Advisories and Warnings Issues

[artist]

This morning I was thinking about those in Tx and La that literally went to bed expecting some rain, a little wind and that was all. A hurricane watch was never issued to my knowledge last night. If there was please correct me. If there wasn't, should there have been even though they didn't think at the time it would become one? I am asking because if a storm is going to hit early morning hours should a watch be issued even when there may be only be a small chance of it becoming a hurricane so that people will not be caught off guard? I am talking only about storms that hit early morning times and are presently a tropical storm. It just seems to me it it should be taken for granted that storms can suddenly intensify. I realize this because I have followed storms long enough to have seen it happen a number of times. What about those that don't? Is it fair to not at least issue a watch stating that it appears it will remain a TS, but it could strengthen to a hurricane suddenly? As I say, I am only talking about TS's that could change while most are sleeping.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I'm concerned about the TPC's future. The NHC really made a mistake when hurricane watches weren't initiated at the 10 p.m. CDT advisory. It's a public safety issue where prudence should trump science. These rapid bloomers are the ones that really bite us where it hurts. Unfortunately, I can hear a certain private meteorological firm (cough!) cackling in the background. "The TPC failed to issue adequate warning..." I can't really fault their efforts; it's a tough situation. Today's environment places the NHC in a tough position. They're going to receive backlash about this decision, especially because the advisory stated the following message:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

10 p.m. CDT advisory (September 10, 2007)

I really do not have any clues as to why a watch wasn't issued at the time. If they make a similar error in the future, the TPC will face major hurdles. The media, public, Accuweather, and other companies are watching their moves and decisions. The NHC is excellent, and I trust their judgement, but I disagreed with some issues. Additionally, I think TD 8 should have been Ingrid yesterday (some evidence supported an LLC closer to the convection) - it becomes a discontinuity issue if TD 8 was situated closer to the islands. Unfortunately, we should place ourselves in their shoes, but the general public and others will not adhere to that perspective.

[KWT]

Also hard data backed up a tropical storm about 6-9hrs ago with a Sat.estimate of 2.5 and quikscat at 35kts, I'm really not sure why they decided to keep it a TD, the only reason I can think of is becuase of the shear starting to have an effect...but even then it WAS a TS according to the hard data and it seems the NHC couldn't be bothered to upgrade this system mainly because it wasn't anyones concern.

Had Td8 been where Humberto was 24hrs ago, it would have almost certainly got upgraded...it seems what is good enough for one TD is not good enough for another at times with the NHC...

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I'm concerned about the TPC's future. The NHC really made a mistake when hurricane watches weren't initiated at the 10 p.m. CDT advisory. It's a public safety issue where prudence should trump science. These rapid bloomers are the ones that really bite us where it hurts. Unfortunately, I can hear a certain private meteorological firm (cough!) cackling in the background. "The TPC failed to issue adequate warning..." I can't really fault their efforts; it's a tough situation. Today's environment places the NHC in a tough position. They're going to receive backlash about this decision, especially because the advisory stated the following message:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

10 p.m. CDT advisory (September 10, 2007)

I really do not have any clues as to why a watch wasn't issued at the time. If they make a similar error in the future, the TPC will face major hurdles. The media, public, Accuweather, and other companies are watching their moves and decisions. The NHC is excellent, and I trust their judgement, but I disagreed with some issues. Additionally, I think TD 8 should have been Ingrid yesterday (some evidence supported an LLC closer to the convection) - it becomes a discontinuity issue if TD 8 was situated closer to the islands. Unfortunately, we should place ourselves in their shoes, but the general public and others will not adhere to that perspective.

We all have disagreements and mistakes made. Although I agree with you here. (Mentioning AccuWeather is not a good one since they did even worse with Humberto IMO) As late as 10 pm, it seemed that the only ones thinking this was going to be a hurricane were people on here.

This was the 4 pm forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 28.6N 94.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.3N 92.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

With the 55 kt mentioned on a strengthening storm before landfall (60 kt at landfall with the difference on final approach), a Hurricane Watch would have been warranted there I thought that was cutting it way too close.

