TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

It's still very possible that a burst of convection could occur near the center and take this depression to storm intensity. The problem is that it would have to occur near the time an advisory is issued because then shear will remove it from the LLC.

With the Quikscat information and the persistancy of Dvorak, plus the satellite images before shear began taking a higher toll, I think this system will be a storm, if not in the next few days, then in the post-season.

[CrazyC83]

It's still very possible that a burst of convection could occur near the center and take this depression to storm intensity. The problem is that it would have to occur near the time an advisory is issued because then shear will remove it from the LLC.

With the Quikscat information and the persistancy of Dvorak, plus the satellite images before shear began taking a higher toll, I think this system will be a storm, if not in the next few days, then in the post-season.

I agree. I think it is holding steady on the line between depression and storm, and will stay there, perhaps drop slightly, for the next 72 hours. After that, I see steady intensification - quite possibly to a hurricane - if it can sustain itself.

[Weatherfreak000]

This system should recover.


Keeping it weak and shallow should allow it to traverse through the Caribbean I expect, which will be much more favorable then the W. Atlantic.

[Vortex]

My forecast...

90% chance of the naked swirl by late friday Saturday...At least WXman57 can get a few days off this weekend

[KWT]

Yeah if this system goes on to do nothing then the 2.5 rating from Dvorak and the 35kts from quikscat will allow a un-named TS...however this system will probably have the next 7-10 days to try and do something and unless it dies out (perfectly possible for that to happen i have to say) then surely at one point it'll get a better atmospheric set-up condusive for development.

[DrewFL]

With the Quikscat information and the persistancy of Dvorak, plus the satellite images before shear began taking a higher toll, I think this system will be a storm.




Excellent point!

[windstorm99]

This system should recover.


Keeping it weak and shallow should allow it to traverse through the Caribbean I expect, which will be much more favorable then the W. Atlantic.

We'll see cause right now its covered with 40-50kt wind shear.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah if this system goes on to do nothing then the 2.5 rating from Dvorak and the 35kts from quikscat will allow a un-named TS...however this system will probably have the next 7-10 days to try and do something and unless it dies out (perfectly possible for that to happen i have to say) then surely at one point it'll get a better atmospheric set-up condusive for development.

Even if it survives as a naked swirl, it should have better days ahead. The LLC just needs to sustain itself for 72 hours.

It is possible a quick burst may bump this to about 40 kt before levelling back to about 30-35 kt (my current intensity guess).

[HURAKAN]

Just for comparison purposes:

TD 8 (0945Z:


IRENE, 2005:


This was the first image of Irene as a tropical storm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092005_Irene.pdf

[crm6360]

Andrew in its early days struggled to survive as a depression or weak TS. It encountered strong southwesterlies generated by an ULL and was steered NW into this weakness. The key with Andrew, however, was that it continued to pulse on and off until the ULL lifted out. It didn't slow its forward speed as TD8 is forecast, and I think it only encountered shear for about 3 days... and the shear was probably nowhere as bad as the progged 40-50KT for TD8.

What's deflating is that many of us had our sights on a long-tracker and out of nowhere the shear dashes everything. It would be nice if the models are overestimating the amount of shear. Time will tell.

[Vortex]

At this point...

From a probability stnadpoint based on the current and forecasted synoptics I'd say TD 8 will be on life support at best in the coming days...


However, I remeber some storm called andrew that was sheared badly near 18/57 for a few days and we know the outcome...It's mid Septemeber and its the tropics...

[CrazyC83]

At this point...

From a probability stnadpoint based on the current and forecasted synoptics I'd say TD 8 will be on life support at best in the coming days...


However, I remeber some storm called andrew that was sheared badly near 18/57 for a few days and we know the outcome...It's mid Septemeber and its the tropics...

Very true, all bets are off if this can make it out of the shear...

[jhamps10]

Andrew in its early days struggled to survive as a depression or weak TS. It encountered strong southwesterlies generated by an ULL and was steered NW into this weakness. The key with Andrew, however, was that it continued to pulse on and off until the ULL lifted out. It didn't slow its forward speed as TD8 is forecast, and I think it only encountered shear for about 3 days... and the shear was probably nowhere as bad as the progged 40-50KT for TD8.

What's deflating is that many of us had our sights on a long-tracker and out of nowhere the shear dashes everything. It would be nice if the models are overestimating the amount of shear. Time will tell.

ah, your right on andrew, I forgot about that. ALSO Katrina, died almost completely, and came back to be the most expensive hurricane in american history.

[Vortex]

Naked swirl on the way per latest vis....




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Should be noted that while its being sheared really badly new convection is still firing on the southern side and while it is being sheared away that is a sign that its really only the shear that is stopping this system from developing...funnily enough it may run into the shear forecasted by the models in a few days time and actually see it get a touch better organised as the shear would be a decrease on todays shear!
Wouldn't that be ironic!

[crm6360]

Is today's shear really 40-50KT? I thought that was the progged shear in 2-3 days.

[Vortex]

todays shear appears to be about 15kts

[KWT]

Vortex, where did you get that figure from, just curious?
i think it was about that 12hrs ago but since then it really does seem to have ramped up, to shear a system so well you'd be talking about at elast 25-30kts IMO.

By the way signs that the LLC is starting to elongate N-S on higher resolution Sat.images but its hard to tell right now but given thats the direction of the shear that wouldn't be that surprising.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the enormous ridge progged to build in
mainly west of the trough that would shear this,
and that ridge will bridge across a FL trough
this wknd forming a strong ridge,
if this can survive the shear, south florida
to the carolinas would have to watch this very closely.
If it weren't for the shear this would be a major threat.

[CrazyC83]

With the enormous ridge progged to build in
mainly west of the trough that would shear this,
and that ridge will bridge across a FL trough
this wknd forming a strong ridge,
if this can survive the shear, south florida
to the carolinas would have to watch this very closely.
If it weren't for the shear this would be a major threat.

It could still be a major threat even with the poor conditions currently. That is a long way away...