TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

You go that far in intensity Crazy?

If it misses the islands and the shear does not come to tell, what is there to stop it? Although I don't see much short-term strengthening due to dry air...

[hurricanetrack]

As quite a fan of hurricanes in general, I hope that Derek is correct and that the shear does not come to pass. If this is north of the islands and is a cat-2 hurricane- awesome. We'll leave it at that. I don't want to ruffle too many feathers farther west....if you catch my drift. I just want to see a hurricane in the western Atlantic- that's all.

[GeneratorPower]

As quite a fan of hurricanes in general, I hope that Derek is correct and that the shear does not come to pass. If this is north of the islands and is a cat-2 hurricane- awesome. We'll leave it at that. I don't want to ruffle too many feathers farther west....if you catch my drift. I just want to see a hurricane in the western Atlantic- that's all.

Refreshing.

[Brent]

As quite a fan of hurricanes in general, I hope that Derek is correct and that the shear does not come to pass. If this is north of the islands and is a cat-2 hurricane- awesome. We'll leave it at that. I don't want to ruffle too many feathers farther west....if you catch my drift. I just want to see a hurricane in the western Atlantic- that's all.

[hurricanetrack]

Hey, nothing wrong with wanting see a little 'cane action north of 22-24 degrees latitude this season! Seeing as I don't cause hurricanes, it matters little what I want or don't want. They will come and go whether or not I am here.

But it is odd that we have not seen any hurricanes north of 24 degrees thus far. Like many others have posted, it's feast or famine in that category- the two we've seen were blockbusters. The rest were mid-summer replacements.

[hurricanetrack]

Look at the new GFS- the 850 vort loop shows TD8 just "going away" it evaporates in to nothing over time....classic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hey, nothing wrong with wanting see a little 'cane action north of 22-24 degrees latitude this season! Seeing as I don't cause hurricanes, it matters little what I want or don't want. They will come and go whether or not I am here.

But it is odd that we have not seen any hurricanes north of 24 degrees thus far. Like many others have posted, it's feast or famine in that category- the two we've seen were blockbusters. The rest were mid-summer replacements.

I could of never ever said it better. Thank you sir.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the center relocated more towards the convection in the morning.

[superfly]

Hey, nothing wrong with wanting see a little 'cane action north of 22-24 degrees latitude this season! Seeing as I don't cause hurricanes, it matters little what I want or don't want. They will come and go whether or not I am here.

But it is odd that we have not seen any hurricanes north of 24 degrees thus far. Like many others have posted, it's feast or famine in that category- the two we've seen were blockbusters. The rest were mid-summer replacements.

Humberto has something to say about that (in all likelihood).

[Scorpion]

Look at the new GFS- the 850 vort loop shows TD8 just "going away" it evaporates in to nothing over time....classic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Not including Dean, the GFS has been horrible this year. It didn't predict Felix or Humberto at all.

[CrazyC83]

Humberto has shown us how far off intensity forecasts can bust. Even though I am way off the models, I still think we will see major Hurricane Ingrid by early next week...

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, this interest in this one sure has dried up....the pages on Deppression 8 were moving fast and furious until it started to look kinda crappy and, also I think the drop in interest is also beause of the forecast for it not to be a hurricane or if so, only a minor one......

I can understand though, when ya have 2 cat 5s....everything else seems so minimal and boring, lol compared to watching those beauties develop.....I still think it's possible for a minimal hurricane to develop. I know they are forecasting really high shear in a couple of days, but I think a minimal cane can get going before than time anyway.

We should still get a couple of intense storms yet this season, just have to be patient......
Maybe we'll have a couple more spinners forming in the gulf.....

[KWT]

I don't think its the fact that this one doesn't look quite as good but more to do with the fact a rapidly developing hurricane has formed and is about to hit Texas maybe...just maybe...has somethnig to do with it!!

I have to say I don't think it looks all that bad right now evn if it is being sheared a little right now, this could just as easily be upped to a TS or be kept as a TD, it'll just depend probably on what the forecaster at the time feels about the system I'm guessing.
As for shear, I'm of the same idea as Derek, the models are HORRID at that sort of forecasting, it more often gets it wrong rather then right!
Saying that at least there is a feature that could cause it this time but will it act inthe way the models are forecasting, its hard to say right now.

Remember even if shear does hit it, as long a sit can survive it can always strengthen later and will need watching throughout, it could just as easily pull a Andrew or a Chris 06.

[Brent]

A rapidly developing unexpected Cat 2 hurricane making landfall in SE TX/SW LA or a TD days from land that may or may not strengthen and/or affect anyone. Not a hard choice. Interest for this one will go back up dramatically once Humberto is out of the picture.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is now under the northern side of the convection. Cimss shows that it is also, with a 2.6t=37 knots. This is a soild tropical storm, and to me the 4th best looking system of 2007.

They are
Felix
Dean
Humberto
"Td8"
Gabby
Chantel

[bob rulz]

A rapidly developing unexpected Cat 2 hurricane making landfall in SE TX/SW LA or a TD days from land that may or may not strengthen and/or affect anyone. Not a hard choice. Interest for this one will go back up dramatically once Humberto is out of the picture.

Cat 2? Since when? It made landfall at 85mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

85h data had it at near 13.8 north/47 west. It is partly under the convection now. There is no reason to hold back.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A rapidly developing unexpected Cat 2 hurricane making landfall in SE TX/SW LA or a TD days from land that may or may not strengthen and/or affect anyone. Not a hard choice. Interest for this one will go back up dramatically once Humberto is out of the picture.

Cat 2? Since when? It made landfall at 85mph.

With the eyewall 83 knot surface wind it is likely was. But we will know in post season.

[Vortex]

745 utc looks like a 45kt storm..shear has rekaxed for now and the LLC appears to be embedded with the deeper convection..Expect Ingrid at 11am..

[AJC3]

745 utc looks like a 45kt storm..shear has rekaxed for now and the LLC appears to be embedded with the deeper convection..Expect Ingrid at 11am..

Once first light visible images are available, I think you'll find that this is not the case - I expect that the LLC will continue to be at the extreme northern edge of the convective mass, similar to what the 05Z AMSU/ASMRE imagery was showing. The vortex does appear to have tightened, however the NNE shear continues to hammer away at '8', and this needs to change if '8' is to become significantly better organized.