Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

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Praxus
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Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

#1 Postby Praxus » Tue Sep 11, 2007 5:24 pm

The train continues to chug along...

Image
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:07 pm

Image

Image

Looks good for development. Time will tell.
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Re:

#3 Postby Zardoz » Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:38 pm

HURAKAN wrote:...Time will tell.

Ack!

http://67.18.196.150/phpbb2/viewtopic.p ... bbed38070b
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#4 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:40 am

Was just looking at the same,very nice looking wave.

Image
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#5 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2007 5:58 am

Very nice cluster well concentrated this morning.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/ir4.jpg
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 12, 2007 6:26 am

Image

This one already comes with a low pressure.
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Re: Heavy Convection about to move off from Africa

#7 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 12, 2007 8:34 am

Rats...
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Re: Heavy Convection about to move off from Africa

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2007 8:38 am

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ON THE 06Z ANALYSIS ALONG
19W/20W S OF 18N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND
23Z YESTERDAY. SYNOPTIC 24-HOUR PRES TRENDS CLEARLY
SHOW THE PRESCIENCE OF THIS WAVE WITH 1-3 MB PRES RISES E OF THE
WAVE OVER W AFRICA AND 1 MB FALLS W OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SINCE 06Z YESTERDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY...LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DRIFT
WINDS AND A 07Z QSCAT PASS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 10N...ANALYZED 1010 MB. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.



It has been introduced by TPC in its 8 AM discussion.Will this wave have the same fate as TD 8 is having?..
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Re: Heavy Convection about to move off from Africa

#9 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 13, 2007 9:35 am

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ON THE 06Z ANALYSIS ALONG
19W/20W S OF 18N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND
23Z YESTERDAY. SYNOPTIC 24-HOUR PRES TRENDS CLEARLY
SHOW THE PRESCIENCE OF THIS WAVE WITH 1-3 MB PRES RISES E OF THE
WAVE OVER W AFRICA AND 1 MB FALLS W OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SINCE 06Z YESTERDAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY...LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DRIFT
WINDS AND A 07Z QSCAT PASS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 10N...ANALYZED 1010 MB. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.



It has been introduced by TPC in its 8 AM discussion.Will this wave have the same fate as TD 8 is having?..


Thats' the 10000 $ question Luis.....i don't tkink that ...time will tell...
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Re: Tropical Wave with low South of Cape Verde islands

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2007 10:16 am

Image

Quickscat shows some circulation with this.
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#11 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 13, 2007 10:23 am

Looks like the convection is ahead of the low right now, still it doesn't look too bad and I'm guessing is the feature that some models develop around 72hrs. Who knows whether it'll develop or not, does look interesting and will be our next long term system to watch.
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Re: Tropical Wave with low South of Cape Verde islands

#12 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 13, 2007 10:27 am

The only problem is the ITCZ out ahead of it is a little drier and more negative than previous established CV waves.
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Re: Tropical Wave with low South of Cape Verde islands

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2007 1:21 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
CAME OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 23Z
YESTERDAY. THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR DEPICTED VERY WELL
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
10N...ANALYZED 1010 MB. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-16N WEST OF 25W.


2 PM discussion by TPC
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 13, 2007 2:31 pm

TD8 might eat up enough of good ol' Sally to give this a good shot...
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Re:

#15 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:59 am

CrazyC83 wrote:TD8 might eat up enough of good ol' Sally to give this a good shot...

As Derek has said, you got it backwards. Ingrid isn't going to eat up anything unless "Sally" was in the Caribbean right now.
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#16 Postby Meso » Fri Sep 14, 2007 6:00 am

5am

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
18N22W 3N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N...CONFIRMED BY A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS. OVERALL...THIS WAVE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic

#17 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:59 am

African wave train dried up.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 16N26W TO 3N28W MOVING W 10-15
KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
10N...CONFIRMED BY A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN AN
EARLIER QSCAT PASS. OVERALL...THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. A
CURVED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS ON THE NORTHERN
END OF WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS. THE UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO
TRACK.

$$
GR


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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic

#19 Postby BigA » Fri Sep 14, 2007 3:37 pm

Convection has increased some this afternoon. Worth keeping a weather-eye on it, but nothing to worry about at this point.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 14, 2007 7:20 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. THE UW-CIMSS TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK. A CURVED BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
QUADRANT ALONG 15N28W 14N31W 11N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
23W-33W.


Hmm,now that low is down to 1008 mbs.
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