wxman57 wrote:Here are a couple of reasons why TD 8 doesn't have much of a future the Saturday and Sunday 200mb wind forecasts. I think it may already have been a TS last night, and possibly will be again tomorrow, but its life is limited by what lies ahead. You can look at current shear maps but they don't tell the whole story. Let's look farther ahead to Saturday and Sunday and see where TD 8 / Ingrid is heading.
I plotted the 18Z GFS 200mb wind barbs (pink) with wind speeds (yellow) and streamlines (blue). On the chart, I indicated the location of upper lows and TD 8. I also indicated the jet core around the perimeter of the lows in advance of TD 8 (white arrows). As you can see, TD 8's time may be quite limited. By the time it nears 55W and is north of 15N it'll be running into increasingly strong westerly wind shear. So if it's going to develop, it needs to do so fairly soon.
Hopefully it’ll be gone in the next 24-36 hours. It doesn’t stand much of a chance of making it across the Caribbean Sea or threatening the east U.S. coast with that pattern.
Another interruption by a Pro-Met providing analysis backed by data, logic, experience and education.
Please ignore and return to the Katrina/ Andrew analogies immediately.
Thank you.
