TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[hurricanetrack]

I know enough about this phenomenon to know when it does not look good. While no one has singled me out as being a "it's over Jim" poster, I must say, the writing is on the wall here for the FUTURE of this system. And as for now, it does look terrible. When the westerlies dip down like we are seeing them forecast on the models, that is a bad sign for tropical cyclone development. I for one will be very surprised if this ever develops in to anything that anyone will ever need to be concerned about. That is not the same as saying it is finished and we should not pay attention to it.

I do think that some posts from time to time from some members are negative on purpose, for what ever reason. But I assure you all that mine are at least backed up with some science or model support. As I said earlier, no one would be more thrilled than I to have a hurricane out there- but I have to realistic, that does not look likely from TD8 this morning or in 10 mornings from now.

[cycloneye]

Never say never in the tropics.

[hurricanetrack]

No one said "never". They never said that

And, Derek did not say that they should stop writing advisories. He said something about people might be debating that on this board- whether or not to continue with writing advisories.

Gotta read the posts thoroughly before rolling people under buses.

[storms in NC]

As long as the TD can stays strong till it can get though the hostel environment then it may be able to get isn't stuff together.
Mark said yesterday that there was going to be some big shear going on. We just have to wait a few day and see what it does. Maybe a few day like this. I knew yesterday something was going on cause the didn't bring it up to TS. I think they seen this coming.IMHO

[windstorm99]

The point is the future is not bright for TD8 as of now.Forcasted by most or if not all the models.

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks like shear will make this weak and west into the eastern carribean where it will make a strong comeback at a higher LAT than Dean or Felix. Still maintaining a nice classic "S" shape as a depression or wave.

[KWT]

Once again note that I can't rememberone model showing shear increasing today, even from last nights models...yet another example of just how poor the models are when it comes to dealing with shear with systmes like that. Its got a good circulation still which is something 92L didn't have when it did the same thing and as we saw with 'Gabby' these circulations can stay intact for a good 2-3 days without any convection at all.

[Cuber]

Gotta read the posts thoroughly before rolling people under buses.

Well said sir ... taking comments out of context easily turns a depression into a storm

You in NC or TX or LA today ?

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters....

Wind shear is about 10 knots over TD 8, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Saturday morning, which should allow TD 8 time to grow to a modest tropical storm. Later on Saturday, the models now unanimously agree that TD 8 will encounter hostile upper-level westerly winds. The high levels of wind shear these upper-level winds will bring are likely to seriously weaken the storm, and may be able to tear it apart. It appears likely that TD 8 will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, sparing them its strongest winds. Should TD 8 survive past Monday, it may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly a research mission into TD 8 tonight.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200709

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like Td 8 has slowed to a crawl , doesnt want to head into that shear

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Derek Ortt]

I never said that adviories should be stopped now... I said that the dialogue on whether to consider stopping advisories should begin

if this continues into the afternoon, then discontinuing advisories would be a legitimate decision

[DrewFL]

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 13 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0308A CYCLONE
C. 14/2000Z
D. 14.8N 50.8W
E. 14/2230Z TO 15/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0408A CYCLONE
C. 15/0800Z
D. 15.2N 52.0W
E. 15/1000Z TO 15/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: TWO MORE P-3 FLIGHTS FOR
16/0000Z AND 16/1200Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING 16/1800Z FOR AIR FORCE.
4. REMARKS: TASKING FOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO FOR 13/1800Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 131030Z.

[KWT]

Mind you Derek while it is being sheared it has still got some convection on that southern side and as long as it can keep that LLC then they won't downgrade this while its still got that, countless times they kept a naked swirl as a TD for 24hrs!
This one isn't quite naked...yet anyway!
I think if shear can ease off again then this could get going pretty readily, its got decent structure, just a very sheared convective apperence.

[windstorm99]

wow this continues to look worse as the hours go by.Convection now deceasing at a good rate.

[DrewFL]

They had to go ahead and task the flights.....regardless of what the system is doing right now. Obviously the NHC is still of the belief that there may be some strengthening before the shear job.

[windstorm99]

I suspect if this trend continues those flights are likely to be called off.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be all that surprised Drew if this shear currently is as strong as the stuff the models have been showing for the future, indeed this may well be one and the same feature and the models simply didn't expect the shear to dig this far south yet?

[storms in NC]

from 5 days from now they still have it at a TD.

WTNT23 KNHC 130842
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.8N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[windstorm99]

WTNT33 KNHC 131433
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.