TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the enormous ridge progged to build in
mainly west of the trough that would shear this,
and that ridge will bridge across a FL trough
this wknd forming a strong ridge,
if this can survive the shear, south florida
to the carolinas would have to watch this very closely.
If it weren't for the shear this would be a major threat.

It could still be a major threat even with the poor conditions currently. That is a long way away...

Yes indeed. If this does survive the shear the SE US and the islands
may be looking down the barrel at a bullet.

The waters get warm and the forecasted ridge means
there is little chance of recurvature.

[Sanibel]

So far, all waves with good spin from CV have developed into big storms in 2007.

[vacanechaser]

well, we saw what strong shear did to gabrielle and the llc hung in there and batteled back... anything i possible i guess..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms in NC]

OUT OF RDU

SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUST GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
GFS/ECMWF INDICATES AN UPPER LOW MAY FORM JUST OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. IF THIS CAME TO PASS...A SURFACE TROUGH COULD
SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AREAS. THIS IS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...SO WILL JUST MONITOR AT THIS TIME

[cajungal]

I am not writing this one off yet. Because I seen many systems be declared dead, then waited until they got into a more favorable environment. Then came back from the dead. Katrina was like the engine that could. Was basically written off at one point, until she got in a more favorable environment. And the rest as we all know is history....

[seaswing]

As Cyclone said earlier, never sy never this time of year.....

[Blown Away]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=0

This is just crazy, NHC has weak TS NE of islands in 5+ days and Accuweather has a Cat 2 rolling into the SE Bahamas in 5+ days. Just like an old western standoff.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

well, we saw what strong shear did to gabrielle and the llc hung in there and batteled back... anything i possible i guess..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

And Jesse,look what happened with a disorganized area of clouds that was invest 90L,then the invest was taken down,up again,started to organize rapidly,became a TD,Storm and hurricane in a fast pace.This shows that anything can happen in the tropics from one day to another.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/depressions.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=8&imagetype=move&stormNum=0

This is just crazy, NHC has weak TS NE of islands in 5+ days and Accuweather has a Cat 2 rolling into the SE Bahamas in 5+ days. Just like an old western standoff.

I am agreeing with accuweather this time.
Once that ridge builds in, the shear will lessen, and even
if this thing is just a TD at that time, going over warm
waters it would explode.

I do not see this as a TS in Five days, but a CAT 2 at least
in 5 days passing dangerously close
to the caribbean islands- as accuweather
has forecasted intensity wise.

[curtadams]

This is a classic sheared TS right now. On RGB you can see the choo-choo convection stretching from just SE of the center on off to the south. It was already above 35kt by Quickscat (which is conservative; airplane-measured wind speeds are almost always higher than Quickscat) and the thickening of the low-cloud spiral arc bands shows it's strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather is changing their thinking.

[CrazyC83]

I am not writing this one off yet. Because I seen many systems be declared dead, then waited until they got into a more favorable environment. Then came back from the dead. Katrina was like the engine that could. Was basically written off at one point, until she got in a more favorable environment. And the rest as we all know is history....

So true! As long as the circulation remains intact, even as a naked swirl, this could become something very serious down the road. The dry air and shear should hold it back for the next 72 hours or so, but after that, who knows.

[robbielyn]

Accuweather is changing their thinking.

Thats because it is now obvious their previous forecast would be likened to pulling a rabbit out of a hat at this point. If you can't fight em join em

[ts_kakolina]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

Same latitude and moving WEST-NORTHWEST?

[CrazyC83]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2007

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

Same latitude and moving WEST-NORTHWEST?

Center relocation probably.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

It is pretty easy to see the LLC on RGB:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[HURAKAN]

Yet Another Atlantic StormUpdated: Thursday, September 13, 2007 11:23 AM
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=2

We've already gone through seven names this Atlantic hurricane season, and an eighth, Ingrid, is likely brewing over the central part of the basin. The system is currently identified as a tropical depression, with harmless 35-mph winds. Right now, T.D. 8 is battling northeasterly wind shear and dry air to its west, but any additional strengthening will bring it to tropical storm status. It looks like the system will have a slow go of it through the next few days, but we'll be watching it the whole way.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Bob Tarr.

________----------------------------____________

Lets count: A 1, B 2, C 3, D 4, E 5, F 6, G 7, H 8, I 9!!!!! Oops!!!

[Vortex]

Accuweather per 10am still has a cat 2 in leewards and just north of DR Wednesday moving WNW...I don't get it...


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=0

[KWT]

Yeah you really can't miss the LLC, also note the convection is becoming increasingly confined to a narrow line south fo the center, shear seems extremely high right now, could well be as high as the 40-50kts quoted earlier. Any dieing of that convection on the southern side and we'll have a naked swirl.