[KWT]

Yeah 10kts difference isn't really that much tohugh to be fair to the NHC the margin of error for about 6-9hrs out probably isn't all that high and they weren't really to knw that this would become the fastest Td-cat-1 hurricane ever, so on that front they probably weren't to foresee this system developing as fast as it actually did.

[MiamiensisWx]

Finally, I'm puzzled as to why the following line (bold) was made in the recent 11 a.m. CDT discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/131446.shtml

Humberto may have been an example of adequate latent heat release/fusion, small size of the core (rapid intensification), and ideal upper-level divergence. The northern semicircle outflow was enhanced by the adjacent sfc front. A storm can intensify when it moves parallel to a stationary front, and it was under a favorable 250 mbar jet streak. I would tend to believe the TPC has adequate data, so this statement (especially after the lack of a hurricane watch) is startling and troubling for me. I really hope a certain private meteorological firm doesn't politicize the situation. I'm probably too harsh; they do an outstanding job, but I'm a little nervous about their credibility in the eyes of non-public entities. Additionally, several noted NHC experts urge preparation for "one category higher" (see Charley, Claudette, and others), so this recent sentence seems surprising; I hope it doesn't give the private meteorological company the notion that states, "The TPC doesn't know what they're doing."

[Jinkers]

I remember all the flack they took when they expected Ernesto last year to be a weak hurricane, and people were upset that they prepared a hurricane, instead of a tropical storm. I would rather prepare for the worst, and get a tropical storm, wow, those folks had no idea a hurricane was going to hit.

[KWT]

Yeah MiamiensisWx thats the part that makes no real sense, they said the same with Epsilon if I recall about not knowing why it was keeping its strength.

As you say plenty of heat content present, a very small core with a sharp pressure gradient as you say with recon proving that and also all your other factors you mentioned.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah MiamiensisWx thats the part that makes no real sense, they said the same with Epsilon if I recall about not knowing why it was keeping its strength.

As you say plenty of heat content present, a very small core with a sharp pressure gradient as you say with recon proving that and also all your other factors you mentioned.

Epsilon was an unprecedented event, while the synoptic setup and rapid intensification with Humberto has occurred in the historical records and recent years. Additionally, the TPC utilizes upper-air (H5) and sfc data/charts, model guidance, and reconnaissance data; although the rate of intensification was unprecedented, it wasn't entirely unforeseen under the circumstances and available data. Generally, I still think the TPC is the best; hats off to the forecasters there!

[JonathanBelles]

I think they should have had an H watch at 11p to better prepare people. Im sure people were surprised when they woke up with a hurricane on their doorsteps. I certainly didnt expect 85mph, maybe 75mph, at the time.

[KWT]

i don't think many people honestly expected an 85mph hurricane, there were some for sure but the vast number of experts and us on here probably expected a mid-strong tropical storm.
The first signs IMO that it was going to be a hurricane was when that mid-level eye popped up about 4pm your time yesterday and at the same time eyewalls started to show signs of really taking off again.

[JonathanBelles]

Did the eye ever pop out on satellite.

[KWT]

I don't know but it was certainly evident on the radar for some time and the N.eyewall was also very strong for some time before landfall. At the time i thoguht it was just dry air intrusion from land but given its rapid development it may well have also been the first signs of a mid-level eye forming, that turned up as early as 1-2pm our time yesterday.

[artist]

i don't think many people honestly expected an 85mph hurricane, there were some for sure but the vast number of experts and us on here probably expected a mid-strong tropical storm.
The first signs IMO that it was going to be a hurricane was when that mid-level eye popped up about 4pm your time yesterday and at the same time eyewalls started to show signs of really taking off again.

this to me should have been enough to warrant the issuance then so preparations could be made while it was still possible. Even if it had been issued at 11, there is no way anyone could get prepared. Having been through 3, I will always prepare. Yesterday I don't think it was even thought it could get to be a hurricane therefore the media didn't take it seriously either and I bet 95% of the people that got hit were unprepared. I think of the time it takes to put up shutters, etc. It just seems to me the time of day should also be a factor regarding issuing watches. If it were coming in in the early evening there would be time for people to prepare as word would get out quickly. At night - most are all sleeping.

