Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[tailgater]

With the surface data showing 83 knots on the other one. In the 98 knots at flight level, there is no question in my mind this is a cat2 now.

I'm sorry for calling it a she. Also this is not as strong as Rita, but people had no time to get out of this ones way unlike Rita. So this should be bad.

I think that the actual surface winds could be as strong as Rita's, with these deeper T-storms transfering more energy to surface. These small storms sure can wind-up quickly.

[deltadog03]

should be noted that I just seen a 99kt at 3100 feet (on radar)

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 130714
TCUAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

[NewOrleansStunner]

I predicted 24 hours ago that this would become a Cat 2 storm. Too bad I didn't post it here for you to read.

What can New Orleans expect from this?

[WindRunner]

who wants some crow for overnight snack?

With all due respect, you should probably have some yourself. It seems your statements that a) it wouldn't become a hurricane and b) that it wouldn't reach Category 2 status have both been proven wrong.

It hasn't made Cat 2 yet officially

No, no it hasn't. But we should only have to wait a few more minutes (until it makes landfall) before we know for sure . . . and I don't see how the NHC can avoid upgrading this, but apparently they did. It'll be interesting to see their 5am discussion . . . though personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade post-season.

[Scorpion]

So much for Cat 2

[KWT]

If its not upgraded now it will almost certainly be upgraded at the end of the season, flight level winds support an upgrade. The only reason IMO why they won't upgrade is because the eye is now starting to head inland.

[deltadog03]

ok, well I am not getting crow as I thought this would get to atleast a weak cane. Well, I was underdone. This will be upgraded to a cat 2 after the season analisys. I am sure. The proof is def. there. Also (mild neg. comment towards NHC) Why was there NO cane warnings after this was CLEARLY strengthening this evening.

[NewOrleansStunner]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

What are the best onshore weather stations to follow this storm? Orange? Any stations closer to the coast?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They must be reducing it alot. Even so the stronger winds in this system are closer to the system, which would mean a much closer to .9 to .95 reduce. But we will see later this year.

[WindRunner]

Lightning going crazy as well now, with convection firing well over land.

The Sabine, TX CMAN station is now reporting winds at 54mph as of 0700z.

[rainman]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LCH&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

What are the best onshore weather stations to follow this storm? Orange? Any stations closer to the coast?

kbpt is the closest to my knowledge

[WindRunner]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LCH&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

What are the best onshore weather stations to follow this storm? Orange? Any stations closer to the coast?

I would suggest KBPT (west of Port Arthur, SW of Nederland) or Orange.

The Sabine, TX coastal station is doing pretty well in addition to those two.

[BUD]

That is why I never down play a TS.Things can change in a heart beat.Thats why I hate how some states gov. down play storms.I hope everyone will be ok in TX and no one gets hurt.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 130717
AF306 0309A HUMBERTO HDOB 24 20070913
070730 2944N 09330W 8423 01583 9990 +148 +999 158041 042 031 006 05
070800 2943N 09331W 8428 01575 9990 +148 +999 152037 041 041 013 01
070830 2943N 09333W 8423 01577 9990 +137 +999 143042 044 041 018 01
070900 2942N 09335W 8427 01567 9990 +136 +999 142048 051 039 023 01
070930 2942N 09337W 8423 01566 9990 +136 +999 137050 052 041 032 01
071000 2942N 09339W 8426 01551 9990 +138 +999 127051 056 044 039 01
071030 2941N 09341W 8403 01590 9990 +138 +999 150043 050 052 031 01
071100 2941N 09343W 8346 01659 9990 +134 +999 165046 048 039 018 05
071130 2940N 09345W 8438 01559 9990 +143 +999 168045 049 041 015 01
071200 2940N 09347W 8408 01583 9990 +144 +999 167046 049 038 015 01
071230 2940N 09349W 8435 01555 9990 +154 +999 172050 052 038 005 01
071300 2939N 09350W 8427 01558 9990 +160 +999 171053 054 045 004 01
071330 2939N 09352W 8427 01555 9990 +152 +999 169053 055 046 004 01
071400 2939N 09354W 8423 01557 9990 +144 +999 171057 059 044 013 01
071430 2938N 09356W 8425 01544 9990 +139 +999 168057 061 047 018 01
071500 2938N 09357W 8435 01530 9990 +138 +999 172062 065 050 013 01
071530 2938N 09359W 8419 01540 9990 +143 +999 176068 072 053 020 05
071600 2937N 09400W 8418 01531 9990 +160 +999 176069 072 055 008 01
071630 2936N 09401W 8429 01514 9990 +161 +999 177068 070 056 014 05
071700 2935N 09402W 8426 01519 9990 +174 +999 182072 074 999 999 05

Still finding some good winds as they fly back west into the storm . . .

[NewOrleansStunner]

Any guesses as to highest wind gust over land this storm will produce?

[WindRunner]

Very odd RECCO here . . . though useful, of course

URNT11 KNHC 130720
97779 07160 51296 94058 15300 17074 16/// /2449
RMK AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 18
SWS = 054KTS
RADAR CENTER FIX 29.7N 94.17W, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURACY 5NM

[WindRunner]

Probably sustained to minimal hurricane force along the coast, and then gusts to hurricane force maybe all the way up to Port Arthur or so. But that's just wild guestimation on my part.

[Thunder44]

They must be reducing it alot. Even so the stronger winds in this system are closer to the system, which would mean a much closer to .9 to .95 reduce. But we will see later this year.

98kt at 850mb FL level standard reduction is 80%. Which is about 78kts (90mph) at the surface.