TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TheShrimper]

I agree. Knock this crap off TBH, it is really getting old.

[jaxfladude]

As of now, if TD#8 can hold it's own until after it passes the forecasted high shear area and stays on the current forecasted track it could become big trouble, is that the gist of it?

[JTD]

Whoah

Hang on a second here guys. We are in an ACTIVE cycle. 2005, just 2 years ago, smashed almost every single hurricane record that there is to be smashed. We had 2 category 5 landfalls just in August/Early September, something that has never happened before. The rate of deepening for Felix was to quote the NHC "one of the more faster rates of deepening that we have ever observed" and Humberto just last night deepend at a rate never seen before in history per the NHC 11 a.m. discussion. The Atlantic from Isabel 2003 to Ivan 2004 to Katrina 2005 to Dean and Felix 2007 has been popping up monster storms at an astonishing pace.

Now, I am making no prediction whatsoever about TD #8, but to think that the potential for RI doesn't exist is flatly ridiculous after what we have seen this past decade.

Not saying and don't even think that TD #8 will do that but seeing potential for a storm to POTENTIALLY do that is not at all unreasonable given what we have seen in the recent past!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Why aren't the boards all renamed "My reasons why TD (insert number here) will become a CAT 5 and pound the US"?

Thank you! My thoughts exactly!!

[jaxfladude]

[destruction92]

Why aren't the boards all renamed "My reasons why TD (insert number here) will become a CAT 5 and pound the US"?

Because the board is not filled with people I disagree with.
At least the people here back their opinions with some substance, observations, and some evidence.
I don't think it is very nice to ridicule people for not agreeing...instead we should try to educate each other and remove "topical weather" ignorance.

I for one think TD8 can reach hurricane status because global models are not reliable when it comes to their intensity predictions...they are good mainly for their tracking.

[miamicanes177]

SFMR finds a tropical storm Ingrid (not a TD) with 40mph winds (so far).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



LETS GET BACK ON TOPIC: TD 8.

[Blown Away]

[/quote]

So based on the shear map, TD8 has not even come close to the significant shear. Look how much it struggled w/ relatively low shear today. If that strong shear is N of PR area it would be unlikely TD8 could do much developing. Now the uncertainity is will that really strong shear be N of the PR area in 5 days?

[RL3AO]

It looks like a pre-2004 system.

[deltadog03]

I am fully confident that this will be upgraded at 11pm....They are just about or basically finding TS winds and they are not even close to the center. Look at the maps at where the obs are taken. (not even close to the center yet)

[ConvergenceZone]

Why aren't the boards all renamed "My reasons why TD (insert number here) will become a CAT 5 and pound the US"?

Because the board is not filled with people I disagree with.
At least the people here back their opinions with some substance, observations, and some evidence.
I don't think it is very nice to ridicule people for not agreeing...instead we should try to educate each other and remove "topical weather" ignorance.

I for one think TD8 can reach hurricane status because global models are not reliable when it comes to their intensity predictions...they are good mainly for their tracking.

I agree with you to a point of it being that time of year, BUT there are plenty of people I disagree with here, but most will never ever admit it...Nobody wants to be called that....It's just that not every depresson or storm that pops will be a major hurricane, plain and simple......That's the only point I"m trying to say....

[fci]

Why aren't the boards all renamed "My reasons why TD (insert number here) will become a CAT 5 and pound the US"?

Wish you were my local met!!!!!!

[HeeBGBz]

wow its blowing up this evening....

TS Ingrid? Looks like she is a fighter and I think baffling those at the NHC and on this board.

She just didn't want to upstage Humberto. Now we're down to business.

I hope this one doesn't line up for that Katrina scenario. Or for that matter a Frederic (Whose anniversary was yesterday).

[jaxfladude]

wow its blowing up this evening....

TS Ingrid? Looks like she is a fighter and I think baffling those at the NHC and on this board.

She just didn't want to upstage Humberto. Now we're down to business.

I hope this one doesn't line up for that Katrina scenario. Or for that matter a Frederic (Whose anniversary was yesterday).

Or a Dora for NE Florida

[jasons2k]

For the 2nd time, please stay on topic. Mods have been instructed to hand-out suspensions without warning and this the 2nd warning on this page alone.

[miamicanes177]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

[RL3AO]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

With FL winds of 23kt. I would ignore that reading unless they get more.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

With FL winds of 23kt. I would ignore that reading unless they get more.

Same here but I could be wrong. I still think 35 kt (maybe 40 kt) is the correct intensity at this moment.

[jhamps10]

yeah I'm ingoring the 49 kt sfmr, but we have 2 40 kt sfmr's right in between the 49 kt report.