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wxman57
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Problem With Westerly Motion

#21 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 27, 2003 8:24 pm

The only problem with a westerly motion is that the lower-level winds (sfc-850mb) are all from the south.
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#22 Postby Amanzi » Fri Jun 27, 2003 8:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:Amanzi in what part of Florida you are located? I ask because depending in which area you live this system may affect more or less.East coast of florida looks the less rain area.


I am in NE Florida Cyc. Just South of St Augustine and North of Daytona Beach.

That has been the problem, all the moisture has been staying to our west, and we really could use some rain... So I am not counting on getting much precip :roll:
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#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2003 8:57 pm

Ok Amanzi thanks for the answer of where you are located and yes east florida wont see the bulk of this system so you are below normal there in terms of rainfall?
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ColdFront77

#24 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:03 pm

Luis, you don't think it is premature to say that eastern Florida won't get much from this system?

My local forecasters are looking for a lot of rain from this system... not so much at the start tomorrow afternoon, more so on Saturday evening and Sunday looks rather wet with rain and thunderstorms. Bronwyn, Chad and myself are in the Orlando, Florida viewing area.

This tropical disturbance is a very slow moving system... so everyone from Texas to Florida should watch this system closely as it slowly moves into the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan peninsula.
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:11 pm

Yea Tom I agree that all the residents that live from Brownsville to Miami mustwatch this system going into the weekend and early next week.But what I was refering to is about some models take this system towards the panhandle of florida and others taking it more west towards the texas coast so there is a great avenue of possibilities in terms of the future movement of this but Tom right now the east coast of florida will get less rain but that could change in a hurry so keep watching this system those who live at the east coast of florida too.
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#26 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Jun 27, 2003 9:22 pm

Here's the difference between night and day ... the QPF's I'm using are a bit old though ... from the 12z runs on June 27th ...

ETA versus GFS 60 hr QPF potential from 18 to 72 hr
ETA -
Image
GFS
Image
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#27 Postby Toni - 574 » Fri Jun 27, 2003 10:21 pm

It sounds like we may need to add a pair of wading boots to our hurricane supply list. Well, unless the flow pattern changes Florida could be in a very serious situation this season. I have to say that makes me a little nervous.

:roll:
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#28 Postby BEER980 » Sat Jun 28, 2003 9:10 am

I heard a report from a psychic about the hurricane activity in Florida this year. Looks like we will have two hits from hurricanes this year and a near miss also. One will be cat 2-3 and the other cat 3-4. The near miss will just brush Tampa and head straight for New Orleans.
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