TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Looking a little ragged.

[wzrgirl1]

trying to pinpoint exactly where the center is....hurakan you have a guess as to where it is now?

[Blown Away]

Clip On TD8 from Accuweather This Morning...
TD 8 Still Poorly Organized...
Tropical Depression 8 remains poorly organized as it drifts across the Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean. At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center was located near 13.9 north and 47.5 west, or about 930 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression was moving toward the west at 10 mph, much slower than Dean had tracked. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The upper-level pattern over this system will continue to improve and should favor development. The steering flow near this feature will continue to take it west to west-northwest. The system should move into the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or early Monday. Residents and people with interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep a close watch on this system.

Wow, talk about a different point of view.

[AJC3]

wow, based upon the latest discussion, this thing is history....They are even weakening it more than before saying large shear amounts are likely and unlike earlier, they seem very confident that this will be a non-event, and I"m doubting with this rate if it will even survive at all no matter how much it gets going today and tomorrow...This will be the first time this season that a season would have to face extreme amounts of shear, there's been a little, but not extreme...

Remember Barry, that thing had 40+ knots of shear.

This looks like a real tropical storm that is slightly sheared right now. Better then Barry ever did. I don't understand the double standard.

There's no double standard. We're talking about two completely different animals. Barry, at it's best, had a weak and shallow warm-core but was a mostly baroclinic system. The strong shear above Barry was divergent and actually aided ascent, which was the main mechanism for lowering surface pressures. The strong mid level shear above TD 8 is not helping it. The circulation is tightening via warm core processes (convection/latent heat release, etc) - in spite of the shear.

[HURAKAN]

trying to pinpoint exactly where the center is....hurakan you have a guess as to where it is now?

Do you see it? The convection is all to the south except for a burst to the west.

[AJC3]

Clip On TD8 from Accuweather This Morning...
TD 8 Still Poorly Organized...
Tropical Depression 8 remains poorly organized as it drifts across the Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean. At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center was located near 13.9 north and 47.5 west, or about 930 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression was moving toward the west at 10 mph, much slower than Dean had tracked. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The upper-level pattern over this system will continue to improve and should favor development. The steering flow near this feature will continue to take it west to west-northwest. The system should move into the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or early Monday. Residents and people with interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep a close watch on this system.

Wow, talk about a different point of view.

I don't see this as an entirely different point of view. After all, in the short term, conditions are expected to become more favorable - which NHC acknowledges in their TCD...and in their forecast which shows intensification in the short term.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What amazes me this year is not the # of storms but how quickly they can change. It seems just yesterday there was really nothing in the gulf and then Hurricane. The NHC calls for unusual high shear ahead of TD8. Maybe it will do a Andrew but I hope not. What I'm saying. It doesn't take much for these systems to redevelop.

[wzrgirl1]

yes hurakan i see it now that you magnified it.....wonder if the convection will start to consolidate over the llc and if so, will that change the overall track, probably not

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

wow, based upon the latest discussion, this thing is history....They are even weakening it more than before saying large shear amounts are likely and unlike earlier, they seem very confident that this will be a non-event, and I"m doubting with this rate if it will even survive at all no matter how much it gets going today and tomorrow...This will be the first time this season that a season would have to face extreme amounts of shear, there's been a little, but not extreme...

Remember Barry, that thing had 40+ knots of shear.

This looks like a real tropical storm that is slightly sheared right now. Better then Barry ever did. I don't understand the double standard.

There's no double standard. We're talking about two completely different animals. Barry, at it's best, had a weak and shallow warm-core but was a mostly baroclinic system. The strong shear above Barry was divergent and actually aided ascent, which was the main mechanism for lowering surface pressures. The strong mid level shear above TD 8 is not helping it. The circulation is tightening via warm core processes (convection/latent heat release, etc) - in spite of the shear.

I understand that...But many systems have been sheared systems and had tropical storm force winds. Quickscat did have a area of tropical storm force winds with this about 12 hours ago. In the Sab,cimss t has holded at 2.5 through out the day. This system is getting sheared, but I do expect it to get favorable enough to refire convection over the core.

[Thunder44]

QS pass from 9:01 UTC this morning, shows some 40kt to 50kt barbs south of the center. This should be upgraded to a TS later this morning:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

QS pass from 8:46 UTC this morning, shows some 40kt to 50kt barbs south of the center. This should be upgraded to a TS later this morning:

This is why I've been trying to say for the last 24 hours. That this was a tropical storm. We will see if convection can fire over the LLC. It should because the convection firing to the north(band) is a sign that the northern shear is weaking.