[KWT]

Yep artist, though at the time the NHC I think only forecasted this to get upto 55kts and at that point was estimated to be a 45kt TS, tohugh the truth may have been it was already as high as it max forecasted strength at that time, who knows!

By the way fact789 here is a radar image just after landfall, saw this on the link on the Humberto thread but thought it was good:

http://bp3.blogger.com/_ESszWnn4gco/Ruj ... BERTO2.jpg

[artist]

yeah, I just wonder if their procedure should be changed for this type of situation. I know they did exactly what their procedures call for, but maybe it should be changed for specifically ts's falling in the early morning hours. Fortunately we have not had this situation occur very often, but once is more than it should be for safety's sake. JMHO

[Chacor]

There are points to be made on both sides.

1) At no time before it actually became a hurricane was a hurricane expected.
2) The rapid intensification caught everyone off guard.
3) Hurricane-force winds were confined to a very small area.
4) Residents were already warned to expect a storm, they just weren't warned to perpare for a hurricane.

Also, remember that warnings and watches need to be co-ordinated with local NWS WFOs. Therefore the blame cannot be put only on the TPC/NHC.

In my opinion, as long as hurricane-force gusts are possible, a hurricane watch needs to be issued. Gusts do the real damage, after all.

[artist]

There are points to be made on both sides.

1) At no time before it actually became a hurricane was a hurricane expected.
2) The rapid intensification caught everyone off guard.
3) Hurricane-force winds were confined to a very small area.
4) Residents were already warned to expect a storm, they just weren't warned to perpare for a hurricane.

Also, remember that warnings and watches need to be co-ordinated with local NWS WFOs. Therefore the blame cannot be put only on the TPC/NHC.

In my opinion, as long as hurricane-force gusts are possible, a hurricane watch needs to be issued. Gusts do the real damage, after all.

Chacor - that is my poinion exactly - particularly if a storm is to hit in the early morning hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's a question. Does anyone have any thoughts as to why the TPC didn't issue a hurricane watch at 10 p.m. CDT? Do you think there was debate among the analysts and forecasters at the NHC? I would appreciate some input here.

[dtrain44]

Being an Okie, I'll always draw comparisons to severe weather events....so here goes:

I don't think it's reasonable to issue a hurricane watch for every landfalling cyclone that could produce hurricane force gusts. This would be the same as issuing a tornado watch for every potential severe weather event in which a tornado is possible. A hurricane watch gets people excited, prompts evacuations, and generally causes some problems. These problems are worth having for an intense storm, but nobody thought this possible with Humberto.

Additionally, we want to keep hurricane warnings/watches credible. If Humberto, a pretty small system, makes landfall at 55-60 mph (which was on the upper end of what most expected), the hurricane watch will have been perceived by many as a significant waste of effort. This was a historical event, a truly phenomenal increase in strength in a very short period of time, and it was still a small Cat 1, a storm that did nothing beyond what you would expect of a decent tropical storm in most cases (although it certainly did have a Cat 1 impact in a few places). Nailing the NHC on this seems to me to be analogous to criticizing a field goal kicker for hitting the upright on a 62 yard field goal. Sure, he didn't make it, but do we know anyone else who could?

I think the forecasters asked themselves, just as the SPC would ask during a severe weather event, whether there is a real probability of significant severe activity. In this case, the NHC didn't really think it would happen, with warning lead time being nothing of much significance anyway. Their answer was no and they were wrong. But not that wrong and it wasn't that significant in any event. The discussion that mentions the historic nature of the storm acknowledges as much: nobody expected Humberto to do that. Issuing hurricane watches/warnings any time that there could be hurricane force gusts would be tantamount to issuing a tornado warning whenever a squall line could produce 75-80 mph winds.....sorry for the length of this post....