Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[destruction92]

I see the 12z runs of CMC, MM5FSU, GFS, NOGAPS all wanting to close off a low in the SW Carib. by Monday/Tues. of next week. With this many jumping on board I do believe this will take over as the next player once the UL shear gets done with TD8. The CMC and I believe it was the MM5FSU deepen the system rapidly and move it off on a northerly course.

could you provide a link or some graphics of the models please?

[boca]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I think thats the site.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow- that is true. I just looked at the models and geez, it's like we're asleep at the wheel here! And the new 00Z GFS has a 1008 closed low north of Panama in 36 hours!

Wake up people! Something could sneak in the back door. Going to have to watch that area closely after we bury Ingrid.

[Vortex]

Noticed the same hurricanetrack....Gfs at H54 maintains the low...For mid september dont these systems usually head west into Central America or the western gulf? A month from now florida would be paying very close attention..Anyone have any famous mid-september storms that formed in the SW carribean?

[flwxwatcher]

The 0Z GFS takes it west. I have been watching the MM5 and it seems to have a northward bias and not real big on any CMC solutions. It is something to watch for at least.

[KWT]

Quite a large mass of convection down there right now so it may need watching, it seems this area of the Caribbean it doesn't take much for those sorts of systems to get going.

[Meso]

Wow... 00z EURO

168 hours




240 Hours



O_o

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not likely at all, I don't trust any model pass 7 days.

[weatherwindow]

given the "early fall" pattern and the persistent longwave eastern trof with its procession of shortwaves rotating thru it....we may see, in the last half of sept, a carib/gom synoptic setup reminiscent of october..with the spinup of a series of carib lows drawn north by the incursion of deepening gom trofs...a classic late season pattern, the beginnings of which the models may be sniffing out......rich

[ronjon]

Well, we now have the 00Z Euro (9/14), UKMET, FSU MM5, and CMC showing SW caribbean development. I don't have the 00Z NOGAPs yet but yesterday it was showing development in this region also. The GFS for several runs last week developed this feature and moved it north into the GOM but now wants to move it west across CA. We are getting toward the time of the year for western caribbean storms and with a La Nina this year it may be a very busy fall.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of convection. Persistence is the key.

[Meso]

The 5am TWD for what it's worth.Although the models develop something in a few days there I think.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SW CARIB ROUGHLY S OF 15N W OF 75W. THE
CONTRIBUTING LOW-LEVEL SYSTEMS INCLUDE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 87W AND THE ITCZ WHICH BASED ON QSCAT DATA APPEARS TO RUN
ALONG 10N-11N. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE THE MAIN LIFTING
MECHANISMS. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW...VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES...HAS SET UP ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIB
BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER
CUBA AND AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ERN CARIB. THIS FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
CONTAINED S OF 20N W OF 75W. THE AIR GREATLY DRIES OUT E OF
75W...THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED HAS MOISTENED THE
ENVIRONMENT HELPING TO PRODUCE TRADE WIND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
LIKELY OVER THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE.

[Frank2]

Per the above TCD:

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW...VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES...HAS SET UP ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIB
BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER
CUBA AND AN UPPER LOW N OF THE ERN CARIB.

so, models or no, at this time, no development seems likely, at least in the short term...

My guess is that remainder of the season, despite La Nina, will end fairly quickly, due to encroaching westerlies and increasing amounts of shear from troughs and ULL's (i.e., Ingrid's forecasted weakening)...

If I recall correctly, this was also the case in 2002 after Hurricane Lili made landfall - at that point, the season ended on October 2, due strong westerlies across the Gulf and Northwest Caribbean...

Now that I think of it, the Fall and Winter of 2002-2003 were colder than normal in the eastern half of the U.S. - this general pattern seems to be heading in that direction again this year, so, it's very possible that we are down to the last few weeks of hurricane season...

[Stratosphere747]

While looking at the GFS when Humberto was an invest over the last week -

It would occasionally close off something in the SW Caribbean, bringing it into the GOM. Typical back and forth stuff that the GFS does.

[Frank2]

Most don't realize that tropical cyclone formation is possible almost year-round in the southwest Caribbean - but that doesn't mean it'll be able to migrate anywhere else...

Southwest Florida was struck once or twice in February by tropical storms that formed in the southwest Caribbean many years ago, and, we had an unnamed tropical storm cross extreme Southern Florida in April, 1979, so...

As you said, it seems the models do this in that area from time to time, only to drop the system a day or two later...

[Meso]

It is an area that models do often pick up development on even though they shouldn't,but those models always seem to be the NAM and CMC for the area.But when the EURO shows something I will pay attention to the area.I don't think there will be any development within the next 2 or 3 days,but maybe 5 or so days away there may be something to watch.

[Stratosphere747]

No question Frank. Earlier in the season I tried to caution folks every time there was a flare-up in the SW Caribbean. No telling how many times we have em. Always something to keep a wary eye on, especially if a consensus of the models continue to latch on to it, and it festers down there.

I'm now more into these simple homegrown 18hr systems...

[flwxwatcher]

The 0Z NOGAPS does develope something down there and moves it North, Shear is high in that area so it would be a few days before anything could take hold IMHO.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091400

[Derek Ortt]

2002 was an el nino year

I do not forsee the season ending early, as that is highly atypical of la nina years.

We also have to watch for high latitude developments in October and November. That is what helped 2001 to be so active

[HURAKAN]

We also have to watch for high latitude developments in October and November. That is what helped 2001 to be so active

In 2001 we had 15 named storm, of which 7 formed after October 1st (Iris - Olga).