TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TheEuropean]

13/0600 UTC 12.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

This should bei Ingrid within a few minutes...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

745 utc looks like a 45kt storm..shear has rekaxed for now and the LLC appears to be embedded with the deeper convection..Expect Ingrid at 11am..

Once first light visible images are available, I think you'll find that this is not the case - I expect that the LLC will continue to be at the extreme northern edge of the convective mass, similar to what the 05Z AMSU/ASMRE imagery was showing. The vortex does appear to have tightened, however the NNE shear continues to hammer away at '8', and this needs to change if '8' is to become significantly better organized.

I used that(85h) to make the post above. In the LLC is now partly under the convection...This looks much better then most sheared tropical storms and should be upgraded. But that is just my thinking.

[TheEuropean]

It is not upgraded to Ingrid at 5am.

[Coredesat]

Not only is it not upgraded, but the forecast has been scaled back to a peak of 45 kt. Looks like there's quite an unfavorable environment ahead.

[cycloneye]

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 930
MILES...1495 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

It will be the mother of all shears ahead not letting it develop strongly.

[Emmett_Brown]

NHC not very bullish... forecast is a little to the right of the last one, and weaker at 120 hours. NHC Discussion at 5am:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AREA WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN...THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. TRACK GUI DACE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND
WEAKENING. THE UK AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT
LONGER BUT THIS IS NOT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 13.9N 47.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.5N 48.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 14.8N 49.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 54.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 35 KT

[jlauderdal]

NHC not very bullish... forecast is a little to the right of the last one, and weaker at 120 hours. NHC Discussion at 5am:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM
STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AREA WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN...THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. TRACK GUI DACE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND
WEAKENING. THE UK AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT
LONGER BUT THIS IS NOT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 13.9N 47.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.5N 48.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 14.8N 49.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 54.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 35 KT

Its one of the more bearish forecasts I have seen. However, I remember a few years ago where would Avila would right a disco and the forecaster on the next shift would see it very differently, sometimes avial was right and sometimes he wasn't.

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmmm... this system appears atfirst glance to have a lot going for it. Lots of moist air, and a well defined circulation. Overall, the structure is still improving slowly but steadily IMO. Notice on this IR loop that a nice band is forming in the NW quadrant. Overall, looks like a hurricane in the making to me.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=cta&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

Granted, the cirulation is on the N side of the convection... looks to me as if this will keep the storm on a more W track for this next day or so. Often we see TDs and weak TS's "follow" their convective clump... these LLCs get pulled more toward the convection. If i were forecasting this, I would be calling for a track to the left of the models at least in the near term.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, based upon the latest discussion, this thing is history....They are even weakening it more than before saying large shear amounts are likely and unlike earlier, they seem very confident that this will be a non-event, and I"m doubting with this rate if it will even survive at all no matter how much it gets going today and tomorrow...This will be the first time this season that a season would have to face extreme amounts of shear, there's been a little, but not extreme...

[wzrgirl1]

it's actually looking better then ever....that is going to be some pretty strong shear i guess

[bvigal]

[knotimpaired]

We had rain here on the island and lost our Dish.

What did the Tropical Update say?

[Meso]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

wow, based upon the latest discussion, this thing is history....They are even weakening it more than before saying large shear amounts are likely and unlike earlier, they seem very confident that this will be a non-event, and I"m doubting with this rate if it will even survive at all no matter how much it gets going today and tomorrow...This will be the first time this season that a season would have to face extreme amounts of shear, there's been a little, but not extreme...

Remember Barry, that thing had 40+ knots of shear.

This looks like a real tropical storm that is slightly sheared right now. Better then Barry ever did. I don't understand the double standard.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looks really good for a storm, but "Ingrid"-to-be is crawling.

[chrisnnavarre]

Still looks really good on first visuals. Guess NHC is placing all it's eggs in the basket that shear will kill this off. Looks like they are also betting the farm that convection to the south will continue to proceed southwest disconnecting itself from the LLC which will dance its way northwest. Considering the proximity to the islands to the east, wouldn't a statement at least somewhat acknowledging the possibility still exists that this could continue westward under the ridge and possibly intensify have been more prudent. ???

If things don't work out for them look for a major shift change at around 11am.

[punkyg]

I think i see the center!
I can clearly see it between the convection band and the ball of convection.

[Blown Away]

NHC - Weak TS well NE of Islands.
Accuweather - Cat 2 NW of PR
Models - Weak system moving NNW

[superfly]

Still looks really good on first visuals. Guess NHC is placing all it's eggs in the basket that shear will kill this off.

It does not look "really good." The LLC is completely exposed north of the main convection.

[wzrgirl1]

Still looks really good on first visuals. Guess NHC is placing all it's eggs in the basket that shear will kill this off.

It does not look "really good." The LLC is completely exposed north of the main convection.

for a td it does look pretty good I think....still forecast to be a ts soon