasons2k]

Humberto is trying. Lots of lightning near the center too, but most of it almost an hour old.

[Bailey1777]

If you consider the Bolivar Penisula a part of Galveston which I do it is West of that point.

[Stormcenter]

LOOK AT A MAP GALVESTON'S EAST END IS WEST OF THE CENTER!

I'm only reading what the NHC has posted so don't shoot the messenger.
Anyway, the radar images speak for themselves. It's still moving NNE.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[WindRunner]

LOOK AT A MAP GALVESTON'S EAST END IS WEST OF THE CENTER!

Hence it would be going SSE if you traveled from Galveston to the storm's center. Trust me . . . the NHC knows their directions pretty well.

[swimaster20]

I don't know if y'all noticed or not, but the NHC is now forecasting landfall around western or central Jefferson County, FWIW.

[Steve]

>>I'm not saying it will, but it still has some time, unless it speeds up or turns left, to become a hurricane the way it's been developing.

Remember Cindy did it at the end too. Squeezing out hurricane status during an intensification process when Humberto is already this close to Cat 1 status isn't as remote as it might have seemed. The system is tightening though I haven't seen any recent pressure readings to see if there's a last gasp 2-5mb drop as it winds up. Circulation Centers of tropical storms are a trip too. I remember Bill 2003's center passed right over head with some sustained 40-50's.

Steve

[HoustonTexas]

If you consider the Bolivar Penisula a part of Galveston which I do it is West of that point.

Give it up. It's not coming to Houston.

[WindRunner]

Without preempting jschiltz's identical radar, it's interesting to see that Humberto's eastern eyewall has really flared up over the past 30 minutes. No lightning associated with the storms any more, but still convectively bursting.

[cpdaman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Man, maybe I shouldn't have conceded my hurricane opinion earlier.

Doing the math....Humberto is moving north-northeast at 6 mph. It is 45 miles south-southwest of High Island.

45 divided by 6 = 7.5 more hours over water. Landfall around 5:30 AM local time, about 1 1/2 hours after the last advisory before landfall.

15-21 GMT: 35 mph to 50 mph
21-03 GMT: 50 mph to 65 mph
03-09 GMT: 65 mph to ???

I'm not saying it will, but it still has some time, unless it speeds up or turns left, to become a hurricane the way it's been developing. Don't entirely think it will, but you just never know. I mean, what are the odds that it KEEPS moving in that direction the whole time? It is most likely going to wobble, right?

-Andrew92

just because a storm is hasn't officially made landfall does not mean that having forty percent of it over land is good for strengthening. this will be the case later tonite (not yet)

[Category 5]

Call me crazy but the radar loop shows a N/NNW jump.

You're not crazy, I see it too.

[mattpetre]

I was bullish on this storm from day 1 (last Thursday) and I tried to give kudos to those that were and was told it was nothing significant, just September in the Tropics (anything can happen.) Then I state that I still believe a SLIGHT NW turn is possible before landfall and Galveston (and I mean the city) could still be in the center and I'm told that is completely impossible... come on now... I thought it was September in the tropics... I saw this storm being a threat from Corpus to the LA/TX for the last 6 days and yet I'm the one now that only sees things that are impossible?? I give up...

[Andrew92]

>>I'm not saying it will, but it still has some time, unless it speeds up or turns left, to become a hurricane the way it's been developing.

Remember Cindy did it at the end too. Squeezing out hurricane status during an intensification process when Humberto is already this close to Cat 1 status isn't as remote as it might have seemed. The system is tightening though I haven't seen any recent pressure readings to see if there's a last gasp 2-5mb drop as it winds up. Circulation Centers of tropical storms are a trip too. I remember Bill 2003's center passed right over head with some sustained 40-50's.

Steve

Well, to be fair, let me go through my personal forecasting timeline for today on this system.

1. When it became a depression and I read the discussion indicating possible 38-knot winds, I thought the storm MIGHT have already had winds around 50-60 mph at the time.

2. The 50-60 mph led to speculation by me that the depression/storm might become stronger than some thought. Maybe even a hurricane.

3. I asked some questions about an eyewall potentially forming in the late afternoon, but it appeared at the time like it was not happening.

4. I took a posting break to watch a baseball game, but still caught blurbs of posts during commercials.

5. When I noticed the dry air possibly being entrained just before this latest advisory, I conceded any chances of Humberto becoming a hurricane.

6. The winds reached 65 mph at the latest advisory and the dry air now appears to have abated.

Alas, I fell victim to how unpredictable the tropics can be when I conceded. I still am riding the fence, but I won't be sure until it makes landfall. And if it's at the borderline, my uncertainties might reach until the final report comes out.

-Andrew92

[Steve]

>>just because a storm is hasn't officially made landfall does not mean that having forty percent of it over land is good for strengthening. this will be the case later tonite (not yet)

Depends. Interaction with land can cause tightening and has in the past. I think it's close to peak (JMO).

FWIW, the overall motion is 30 or so. Every now and then on the radar, Humberto wobbles north before jogging again more eastward. People have been discussing N or NE, but it's both. Look at the jump at 9:53 frame. You can see the east move. It's a couple over and a one up.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Humberto could landfall closer to the Sabine River (TX/LA) line than I would have thought.

Steve

[Buck]

What are other storms that pulled it just into Hurricane strength right on the coast before landfall?

Erika (2003)
Gaston (2004)
Cindy (2005)

[Stormcenter]

Call me crazy but the radar loop shows a N/NNW jump.

You're not crazy, I see it too.

What are you guys seeing? I mean I'm trying to agree with you all who see this
NW jog and it's just not there. It's still NNE as it has been for a good while now.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[Bailey1777]

Mattpetre I actually thought of your post when I saw this bend I beleive it could be more of a trend than people think.

[HollynLA]

Call me crazy but the radar loop shows a N/NNW jump.

You're not crazy, I see it too.

Could you provide a link, because I'm not seeing this?

[Andrew92]

just because a storm is hasn't officially made landfall does not mean that having forty percent of it over land is good for strengthening. this will be the case later tonite (not yet)

But it ISN'T there yet, right? If it WILL BE there later, it still has a chance of intensify, if I'm correct. And the way Humberto has been developing, I think anything is possible right up until landfall.

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Here's my bouy again:

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/42035.html

How close to the center is this thing?



Air Temperature: 78° F / 26° C
Humidity: 94
Wind direction (W Dir): East (95 - 104 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 35.0 kts (40.3 mph / 64.8 km/h)
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.70 in / 1006 hPa
Pressure Tendency (PT): -0.10 in / -3.3 hPa
Steady or increasing, then decreasing; or decreasing, then decreasing more rapidly