TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Regit]

So basically, extrapolating the NHC 11 P.M. track and discussion, we have a fish storm that is going to get destroyed by a TUTT? yes?

Just because a track looks like that doesn't mean it can't bend back west. If you looked at Hugo's track up to the point that it crossed PR, you'd think it was going to be a fish.

[DrewFL]

In my experience we are all better at forecasting TUTT lows than the NHC. They are just not not there with that feature.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think this is gonna do what katrina did in some extent...this will likely weaken, possibly open up at some point, but when conditions improve, maybe near the bahamas or in the gulf, we could see regeneration. just my opinion...thoughts?

[aguaviva]

I seem to notice on water vapor that the upper low located north of Puerto Rico is moving west southwest and something that looks like a high building in from the northeast which seems to be the cause. Am I correct or am I misunderstanding what is going on?

[hurricanetrack]

Look at that:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Four tropical lows out there: Ingrid, low in SW Carib, low SE of Ingrid and a low NW of Ingrid

The tropics are loaded for bear- to steal a phrase from the grrrrrrreat Joe B.

(you gotta roll the rrrr's)

Seriously though, the tropics do look busy even with all this talk of King Tutt. Interesting times ahead....

[DrewFL]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD


AT 250 HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS TO BECOME NARROW AND
ELONGATED THROUGH 48-60 HRS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IT IS TO MEANWHILE PROVIDE VENTILATION ALOFT
IN SUPPORT OF TD 8 OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at that:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Four tropical lows out there: Ingrid, low in SW Carib, low SE of Ingrid and a low NW of Ingrid

The tropics are loaded for bear- to steal a phrase from the grrrrrrreat Joe B.

(you gotta roll the rrrr's)

Seriously though, the tropics do look busy even with all this talk of King Tutt. Interesting times ahead....

What one do you think has the most chance to develop into the next named system?

[Ptarmigan]

Ingrid is struggling, but it could pull a rabbit out of the magic hat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks better then it did last night. Convection over the center.

[Zardoz]

I don't see a struggling system here, at the moment:

Floater Two

[DrewFL]

THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR...TROPICAL STORM INGRID...FORMS TO
THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N
48.7W AT 14/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 735 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NIGHT CHANNEL
VIS IMAGES SHOW AN OVERALL SLIGHT IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF INGRID
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITIONED BETWEEN WEAK BANDS TO THE N
AND W OF THE CENTER AND VERY NEAR THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CIRCULATION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
...OVAL-LIKE SHAPED...FROM 13.5N-15.5N BETWEEN 48W-49W. GIVEN
THE MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER STEADY STATE OR WEAKENING
IS LIKELY AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.

[KWT]

Of cours eit should be noted that this shear won't be present if the system can survive past 5-7 days, it'll probably likely reduce quite a lot as a large high re-builds to the north of that region. This feature could well send Ingrid back west as well and we could well see Ingrid become stronger again. Its going to be a wait and see. Its worth noting that the 0z GFS has slghtly eased back on the shear expected in the region where Ingrid goes, will be interesting to see if thats the start of a trend. Think of this situation like Andrew, this system will have a hard time but if it can get past a pretty favorable set-up may well emerge.

[Meso]

First visible images coming through

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The "Real" Ingrid the beast...130 knots. This is Ingrid in better days(to a cyclone I mean that for). Pretty much this is ingrid with out KING TUTT.

[Chacor]

That track isn't accurate, it's far too short. Wonder why.

BOM track:


JTWC track:

[cycloneye]

I think is safe to say that Puerto Rico,is out of the woods.However still the U.S VI,BVI and northern Leewards are in the cone so those who live in those islands have to continue to watch how Ingrid is moving.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think they are totally out of the woods yet. The system to the northeast could not develop like the models forecasting, and enough surface ridging could build to keep this west-northwest. Also the trough that comes into the western Atlantic could be a lot less far south and weaker.

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2007
AT 5 AM
INGRID WAS AT 15.1 NORTH 49.2 WEST AND WAS MOVING AT 6 KNOTS
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW IT STRENGTHENING
SLIGHTLY...BUT THEN WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS HIGHER SHEAR IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE CLOSER TO US. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY ALL THE MODELS NOW. MODELS
SEEM TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING INGRID TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH LITTLE OR NO WINDS AND NO MORE MOISTURE
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING EXPECTED HERE. THE TAIL MAY
BRING A SHOT OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS
BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRYER FRIDAY. THEN...SATURDAY...ANOTHER BAND
OF MOISTURE RIDES AHEAD OF A MODEST WIND SURGE GENERATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A WESTWARD MIGRATING HIGH PRESSURE AT 850
MB.

[HURAKAN]

Chacor, because only showed Ingrid's path in Eastern Australia. As Ingrid moved westward it entered the Northern Area of respensibility and therefore there is another track for that. By the way, the highest winds were 135 knts.