TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Thunder44]

477
WHXX01 KWBC 131229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082007) 20070913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070913 1200 070914 0000 070914 1200 070915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 47.7W 14.3N 48.9W 14.5N 50.2W 14.6N 51.4W
BAMD 13.8N 47.7W 14.1N 48.9W 14.5N 50.0W 15.0N 50.9W
BAMM 13.8N 47.7W 14.2N 48.9W 14.5N 50.0W 14.7N 50.9W
LBAR 13.8N 47.7W 14.4N 49.1W 15.2N 50.8W 16.1N 52.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070915 1200 070916 1200 070917 1200 070918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 52.7W 14.7N 55.0W 15.7N 57.8W 16.9N 60.2W
BAMD 15.6N 51.9W 17.2N 53.6W 19.3N 55.1W 21.2N 56.3W
BAMM 15.0N 51.9W 15.5N 53.8W 16.3N 56.0W 17.5N 58.2W
LBAR 17.0N 54.0W 18.8N 57.2W 21.0N 60.4W 23.5N 63.0W
SHIP 44KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 44KTS 47KTS 47KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 47.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 44.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

12z models still show a 30kt TD. Of course now the convection moving away from the center again, NHC will be less willing to upgrade at 11am. I think at one point earlier this morning probably did have TS force winds.

[windstorm99]

i smell poof here as the NHC barely has this ugly mess over 50kts during the forcast period.Overall dont think this will amont to much as upper level winds will likely keep it in check for now or kill it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The shear is turning out of the west now above 15 north. So this is its chance to refire convection near its core. We will see...

[cheezyWXguy]

Bye bye Ingrid.We hardly knew ya .It looks like the US stands a greater chance now of not being struck by a major hurricane this season

TD10-TD12-Katrina ring a bell?

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters....

Wind shear is about 10 knots over TD 8, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Saturday morning, which should allow TD 8 time to grow to a modest tropical storm. Later on Saturday, the models now unanimously agree that TD 8 will encounter hostile upper-level westerly winds. The high levels of wind shear these upper-level winds will bring are likely to seriously weaken the storm, and may be able to tear it apart. It appears likely that TD 8 will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, sparing them its strongest winds. Should TD 8 survive past Monday, it may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly a research mission into TD 8 tonight.

[windstorm99]

wow 40-50kt windshear across the caribbean right now...What a difference from a few weeks back.

[ts_kakolina]

13/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like the GFS will be correct in its shear forecast this time around. That is one heck of an upper trough- looks like something we would see in the winter but not as robust of course.

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot beleive at all some here want to upgrade this


if anything, a debate should continue if advisories should even continue past this afternoon unless the trends reverse

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[gatorcane]

YEp wouldn't be surprised if this thing is poof by the end of the day. Folks looks like fall is already impacting the tropics. As some have been saying the westerlies are all ready sinking deep into the subtropical Atlantic.

An early end to the season? Perhaps -- in a typical year this thing should be moving beneath ridging to the north with little shear.

Looks like late fall out there now to me.

[HollynLA]

If we learned anything from Humberto is not to write any system off until it's completely GONE.

[miamicanes177]

If we learned anything from Humberto is not to write any system off until it's completely GONE.

That will never happen on message boards. Even pro mets write systems off only to have it blow up in their face (Humberto, Gabrielle, Dean, Felix...and this is only a sample from 2007). It might be best to visit the board in about 5 days after the "its dead, Jim" posts are gone forever on the storm. Until then we have to let them have their fun with the silly "dead" posts.

[hurricanetrack]

This one is all but completely gone. Looking at the 200mb charts for the next 10 days- nothing but 30+ knots of westerly to nw winds pretty much all over the deep tropics- north of about 20 degrees.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

Now we can roll out with the "unexpected shear" comments.

[skysummit]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

[cycloneye]

This is looking worse by the hour.Unless the NE shear goes,it may never be Ingrid.

[gatorcane]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

Stick a fork in it in my opinion.....looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

Dean and Felix managed to stay deep in the tropics away from all the subtropical Atlantic hostility.

[cycloneye]

looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

TD 8 is below 15n.

[skysummit]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

Stick a fork in it in my opinion.....looks like we can't get anything decent going north of about 15N this year...

Dean and Felix managed to stay deep in the tropics away from all the subtropical Atlantic hostility.

Yes, I know that's your opinion....we'll see, but you should never discount a system until it's totally gone. There have been COUNTLESS systems that have gone through this just to get it together down the line. You really believe shear will remain that strong for the next 7 days? Heck, for all we know, this can be downgraded to a wave, make it to the west Caribbean or the Gulf and re-develop. It's never gone till it's gone.

[windstorm99]

Some of you guys are freakin hilarious. You continually want to right off systems as soon as it loses convection or encounters shear. Haven't you learned your lesson by now? I mean come on.....you done it with Dean, Felix, Humberto, and now TD 8. It happens every year, and it's just hilarious. Maybe one day you'll realize. I'm not saying to upgrade this....heck, it looks terrible this morning and is in a battle, but "poof"??? Come on!

I posted something just like this for Dean and again for Felix. All these "poof", "it's gone", and "next" comments are just not accurate and should no be allowed IMO.

The TD right now is not in bad enviroment but as it moves closer to the islands the overall enviroment around what ever this is will become very poor.If it were to follow the GFDL track it will get ripped to shreads with 40-50kt windshear currently in place.Cant it survive sure but to me the most likely outcome is for it fall apart and not amount to much.