TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wxmann_91]

45 kt in 120 hours? Very interesting... I tend to think it will be stronger than that.

I think the NHC is playing it conservative with the late weakening. IF EIGHT does not strengthen appreciably within the next 72 hr, it's going to be moving in an environment characterized by 30 kt shear... while moving at a fairly slow pace. If it strengthens to a hurricane before then, I think 45 kt is a good estimate. If it does not, it could very well dissipate at that time. I know Derek is adamently opposed to the GFS, but I'm pretty sure that it's right about the fact that there will be a TUTT that's going to shear this system in some way.

[hurricanetrack]

Accuwx is, in my opinion, in for another intensity bust going by that graphic. Category two? Come on....the upper level winds look very hostile at 200mb in 120 hours along the potential path of Ingrid-to-be.

The real concern to me is this- once this makes it past the shear- then what do we have? And where will we have it?

Note too that the NHC rolled up the EURO so its track is not likely to pan out (had it at like 30 and 60 in a week or so). Once on the other side of that shear zone, greener pastures await- perhaps so.

[cpdaman]

shear and intensity forecasts are not reliable beyond the short term. having said that the level of confidence in a sheared enviornment does not seem low

donald southerland is leaning toward fish because most storms climo wise in this area get picked up by a trough

he says later in the period a floyd like set up could develop but it needs to be watched and climo still suggests fishy for the lower 48

[Sanibel]

Accuweather sensationalizing it towards CONUS - of course.


Way too early for a slow moving storm. I think climatology would prefer oceanic track for a slow mover.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You know what, td 8 was the first time i ever made
a forecast graphically and put it on imageshack.

As of now, I have NO IDEA where this will
go, there are too many complicating
synoptic factors.

I will trust the NHC, my forecast was pretty
useless, as every synoptic certainty has
been thrown out of my window.

[BigA]

Would a more southerly track decrease the amount of shear it will run into, or is it pretty much latitude independent?

Does look to be organizing a bit on the latest infrareds.

[ericinmia]

I am guessing many of you haven't read Derek's ideas on why the global models were suggesting such high shear?

He was suggesting that they were developing the wave behind td8 and then creating high shear over this storm. He doesn't believe that will pan out exactly like that though. Check the AF forum for his words...
-Eric

Remember, the models aren't everything! This is one of those times that I defer to the advice of pro-mets, and completely shelve my opinions. This is beyond me....

[wxmann_91]

You know what, td 8 was the first time i ever made
a forecast graphically and put it on imageshack.

As of now, I have NO IDEA where this will
go, there are too many complicating
synoptic factors.

I will trust the NHC, my forecast was pretty
useless, as every synoptic certainty has
been thrown out of my window.

There are plenty of synoptic certainties.

200mb streamline analysis: (at end) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/forecast_text.html
...shows a massive TUTT in the western Atlantic, and the water vapor concurs. This storm will run into that brick wall of shear. It's not really latitude dependent, there's nowhere to hide. Only way is to fight it off, and that can only be achieved if this system can strengthen before hitting the brick wall, as I've already stated.

Winds at the 850mb level per streamline analysis, and soundings from the Lesser Antilles, are WSW. Now I ask, how can the storm move WNW, especially considering how weak it is right now?

The spurious system is influencing the track, but not the shear. The shear is going to be there in one form or another.

[hurricanetrack]

RE: fish

Well, per 18Z GFS only, at 144 hours, just a day past the NHC forecast, a nice narrow ridge sets back in over most of the north and west Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

Then, a day later, one week from now, it gets stonger:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Not sure how this would just plow north through a strengthening ridge of high pressure at 500mb. Also note too that no trough is coming in from the CONUS- just good ole zonal flow- west to east with a nice 588 ridge developing in the western Atlantic.

Let's take a look WAY out at 180 hours:

Assuming the cyclone is now well past 60 degrees longitude, this is what is to its north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

Not bad. If it can survive that long.

[Sanibel]

The ridge is much weaker than I thought when I discussed it with Derek yesterday am. That's why it is drifting WNW. The center is currently at the top of the convection giving the illusion of a more west track.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Derek Ortt]

Also about model shear forecasts

Some here re placing a rediculous amount of credence on these forecasts. These are known to be almost worthless due to very poor data coverage over the ocean.


