Will anything happen to this?

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

theres a wave at 37 west to the northeast of td8 it looks sorta interesting to me, but is shear effecting this wave too? if not then i would like to hear about what you all think of this wave.
it looks nice to me so i'll be watching this.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
Oh man look at this wave like i said this area i'm looking at is north east of td8. is it being sheared or not?

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 21N MOVING SLOWLY
WWD. THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE BASED ON
THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE UW
CIMSS TPW ANIMATION. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED TO REFLECT THIS ALONG
37W/38W FROM 22N-26N. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SFC LOW MAY
FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 22N-24N.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

hey looky the gfs wants to form a sfc low with this wave

[BigA]

This thing looks fairly legitimate right now, even with some southwesterly shear. It wouldnt surprise me if it becomes one of those "add to the count" fish storms. Looks like some spin with it too.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

We're gonna have to wait cause the shear around this system is like 20kt to 30kt. hopefully the shear will lessen then we can really say this might have a chance.

but of course the system looks oh so nice.

[punkyg]

Looky looky it looks better then it did earlier today oh and also
it does not look like its being effected by the shear like i thought it was.
its firing convection just like td8.

[Category 5]

It looks BETTER then TD 8.

[punkyg]

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 21N DRIFTING
WWD. THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE BASED ON
THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE UW
CIMSS TPW ANIMATION. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED TO REFLECT THIS ALONG
38W/39W FROM 22N-26N. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SFC LOW MAY
FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
35W-40W. FURTHER S... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
it still don't look bad.

[CrazyC83]

Doesn't look bad at all. They might want to put 93L on this soon...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection has formed, and some models develop it. So its worth watching.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


The 18z gfdl shows it becoming a tropical storm. But it will be a fish.

[Meso]

5am
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 17N MOVING W
5 TO 10 KT. THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED BASED ON THE
POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
UW CIMSS TPW ANIMATION. A SLOPING TROUGH WAS ANALYZED TO REFLECT
THIS RUNNING FROM 19N40W TO 30N38W. THIS WAVE BREAK IS BEING
INDUCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE NRN PART...TROUGH...CURRENTLY LIES IN
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE WHICH HAS FUELED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE ANALYZED AXIS...DUE TO STRONG
SWLY SHEAR. THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MUCH LESS DEFINED
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-8N.