TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[miamicanes177]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

With FL winds of 23kt. I would ignore that reading unless they get more.

two 40kts SFMR readings after that one as well as a 35kt one before it. Looks legit to me.

[canegrl04]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

Lets see if Ingrid can survive the next round of shear.If she can do that,I fully expect her to graduate at some point to a hurricane.Busy week ahead for all next week

[fasterdisaster]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

With FL winds of 23kt. I would ignore that reading unless they get more.

two 40kts SFMR readings after that one as well as a 35kt one before it. Looks legit to me.

Agreed. At the very least I would put this at 45 kts.

[deltadog03]

looks like the plane is gonna be heading north and if they do that right now they should intercept the center.

[jhamps10]

NOAA plane confirms significant tropical storm Ingrid has formed

000830 1313N 04832W 6429 03854 0102 +043 +043 267021 023 049 016 00

SFMR 49kts

Lets see if Ingrid can survive the next round of shear.If she can do that,I fully expect her to graduate at some point to a hurricane.Busy week ahead for all next week

well she's doing a good job of it so far, I wonder how much shear TD8/Ingrid will actually see in 3-5 days, as most all of us know that the shear forecasts are not reliable more than 2 days out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the way this season has been in the central and western Atlantic, it would not suprize if the shear was 35-40 knots over this system in 3 days. We will have to see for our selfs.

[cycloneye]

13/2345 UTC 14.4N 48.7W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

[RL3AO]

Not to nitpick, but if you think it is a tropical storm, well than call it a tropical storm, not Ingrid. Because then you are just doing what Accuweather does.

[canegrl04]

Not to nitpick, but if you think it is a tropical storm, well than call it a tropical storm, not Ingrid. Because then you are just doing what Accuweather does.

Okay. Tropical Storm Ingrid

[Brent]

It's a girl!

Now back to Big Brother.

[CrazyC83]

Not to nitpick, but if you think it is a tropical storm, well than call it a tropical storm, not Ingrid. Because then you are just doing what Accuweather does.

It is best to call it "Tropical Storm Eight" or the "Unnamed Tropical Storm" for now if you think the data is right. Only the NHC can assign names.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, as far as speculating on where there storm or depression goes, not even JB is certain if this is an EC threat or a fish storm. He does think a very unimpressive wave North of the Eastern Greater Antilles may be a player in the Gulf, but per video, he isn't sure where this goes.

If even JB isn't willing to predict this, the final track is no doubt complicated. GFDL still loses this, SHIPS shows a total of 19 knots of strengthening in 120 hours, so with uncertain intensity and a forecast of shear which essentially implies different steering for deep as compared to shallow systems, I think all we can safely say is it may die, it may die and regenerate, it may hit the Northern islands, it may threaten the US, or it may go fishing.


My wife wants laptop, hope I'll be back later.

[Cyclone1]

Not to nitpick, but if you think it is a tropical storm, well than call it a tropical storm, not Ingrid. Because then you are just doing what Accuweather does.

It is best to call it "Tropical Storm Eight" or the "Unnamed Tropical Storm" for now if you think the data is right. Only the NHC can assign names.

The NHC doesn't assign names. The WMO does. Right?

[fasterdisaster]

I agree, but we should be able to say we THINK it will be named Ingrid.

[CrazyC83]

Not to nitpick, but if you think it is a tropical storm, well than call it a tropical storm, not Ingrid. Because then you are just doing what Accuweather does.

It is best to call it "Tropical Storm Eight" or the "Unnamed Tropical Storm" for now if you think the data is right. Only the NHC can assign names.

The NHC doesn't assign names. The WMO does. Right?

The NHC calls the shots to declare a storm a name. The WMO makes the name list.

Still, the data here suggests a tropical storm, regardless of what we want to call it.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of reasons why TD 8 doesn't have much of a future the Saturday and Sunday 200mb wind forecasts. I think it may already have been a TS last night, and possibly will be again tomorrow, but its life is limited by what lies ahead. You can look at current shear maps but they don't tell the whole story. Let's look farther ahead to Saturday and Sunday and see where TD 8 / Ingrid is heading.

I plotted the 18Z GFS 200mb wind barbs (pink) with wind speeds (yellow) and streamlines (blue). On the chart, I indicated the location of upper lows and TD 8. I also indicated the jet core around the perimeter of the lows in advance of TD 8 (white arrows). As you can see, TD 8's time may be quite limited. By the time it nears 55W and is north of 15N it'll be running into increasingly strong westerly wind shear. So if it's going to develop, it needs to do so fairly soon.

Hopefully it’ll be gone in the next 24-36 hours. It doesn’t stand much of a chance of making it across the Caribbean Sea or threatening the east U.S. coast with that pattern.

[Cyclone1]

Ok. Thanks, I figured, but wasn't sure.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html y'all really think td8 is going to survive that? If it does my oh my will I be shaken in my boots.

[RL3AO]

The NHC doesn't assign names. The WMO does. Right?

No, the WMO assigns the NHC to assign names for the Atlantic basin.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html y'all really think td8 is going to survive that? If it does my oh my will I be shaken in my boots.

From that map, dry air shouldn't be a significant factor...