Lets see how many busts there have been since 2004

1. Shear increased over Bonnie unexpectedly
2. Frances was sheared unexpectedly
3. Jeanne was forecast to be sheared before landfall much like this TD... shear enver came
4. Emily hit some shear in central Caribbean
5. Irene... enough said
6. Katrina was sheared just before landfall
7. Rita was sheared before land
8. Wilma was supposed to be sheared... outflow was merely enhanced
9. Chris... enough said
10. Ernesto... enough said
11. Dean... SHIPS had similar shear values and there was no shear


these are just 11 of the cases that I have looked very stupid when using model shear forecasts... there are far more

[CrazyC83]

Also about model shear forecasts

Some here re placing a rediculous amount of credence on these forecasts. These are known to be almost worthless due to very poor data coverage over the ocean.


Lets see how many busts there have been since 2004

1. Shear increased over Bonnie unexpectedly
2. Frances was sheared unexpectedly
3. Jeanne was forecast to be sheared before landfall much like this TD... shear enver came
4. Emily hit some shear in central Caribbean
5. Irene... enough said
6. Katrina was sheared just before landfall
7. Rita was sheared before land
8. Wilma was supposed to be sheared... outflow was merely enhanced
9. Chris... enough said
10. Ernesto... enough said
11. Dean... SHIPS had similar shear values and there was no shear


these are just 11 of the cases that I have looked very stupid when using model shear forecasts... there are far more

Good points; I don't really see the shear coming in. So much of it is conditional. The dry air will slow it in the short term, but the medium term I see a dangerous hurricane possibly forming.

[miamicanes177]

Accuweather has been outperforming the NHC this year and I am inclined to agree with their category 2 intensity forecast. I'll stick with the hot hand so to speak.

[AtlanticWind]

Also about model shear forecasts

Some here re placing a rediculous amount of credence on these forecasts. These are known to be almost worthless due to very poor data coverage over the ocean.


Lets see how many busts there have been since 2004

1. Shear increased over Bonnie unexpectedly
2. Frances was sheared unexpectedly
3. Jeanne was forecast to be sheared before landfall much like this TD... shear enver came
4. Emily hit some shear in central Caribbean
5. Irene... enough said
6. Katrina was sheared just before landfall
7. Rita was sheared before land
8. Wilma was supposed to be sheared... outflow was merely enhanced
9. Chris... enough said
10. Ernesto... enough said
11. Dean... SHIPS had similar shear values and there was no shear


these are just 11 of the cases that I have looked very stupid when using model shear forecasts... there are far more

I agree that shear forecasts can be questionable , but what else do have to go by when you are making a 3 to 5 day forecast?

[CrazyC83]

Also about model shear forecasts

Some here re placing a rediculous amount of credence on these forecasts. These are known to be almost worthless due to very poor data coverage over the ocean.


Lets see how many busts there have been since 2004

1. Shear increased over Bonnie unexpectedly
2. Frances was sheared unexpectedly
3. Jeanne was forecast to be sheared before landfall much like this TD... shear enver came
4. Emily hit some shear in central Caribbean
5. Irene... enough said
6. Katrina was sheared just before landfall
7. Rita was sheared before land
8. Wilma was supposed to be sheared... outflow was merely enhanced
9. Chris... enough said
10. Ernesto... enough said
11. Dean... SHIPS had similar shear values and there was no shear


these are just 11 of the cases that I have looked very stupid when using model shear forecasts... there are far more

I agree that shear forecasts can be questionable , but what else do have to go by when you are making a 3 to 5 day forecast?

Sometimes you have to go against the models and go with your own opinions...I am sensing about 100 kt instead of 45 kt at 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

You go that far in intensity Crazy?

[brunota2003]

Accuweather has been outperforming the NHC this year and I am inclined to agree with their category 2 intensity forecast. I'll stick with the hot hand so to speak.

Well, if Accuwx has been outperforming the NHC, I'm still waiting for Gabrielle to impact me as a Category 2...

[Ola]

Is this thing even moving?

I have something to point out. Notice that the reason the NHC forecast is still north of the islands is that they averaged using the UKMET. "THE FORECAST TRACK IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS"

UKMET has it going way north of gfs and gfdl. They didnt even mention the weakness in the ridge allowing it to move north in the 11pm discussion. Only mentioned that it would weaken the steering.

[HURAKAN]

Latest: