Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Jagno]

primarily rainfall

even though gusts will likely be over 90 mph in the E eyewall, the rgreatest threat remains rain

Derek; In this still hurricane damaged area a 90 mph wind is very much a HUGE threat along with the rains. Many of us still have semi rebuit homes and many are still in Fema trailers.

[WindRunner]

I posted early and everyone is posting so fast here it got skipped lol which is OK but my question is I am Port arthur Golden Triangle area WHAT AM I TO EXPECT with this I know it is a hurricane but how hard are we goin to get it?

Looking at Port Neches on the radar, the official NHC track at 11 took it only a half-mile west of you. The VDM shows the center only 3nmi off that track (so far). At this point, you'll probably get a lot of heavy rain and potentially high winds . . . but a deviation of 15 miles either way off the track could make the winds avoid you completely. Being such a small storm, it's kind of hard to be too certain of the conditions at any one point this far in advance, but you'll be getting a decent storm regardless.

[PTrackerLA]

We are so very thankful this didn't become a depression on say Tuesday morning. I know the UL conditions weren't as favorable but we could easily be looking at a cat 3 since this is already a cane.

[CrazyC83]

primarily rainfall

even though gusts will likely be over 90 mph in the E eyewall, the rgreatest threat remains rain

Derek; In this still hurricane damaged area a 90 mph wind is very much a HUGE threat along with the rains. Many of us still have semi rebuit homes and many are still in Fema trailers.

Mobile homes (including FEMA trailers) should be abandoned at this moment. It's a small wind field so you don't have to go too far.

[WindRunner]

I followed them on radar, they went right through the middle. VDM fix is about 3nm west of the forecast track from 11pm.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the eyewall is brushing onshore right now, where the eye actually crosses land remains to be seen.

I think this radar loop clearly shows what PTrackerLA is referring to.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[drezee]

42035 B 0450 29.22 -94.40 0 0 180 33.0 60.2 - - - - 29.28 -0.47 80.6 84.9 77.7


buoy 33 kts sustained with 991 pressure gusts to 70 mph!

[brunota2003]

Ah, but hind-sight is 50/50. It's easy to sit back now and go "Oh, they should of done this and that at such and such time." Truth is, it is easy to be an armchair referee...try actually being out there on the field and having to make the calls, based on what you know at the time, right then.

[cpdaman]

radar showed best structure about 30 minutes ago

this is feeling the effects of land and thankfully

this trend should continue but it did make it to cat 1.

[JessRomero]

Thank so much I greatly appreciate the help I am just not wanting to sleep tonight when I have to babies and a tornado or flooding start with no warning I hope our winds here don't get to bad what time should this start?

[drezee]

42035 B 0450 29.22 -94.40 0 0 180 33.0 60.2 - - - - 29.28 -0.47 80.6 84.9 77.7


buoy 33 kts sustained with 991 pressure gusts to 70 mph!

[WindRunner]

42035 B 0450 29.22 -94.40 0 0 180 33.0 60.2 - - - - 29.28 -0.47 80.6 84.9 77.7


buoy 33 kts sustained with 991 pressure gusts to 70 mph!

Yeah, it probably just missed the dead-on center and got the reading by about a mile or two to the east.

[CrazyC83]

Ah, but hind-sight is 50/50. It's easy to sit back now and go "Oh, they should of done this and that at such and such time." Truth is, it is easy to be an armchair referee...try actually being out there on the field and having to make the calls, based on what you know at the time, right then.

Not to mention the meteorologists were probably divided just as we were. I've felt for hours this could be a hurricane (actually this afternoon I mused about it) while others weren't so sure. I've been wrong many times myself...

[CrazyC83]

Thank so much I greatly appreciate the help I am just not wanting to sleep tonight when I have to babies and a tornado or flooding start with no warning I hope our winds here don't get to bad what time should this start?

If you aren't in a floodplain or storm surge zone (that shouldn't be a huge factor IMO), then take precautions as if it was an EF1 tornado or a derecho with 90 mph gusts approaching.

[drezee]

13/05 42035 29.2 -94.4 27.0 25.4 180 33 G 60 120 64 991.7-16.0 29.4 * 42035

[WindRunner]

Thank so much I greatly appreciate the help I am just not wanting to sleep tonight when I have to babies and a tornado or flooding start with no warning I hope our winds here don't get to bad what time should this start?

The rain will probably slowly start to pick up starting in about 90 minutes, assuming it's got a pretty constant motion.

[PTrackerLA]

Landfall shortly, it's VERY close to shore now. Landfall near Chambers/Jefferson County border or slightly east IMO.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[drezee]

13/05 42035 29.2 -94.4 27.0 25.4 180 33 G 60 120 64 991.7-16.0 29.4 * 42035

[WindRunner]

Twc just said it was the GUSTS not the MAX SUSTAINED winds that were hurricane force...

As of 11pm, yes, this was true. New recon data is in that fully supports a hurricane with sustained winds.

[opera ghost]

Thank so much I greatly appreciate the help I am just not wanting to sleep tonight when I have to babies and a tornado or flooding start with no warning I hope our winds here don't get to bad what time should this start?

Just grab a cup of coffee and wait as patiently as you can. It will arrive when it arrives and stressing out before it is actually there only saps your energy to deal with it once it's arrived.

We're not looking at a Katrina situation though. If you live in a good sturdy home and aren't directly under the eye or in a freak tornado or flash flood there shouldn't be any threat to life and limb.

If you live in an area prone to flooding, you can put nervous energy into getting valuables up off the ground even if it turns out to not be needed. =)