TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Hello32020]

I wouldn't be as confident about it not making it, hope it doesn't make it, but I think it has a fair shot at it.

[jhamps10]

URNT15 KWBC 140032
NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20070914
002230 1414N 04832W 6433 03842 0049 +070 +070 256015 017 030 002 00
002300 1417N 04832W 6430 03845 0051 +069 +068 246014 015 027 000 00
002330 1419N 04832W 6433 03840 0042 +074 +069 234011 016 028 003 00
002400 1421N 04832W 6427 03846 0039 +075 +075 266009 011 028 001 00
002430 1423N 04832W 6432 03840 0035 +076 +076 276009 011 032 006 00
002500 1425N 04832W 6432 03838 0031 +078 +078 289003 004 032 008 00
002530 1428N 04832W 6431 03837 0028 +078 +078 265010 012 030 006 00
002600 1430N 04832W 6432 03834 0028 +077 +077 265013 014 031 005 00
002630 1432N 04832W 6431 03834 0022 +080 +080 260010 014 030 005 00
002700 1434N 04832W 6429 03837 0013 +087 +083 217002 005 028 000 00
002730 1436N 04832W 6430 03836 0001 +095 +078 124009 011 029 000 00
002800 1438N 04832W 6429 03839 9989 +107 +058 087016 022 030 000 00
002830 1440N 04832W 6430 03841 9988 +112 +033 081022 023 025 000 00
002900 1443N 04832W 6431 03840 9988 +113 +022 085022 023 020 000 00
002930 1445N 04832W 6432 03840 9994 +111 +021 093023 023 021 000 00
003000 1447N 04832W 6432 03842 9995 +110 +025 093021 022 020 000 00
003030 1449N 04832W 6432 03844 9997 +110 +029 089019 020 020 000 00
003100 1451N 04832W 6432 03844 0012 +101 +027 080023 025 020 000 00
003130 1453N 04832W 6431 03848 0019 +097 +022 079025 025 023 000 00
003200 1456N 04832W 6432 03847 0026 +093 +024 082025 025 026 000 03

Pressure down to 999mb...

Everything I see looks like a TS to me.

[RL3AO]

Wow. 999mb extrap.

[robbielyn]

it's the tutt, the shear, not the dry air that is going to kill this thing. I wish it wouldn't die but the truth is if it survives the shear then this will be a force to reckon with because of the insurmountable odds.

[canegrl04]

Pressure is 999mb Say hello to TS Ingrid

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is 999mb Say hello to TS Ingrid

That is extrapolated, but I can't see it being much higher than that, maybe 1000 or 1001.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moving On, with a pressure of 999 mb i would expect
Ingrid.

[Cyclenall]

I think the name "Ingrid" is a weird name for a girl. It doesn't sound like a name either. Ingrid has been used for at least 1 powerful tropical cyclone elsewhere on the planet.

I think it's a TS now. 999 mb is good.

[Brent]

With a 999 mb pressure, I don't see how this is not a TS. That is very very low.

I also think Ingrid is a weird name, LOL

[Weatherfreak14]

This reminds me soo much of what katrinia started out to be..... it was a TD then got walloped by shear then came back as the most memorible hurricane of all time.

[fci]

Few random observations:

- What difference does it really make if people refer to TD 8 as a future Tropical Storm or call it Ingrid? Nothing else is close to be called Ingrid at this point as TD 8 is the only active system. So what is the harm? What if it never gets named? No harm, no foul

- Everyone who is getting hyped about TD 8 should read wxman57 post on the prior page of this thread. It presents the real chance that all this speculation is for naught.

- Personal attacks are taboo. If you don't like someone's prediction, ignore it. BETTER YET, SEND THEM A PM AND HAVE IT OUT THERE AND NOT ON THE BOARD. If YOU are attacked, PM the attacker and don't have it out on the board. I had this situation and even though it did not get resolved by the PM's we at least kept it off of the board.

Now, off of my soapbox...................

[BigA]

This reminds me soo much of what katrinia started out to be..... it was a TD then got walloped by shear then came back as the most memorible hurricane of all time.

This is true, but let us not forget that for every sheared storm that becomes a Katrina or Andrew, there are dozens if not hundreds that are simply destroyed. But yeah, I agree that the conditions farther west of the shear should be more favorable.

[gatorcane]

Here are a couple of reasons why TD 8 doesn't have much of a future the Saturday and Sunday 200mb wind forecasts. I think it may already have been a TS last night, and possibly will be again tomorrow, but its life is limited by what lies ahead. You can look at current shear maps but they don't tell the whole story. Let's look farther ahead to Saturday and Sunday and see where TD 8 / Ingrid is heading.

I plotted the 18Z GFS 200mb wind barbs (pink) with wind speeds (yellow) and streamlines (blue). On the chart, I indicated the location of upper lows and TD 8. I also indicated the jet core around the perimeter of the lows in advance of TD 8 (white arrows). As you can see, TD 8's time may be quite limited. By the time it nears 55W and is north of 15N it'll be running into increasingly strong westerly wind shear. So if it's going to develop, it needs to do so fairly soon.

