Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[mattpetre]

I must admit I'm a little dumbfounded... if you were to have shown me the full sequence of satellite images (esp. the enhanced) from last night straight though tonight and then tell me that the most I would have at my house in SW Houston is a sprinkle and 15 to 20mph winds, I would have thought it completely absurd... yet that is what has happened... man tropical weather is not nearly as exciting as severe weather in tornado alley in the springtime

[WindRunner]

KGLS now at 35mph sustained gusting to 51 @ 3:23z . . . and the squall isn't even really there yet!

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's slowed down in the last hour....still moving NE, but, I'd say it's around 5 mph.

[MGC]

Based on my over 30 years experience of looking at radar displays (I was in the Navy), Humberto is moving to the NNE. Depending on which way he wobbles, I'd say landfall should be near High Island. Dry air is eroding the SW quadrant so I doubt Humberto makes it to hurricane intensity, it will be close howerver. Humberto should pass over or just to the south of Beaumont tomorrow morning. A NE to ENE motion will take Humberto across SW Louisiana towards central La. This is going to be a major rain event for areas of E Texas and SW and central Louisiana the next couple of days. I would not be surprised if Humberto stalls or does a loop or two simular to Hurricane Juan in 1985.......MGC

[Andrew92]

Say, I don't know if this is in the correct thread, but is there another recon going to investigate Humberto before landfall?

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR GALVESTON)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02HHA CYCLONE
C. 13/0430Z
D. 29.0N 95.0W
E. 13/0530Z TO 13/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[WindRunner]

Also of note . . . SW portion of the "eyewall" has collapsed over the last half hour, making the wall span from WNW to ENE. Lightning is firing once again in the NNW part of the circulation . . .

[Bailey1777]

Real good analysis MGC my thoughts exactly.

[WindRunner]

Say, I don't know if this is in the correct thread, but is there another recon going to investigate Humberto before landfall?

-Andrew92

Yes, we have a 06z fix scheduled with takeoff in an hour.

[HURAKAN]

Say, I don't know if this is in the correct thread, but is there another recon going to investigate Humberto before landfall?

-Andrew92

Yes:
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR GALVESTON)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02HHA CYCLONE
C. 13/0430Z
D. 29.0N 95.0W
E. 13/0530Z TO 13/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Leaves in an hour.

[otowntiger]

It looks to me that there is a possibility that Humberto could parallel the coast for a while before making it inland, allowing for some further intensification. I think the landfall could be closer to the LA/TX border than currently forecast. Looks to me to be moving more NE than NNE. Of course all it would take would be for a slight wobble to the left to completely change everything.

[Andrew92]

Say, I don't know if this is in the correct thread, but is there another recon going to investigate Humberto before landfall?

-Andrew92

Yes:
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR GALVESTON)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02HHA CYCLONE
C. 13/0430Z
D. 29.0N 95.0W
E. 13/0530Z TO 13/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Leaves in an hour.

Ahhhh, thanks a lot Sandy. I will likely be asleep in my bed when the strongest wind reports come out, but this shall be a most interesting and intriguing mission.

With possibly 7 more hours over water, what can we expect? Possible variables are land interaction, dry air, and shear. But Humberto has fought everything thrown at him. Can Humberto fight these variables off before landfall? The answers should come in just a couple hours!

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

It looks to me that there is a possibility that Humberto could parallel the coast for a while before making it inland, allowing for some further intensification. I think the landfall could be closer to the LA/TX border than currently forecast. Looks to me to be moving more NE than NNE. Of course all it would take would be for a slight wobble to the left to completely change everything.

Starting to remind me of Danny in 1997. Had it come in near New Orleans, it would have been about 50 kt. Instead it went the long way to Pascagoula and made it up to about 75 kt.

[Steve]

Always difficult to tell with the IR when they don't have the radar overlay, but center appears to be slightly east of the next forecast point (assuming that one is updated<--- see bottom of IR loop). So this could arc across central Louisiana a little farther south than the 11pm advisory - which if there is any trend or indication, could actually pass near or south of Alexandria. Just sayin'...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... 4_loop.php

And here's the 11pm 5 day.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[southerngale]

Well, fear not...the possibility is there that the storm could loop back down to the Gulf is very possible. Heck the center could swing back down and go directly over Baton Rouge, New Orleans, or the MS Gulf Coast. The future of the system is actually more interesting than this landfall. A loop is or several over land is very possible. Stay tuned....

I saw about 4 models on the Wunderground model map showed a loop. I think I recall one of the pro mets saying he didn't think that was likely, but I'm not sure. (I was gone for several hours this afternoon and evening and have been speed reading since I got home)
Anyway, for you, or anyone else who knows, what would cause that to happen? Shouldn't the next trough that's coming down pick it up and pull it off to the east or northeast?

[BigA]

47 mph sustained winds, 59 mph gusts at Galveston Pleasure Pier.

[WindRunner]

yeah, it's been east of the forecast points the entire time. Forecast from advisory #1 is already 39nm off 15 hours in, and advisory #2 is 14nm off 7 hours in. They aren't doing exceptionally well so far . . .

[vbhoutex]

Well, fear not...the possibility is there that the storm could loop back down to the Gulf is very possible. Heck the center could swing back down and go directly over Baton Rouge, New Orleans, or the MS Gulf Coast. The future of the system is actually more interesting than this landfall. A loop is or several over land is very possible. Stay tuned....

I saw about 4 models on the Wunderground model map showed a loop. I think I recall one of the pro mets saying he didn't think that was likely, but I'm not sure. (I was gone for several hours this afternoon and evening and have been speed reading since I got home)
Anyway, for you, or anyone else who knows, what would cause that to happen. Shouldn't the next trough that's coming down pick it up and pull it off to the east or northeast?

The trough has to be close enough in time to pick it up and also be strong enough to. Humberto is riding the edge of a high pressure and may be too far East for the incoming trough to get to it before he heads back south around the other side of the high, or I should say as the remnant low that was Humberto does this.

[Steve]

But check this out on radar LC. The heaviest weather on the north side of the circulation appears to be making a run for the coast. But with the center kind of pulsing, you can't tell if the circulation is the yellow right south of those reds or if it is the green hook kind of to the ENE of where it started. Which one of these areas is the center will determine where the landfall is. Hard to tell:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... h&loop=yes

Then you go down to Houston/Galveston and see the same thing. Landfall could be soon if it's making a run.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... x&loop=yes

Need another hour of sat to tell for sure.

Steve