Weatherfreak000's Tropical Storm Ingrid Forecasts

[Weatherfreak000]

(Trying to keep the Active Storms forums less cluttered...people shouldn't post forecasts there).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The Area of Investigation (91L) has finally acquired enough organization and has been designated Tropical Depression Eight. Currently according to the official plots the system is located at 13.2N , 44.6W moving off generally to the West-north-west and this general motion should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.

Currently, TD 8 has a very classical Cape Verde Style structure, which is mostly due to the Saharan Air Layer and Easterly Wind Shear. It is very typical for storms in this area to struggle intensity wise and with moderate dry air intrusion and Shear present, i'll forecast as such. In this part of the Atlantic one must always watch out for surprising increases and decreases in favorable conditions, but all models forecast at least some moderate strengthening over the next few days.

The forecast right now holds that a Ridge of High Pressure in place over the Central Atlantic should steer TD 8 on a track towards the general WNW and in the next few days a Trough is expected to weaken the ridge somewhat and allow the storm to move more Poleward. However, recent satellite imagery suggests the storm's current movement is probably mostly West which perhaps a slightly Northerly component. Recent Model Guidance from GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET are quite significantly different, as this image will suggest...



The future track will be highly dependent upon how well the ridging holds together, and while nothing is ever certain, with TD 8 it appears we have our first possible threat to the Continental United States. I expect in the future the ridging will be much stronger then expected currently (as it has been all year) and bend TD 8 back to a more Western track, and this will be reflected in my forecast image. I expect with a track into the Northern Eastern Caribbean strengthening into a Hurricane is possible at the end of the forecast period. All interests in the Caribbean Islands need to watch this potentially threatening storm quite closely.



Initial Coordinates: 13.2N, 44.6W- 35 MPH
12 Hr: 13.6N, 45.8W- 35 MPH
24 Hr: 13.9N, 47.1W- 40 MPH
36 Hr: 14.3N, 48.3W- 45 MPH
48 Hr: 14.5N, 49.3W- 50 MPH
72 Hr: 14.7N, 51.3W- 60 MPH

(As Always, subject to large error)
96 Hr: 15.6N, 54.4W- 65 MPH
120 Hr: 16.3N, 57.5W- 70 MPH


-Anthony Steger.

[Weatherfreak000]

Forecast #2


Things are looking rather grim for TD 8. After a slight increase in organization it appears over the night as Humberto blossomed this system deteriorated. The once complex structure completely filled with convection activity has been stripped on all sides up the Eastern Quadrant by a dual attack of shear and dry air. However on the brighter side, it appears conditions should be slightly more favorable after the next 24 hours and the storm should still be able to become Ingrid.

Currently TD 8 is located at 13.9N, 48.0W and moving generally still to the Westnorthwest. It has somewhat slowed a bit due to heavy Winds but should generally continue this motion. I expect Ridging could potentially still strengthen enough to kept this probably shallow system into the North-Eastern Caribbean during the next few days and it appears strengthening until a Hurricane, unless TD 8 can survive the hostile conditions ahead, is becoming highly unlikely.



Initial Coordinates: 13.9N, 48.0W- 35 MPH
12 Hr: 14.0N, 48.8W- 35 MPH
24 Hr: 14.3N, 49.8W- 35 MPH
36 Hr: 14.6N, 50.8W- 40 MPH
48 Hr: 15.0N, 51.7W- 45 MPH
72 Hr: 15.8N, 53.7W- 50 MPH

(As Always, subject to large error)
96 Hr: 16.0N, 56.6W- 55 MPH
120 Hr: 16.0N, 59.0W- 55 MPH

-Anthony Steger

[Weatherfreak000]

Forecast #3

TD 8 has finally intensified enough to be called Tropical Storm Ingrid. Although the intensity is set officially at 35 Kt, I wouldn't be surprised if it were more like 40Kt.


Ingrid has been holding steady currently at 15.1N,49.2W, moving at the same pace it was been for the past two forecasts. A change to the forecast due to a large TUTT has occured. This will likely shear the system apart, and keep it weak, moving it through the Caribbean and this will be shown in my forecast. Regeneration in the Western Caribbean should be monitored and the possibility the low can also get far North to escape to the Bahamas exist and Regeneration in both spots should be monitored.

Initial Coordinates: 15.1N, 49.2W- 40 MPH
12 Hr: 15.4N, 50.0W- 45 MPH
24 Hr: 16.0N, 51.0W- 50 MPH
36 Hr: 16.5N, 52.0W- 50 MPH
48 Hr: 17.0N, 53.1W- 45 MPH
72 Hr: 17.5N, 55.8W- 40 MPH

(As Always, subject to large error)

96 Hr: 17.7N, 58.2W- 35 MPH
120 Hr: 18.0N, 60.2W- 35 MPH

-Anthony Steger