Hopefully it’ll be gone in the next 24-36 hours. It doesn’t stand much of a chance of making it across the Caribbean Sea or threatening the east U.S. coast with that pattern.

I see your points but predicting shear is always been difficult by the models and afterall it is September things can change quickly in the tropics.

If it can survive that swath that I mentioned earlier its a go with this one to reach hurricane status -- but that is about 5-7 days from now.

On another note should (Ingrid?) threaten Florida (which I'm not saying it will)...look at all the "throwback names" impacting Florida recently.

She would fit right in

Jeanne, Wilma, Frances.....Ingrid.

Sounds like names from the 1940s...coincidentally the active phase for Florida hits.

[jhamps10]

003700 1511N 04832W 6431 03853 9911 +083 +024 074021 030 031 000 00
003730 1513N 04832W 6431 03854 0051 +081 +031 102021 022 031 000 00
003800 1515N 04832W 6432 03853 9906 +084 +020 077021 030 030 000 00
003830 1518N 04832W 6432 03853 9885 +085 +018 075021 032 030 000 00
003900 1520N 04832W 6432 03854 9877 +084 +019 074021 032 030 000 00

Most likely suspect though....

[perk]

Few random observations:

- What difference does it really make if people refer to TD 8 as a future Tropical Storm or call it Ingrid? Nothing else is close to be called Ingrid at this point as TD 8 is the only active system. So what is the harm? What if it never gets named? No harm, no foul

- Everyone who is getting hyped about TD 8 should read wxman57 post on the prior page of this thread. It presents the real chance that all this speculation is for naught.

- Personal attacks are taboo. If you don't like someone's prediction, ignore it. BETTER YET, SEND THEM A PM AND HAVE IT OUT THERE AND NOT ON THE BOARD. If YOU are attacked, PM the attacker and don't have it out on the board. I had this situation and even though it did not get resolved by the PM's we at least kept it off of the board.

Now, off of my soapbox...................

What are you talking about, what personal attacks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This system is getting organized better.

Recon should find some better data
for the models.

Some forecasting possibilities:
NOT OFFICIAL. FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION***
I will give my analysis here. I use analysis behind
my forecasts. Thank you.

Strong Ridge
Favorable Conditions
Warm Waters
Explosive Heat Content

24 hours- 65 mph
48 hours- 70 mph
72 hours- 75 mph
96 hours- 95 mph
120 hours- 120 mph

Track just north of the islands.

[fci]

"What are you talking about, what personal attacks."
Earlier in this thread unless the Mods cleaned them up.

[jhamps10]

***NOT OFFICIAL. FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION***
I will give my analysis here. I use analysis behind
my forecasts. Thank you.

Strong Ridge
Favorable Conditions
Warm Waters
Explosive Heat Content

24 hours- 65 mph
48 hours- 70 mph
72 hours- 75 mph
96 hours- 95 mph
120 hours- 120 mph

Track just north of the islands.

I disagree with ya on the favorable conditions, and the wind speed, but the track, ridge, and warm waters are very good points, but all and all I think the track looks ok here on my book.

[canegrl04]

Here are a couple of reasons why TD 8 doesn't have much of a future the Saturday and Sunday 200mb wind forecasts. I think it may already have been a TS last night, and possibly will be again tomorrow, but its life is limited by what lies ahead. You can look at current shear maps but they don't tell the whole story. Let's look farther ahead to Saturday and Sunday and see where TD 8 / Ingrid is heading.

I plotted the 18Z GFS 200mb wind barbs (pink) with wind speeds (yellow) and streamlines (blue). On the chart, I indicated the location of upper lows and TD 8. I also indicated the jet core around the perimeter of the lows in advance of TD 8 (white arrows). As you can see, TD 8's time may be quite limited. By the time it nears 55W and is north of 15N it'll be running into increasingly strong westerly wind shear. So if it's going to develop, it needs to do so fairly soon.

Hopefully it’ll be gone in the next 24-36 hours. It doesn’t stand much of a chance of making it across the Caribbean Sea or threatening the east U.S. coast with that pattern.

I see your points but predicting shear is always been difficult by the models and afterall it is September things can change quickly in the tropics.

If it can survive that swath that I mentioned earlier its a go with this one to reach hurricane status -- but that is about 5-7 days from now.

On another note should (Ingrid?) threaten Florida (which I'm not saying it will)...look at all the "throwback names" impacting Florida recently.

She would fit right in

Jeanne, Wilma, Frances.....Ingrid.

Sounds like names from the 1940s...coincidentally the active phase for Florida hits.

The "I" names seem to most often affect the US.I agree.If this can run the gauntlet,it stands an excellent chance of becoming a huge hurricane. Hopefully not,though

[Ed Mahmoud]

This system is getting organized better.

Recon should find some better data
for the models.

You don't agree with the forecast shear next Sunday morning, I take it?