TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't wait intill recon confirms my tropical storm. Convection has formed over the LLC as I was thinking earlier today.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

From the 5:00 NHC Discussion

"CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW
ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST"

I think the system is already organizing around the stronger center to the SE as witnessed by the impressive blowup of convection in that area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still a TD at 5 pm AST

[jhamps10]

it wouldn't suprise me if RECON did NOT find a TS, but it would not suprise me either if they did find it was a TS, with the way it is looking on satellite, espically since we are very close to DMIN.

[jhamps10]

From the 5:00 NHC Discussion

"CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW
ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST"

I think the system is already organizing around the stronger center to the SE as witnessed by the impressive blowup of convection in that area.

in other words, a major relocation of the center?

[skysummit]

I can't wait intill recon confirms my tropical storm. Convection has formed over the LLC as I was thinking earlier today.

Yea....convection increasing right over the center now. I guess that "writing on the wall" may be erased and those forks may need to be pulled.

[windstorm99]

lol there forcasting a TD at the end of the forcast period....

[HURAKAN]

13/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.2W T2.5/2.5 08L
13/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L
13/0600 UTC 12.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L
12/2345 UTC 12.4N 46.4W T2.5/2.5 08L
12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L

Very consistant. 3ºW in 24 hrs. Do I smell fear of shear!!!

[canegrl04]

Still a TD at 5 pm AST

I think a TS will be noted by the time RECON has investigated. 8pm?

[Sanibel]

With that center burst I say reconnaissance will find TS.

No relocation of center. No.

[Brent]

I can't wait intill recon confirms my tropical storm. Convection has formed over the LLC as I was thinking earlier today.

Yea....convection increasing right over the center now. I guess that "writing on the wall" may be erased and those forks may need to be pulled.

Well I would begin to prepare crow but after what happened last night I'm sorry to report there is none.

[Extremecane]

very deep convction over LLC:

[skysummit]

lol there forcasting a TD at the end of the forcast period....

Well of course they are. The environment doesn't look good down the road, but that has nothing to do with it right now. Just like some have been saying ALL DAY LONG....it's too early to "stick a fork in it".

[gatorcane]

I'll admit I'm a little bit confused on what to say about eight.

On the one hand it appears to be moving so slow that it is going nowhere and it is badly sheared, you would think that by the time it reaches the Western Atlantic (if it does) a big trough will scoop it up and send it on its way...

But on the other hand, that track towards the Hebert box is a bit concerning....even if it weakens to a depression all it takes is that ridge building off the EC of the US and ULL winds to become more favorable between the Northern Islands and South Florida lookout.

My eye is definitely on this thing...until it is COMPLETELY gone...

some storms come to mind:

Andrew
Katrina

Both waited until the time was right to explode....

South Florida you still need to watch this thing IMHO....

[Sanibel]

Yes, that red dot IR tells you what this storm is preserving once it finds a favorable environment. You better hope a ridge doesn't send this west north of the islands.

[canegrl04]

lol there forcasting a TD at the end of the forcast period....

[aguaviva]

From the 5:00 NHC Discussion

"CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW
ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST"

I think the system is already organizing around the stronger center to the SE as witnessed by the impressive blowup of convection in that area.

in other words, a major relocation of the center?

Every year there is that storm that does something totally unexpected...so far this year forecasting has been fairly easy, maybe this is the one that will force everyone to think harder this year.

[CrazyC83]

lol there forcasting a TD at the end of the forcast period....

I don't believe that at all unless this dissipates in the next 48 hours...I think there is a better chance this could be a major hurricane at 120 hours than a tropical depression...

[gatorcane]

Hey canegirl in South Florida don't laugh...

that is precisely why it could end up going more west and be in our neck of the woods.....we actually want it to intensify and deepen now...

notice the Miami and Melbourne AFDs are calling for a T Wave to move into the peninsula for next week...I think they are talking about what is left of TD 8 -- or something more.

The steering patterns may just be there...lets hope the shear wrecks this thing.

[skysummit]

Yes, that red dot IR tells you what this storm is preserving once it finds a favorable environment. You better hope a ridge doesn't send this west north of the islands.

Amen...it's showing it has what it takes to be a something down the road. We all need to hope for unfavorable conditions to continue throughout its life.