[tgenius]

I find it somewhat interesting that the GOM storm and TD8 were vieing for the Humberto name and it turns out the GOM storm ended up becoming a hurricane out of it!

I would imagine that it wasn't upgraded at 5am to ensure some time on visuals; If not upgraded at 11, I'd almost bet it would be at 5pm (assuming of course that it can stay together, which it appears to have done pretty well.)

[AJC3]

I understand that...But many systems have been sheared systems and had tropical storm force winds. Quickscat did have a area of tropical storm force winds with this about 12 hours ago. In the Sab,cimss t has holded at 2.5 through out the day. This system is getting sheared, but I do expect it to get favorable enough to refire convection over the core.

That's subjectivity - not a double standard. As an agency, one would expect NHC to strive for consistency - however, you have to remember NHC is not one person. One specialist's 30 knots intensity estimate is another's 35. You very well might have a TS out there. However QS data is subject to interpretation and error (those TS force winds on the south side are rain flagged on the Manati web site) - so are satellite intensity estimates - a number of which have assumed a center fix underneath the convection which MW data clearly showed to be erroneous. Without in situ data (recon), one could subjectively go one way or the other. I really don't want to argue with you over 5-10 knots of wind in a strongly sheared system, located in the central Atlantic, several days from approaching any land mass.

Just understand that NHC has a conservative forecast philosophy that has served them well for many years, and that there is a considerable amount of subjectivity in TC analysis. Things are not always as clear cut as they seem, especially if you dig a little deeper.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Depression Eight is near tropical storm strength, and may get named today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a circular, well-defined circulation with a believable 40 mph wind reading near the center. Satellite loops of TD 8 show a modest improvement in appearance, with the spiral band to the north getting better defined. This band is readily seen in microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3).
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200709

This clip is from Dr. Masters...He seems to think T.D. 8 is getting better organized.

[Buck]

This needs to be a TS at 11. Sure it's very ragged but it has a well-defined, closed LLC and most definitely the winds to support TS status. Gabrielle center was removed from the convection for much of it's entire existance and it was easily classified.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Looking less organized.

[miamicanes177]

This needs to be a TS at 11. Sure it's very ragged but it has a well-defined, closed LLC and most definitely the winds to support TS status. Gabrielle center was removed from the convection for much of it's entire existance and it was easily classified.

The NHC wants to see convection persists 24+ hours directly over a verifiable center that has less than 10kts of shear ahead of it over the next day. I can promise you that the standards for upgrading to a tropical storm are different each time and it really is easier to forecast the tropics than to forecast what the NHC will do. Make no mistake, this has 40mph sustained winds. However, increasing the winds by 5 mph will cause this storm to have a name and the NHC is very picky about giving names out. If it were a case of Qscat showing 50mph winds instead of 45mph, NHC would have upped the winds to 50mph 12 hours ago. However, because it was the case of showing 40mph winds, the NHC will not upgrade until their strict criteria is met.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is not less "organized" when you look at the lower levels. I believe the convection over the southern side of the LLC was holded together by shear moving up a "trough" or focus point. Now you see a band forming north of it, yes there is still some shear. But now you have to watch if a blob forms over the LLC. In which we will have to watch for.

Now that the shear is lessing, the convection is refocusing on the bands to the north. Also as the shear weakens more a blob should form at the center.

[canegrl04]

Bye bye Ingrid.We hardly knew ya .It looks like the US stands a greater chance now of not being struck by a major hurricane this season

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This needs to be a TS at 11. Sure it's very ragged but it has a well-defined, closed LLC and most definitely the winds to support TS status. Gabrielle center was removed from the convection for much of it's entire existance and it was easily classified.

The NHC wants to see convection persists 24+ hours directly over a verifiable center that has less than 10kts of shear ahead of it over the next day. I can promise you that the standards for upgrading to a tropical storm are different each time and it really is easier to forecast the tropics than to forecast what the NHC will do. Make no mistake, this has 40mph sustained winds. However, increasing the winds by 5 mph will cause this storm to have a name and the NHC is very picky about giving names out. If it were a case of Qscat showing 50mph winds instead of 45mph, NHC would have upped the winds to 50mph 12 hours ago. However, because it was the case of showing 40mph winds, the NHC will not upgrade until their strict criteria is met.

I agree, I been trying to forecast the nhc for a long time. It is harder then forecasting Humberto 36 hours before it bombed.