TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Blown Away]

Yes, that red dot IR tells you what this storm is preserving once it finds a favorable environment. You better hope a ridge doesn't send this west north of the islands.

NWS Melbourne talks about the ridges merging and a TW moving across FL next week, wonder if TD8 is the TW?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I personally would like to check a name off our list. I expect we will when recon gets in there. Who knows the future.

[Brent]

Yes, that red dot IR tells you what this storm is preserving once it finds a favorable environment. You better hope a ridge doesn't send this west north of the islands.

Agreed, I'm watching this more closely now. I'm increasingly starting to think Ingrid will be born tonight.

Intensity forecasts have been way off this year, both high and low.

[gatorcane]

Yes, that red dot IR tells you what this storm is preserving once it finds a favorable environment. You better hope a ridge doesn't send this west north of the islands.

NWS Melbourne talks about the ridges merging and a TW moving across FL next week, wonder if TD8 is the TW?

Yes see above.....I agree with you.

I'm counting on this thing getting wrecked by shear...

[skysummit]

I personally would like to check a name off our list. I expect we will when recon gets in there. Who knows the future.

Heck...that name could have already been checked off according to previous discos. I strongly believe we'll use it up tonight though

[MetroMike]

I would rather just see this pitiful system be put out of it's misery since it's not forecast to do much of anything anyhow.

[HURAKAN]

I would rather just see this pitiful system be put out of it's misery since it's not forecast to do much of anything anyhow.

I guess we said the same about Gabrielle and Humberto before becoming Gabrielle and Humberto. It's September and anything can happen.

[Blown Away]

I know nothing is certain, but is the prediction of TD at the end of the forecast period the NHC's way of saying the system will be trending downward and dissipate?

[miamicanes177]

A NOAA hurricane plane is on its way as we speak to this system. We will have verifiable evidence from the plane within hours that can not be disputed. This will settle the dispute once and for all if TD8 has indeed strengthened by 5mph to 40mph and become a tropical storm as I believe it has.

[aguaviva]

I would rather just see this pitiful system be put out of it's misery since it's not forecast to do much of anything anyhow.

I guess we said the same about Gabrielle and Humberto before becoming Gabrielle and Humberto. It's September and anything can happen.

or Andrew, or Katrina or Hortense or Marylin or so many others that were once pitiful and almost written off...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

A NOAA hurricane plane is on its way as we speak to this system. We will have verifiable evidence from the plane within hours that can not be disputed. This will settle the dispute once and for all if TD8 has indeed strengthened by 5mph to 40mph and become a tropical storm as I believe it has.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

~~~~~~~~~
Look at this latest visable loop. I think it's easily a TS, maybe even a little stronger then 40 mph.

[HURRICANELONNY]

One thing is for sure. You can't write these systems off till the last cloud. I never though I'd wake up to Humberto being a Hurricane. Just a day ago it looked worse then TD8. All these systems need is a little room and boom.

[cpdaman]

gator cane from your posts you seem very worried about td 8 passing thru herbert box

you know a lot of storms have passed thru the herbert box and not effected s. fl right?

i mean alot of the storms that hit FL from the SE, or E have but that does not mean that most storms crossing the herbert box effect florida. you get what i'm saying

this is not two mutally exclusive statements

[canegrl04]

I would rather just see this pitiful system be put out of it's misery since it's not forecast to do much of anything anyhow.

I guess we said the same about Gabrielle and Humberto before becoming Gabrielle and Humberto. It's September and anything can happen.

or Andrew, or Katrina or Hortense or Marylin or so many others that were once pitiful and almost written off...

Its not a good idea to take seriously the forecasts for intensity.models are notoriously horrible at this end of the tropics game

[HURAKAN]

What did the latest Quikscat say?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As I have been saying for the past 3 days, I do not
see this weakening, and I do see it becoming a threat
to the SE US with a highest risk from South Florida
to the Carolinas.

Also as I have been saying for the past 3 days and
will continue to say, I expect a major hurricane in 5 days.
The shear forecasts were exaggerated since GFS and other
models love to exaggerate trough-shear strength.
And correspondingly, the ridge has been underestimated.
The further south this goes, the greater the threat
to 1) The Caribbean Islands/Bahamas and 2) SE Florida

[punkyg]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

hey look guys that convection on the south side of td8's center is starting to dissapate. look at that deep convection over the center.

i knew when i asked that question about td8's morning sickness being over. that it was true. its over.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

OUT OF MELBOURNE-
VERY STRONG RIDGE with Atlantic ridge merging with a contental
ridge. TD 8 will likely NOT recurve.
Mon-thu this thing goes WNW for 7 days..that would
bring it to the Bahamas...

gatorcane mentioned this earlier.

MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR
TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE
FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

[punkyg]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
In this shear map it looks like td8 is in 5kt to 10kt shear, but i can't really tell. if you wanna correct me about the shear go ahead.

[aguaviva]

TD 8 reminds me of one of those Caribbean cockroaches that you hit over and over with a shoe and still manage to keep on running away from certain death. Cicloneye and Hurakan know what I am talking about.