Hurricane Marylin 14th September 1995

[Gustywind]

Ohh miss Marylin......what a terrific cane on Guadeloupe this 14th of September 1995 crossing the island during that memorable and anxious night for all residents , and particulary those who were living in the south tip of the island ( Basse Terre-Vieux Fort) as Huc ...
We can't forget all damages due to "a small cat 1hurricane " with 999mb:heavy downpours during the episode... muslides, strong gusty winds at 86kts and higher, numerous flooding, houses under water, rivers in fury....hopefully Marylin was passing very fast and were beginning her early stages of noticeable organization.
Whereas, after this sad night, in the same path Puerto Rico have felt the effects of a strong Cat 3 hurricance with 97kts sustained winds and gusts at 113 kts!!! . So we were so lucky compared
to them...definitely history for them, respectfully with my whole humility Puerto Rico!

!But the characteristic of Marylin was her unpredicable sidemeaning the lack of confidence by the authorities in putting warnings too late...bringing panik in the island:
many of us had been fighting a few hours(2h)against strong showers and gusts at 35kt without any warnings...amazing experience!!!
Moreover Marylin's path was a nightmare...the NHC was talking
about a system drifting west at the beginning, but forecasts after forecasts, they may underestmatimed the NW movement of Marylin...
Marylin was on well prononced NW course but.... the first predictions were something like Grenadines... ST Vincent...ST Lucia, Martiniqua, and.....Marylin decided to pass well north of these islands and Dominique too... [color=#FF0000]churning near Guadeloupe with the story of we all...won't forget.[/color] As far i'm concerned, i tkink that Marylin is the lastest big cane in all residents memory due to the lately warning alert...producing many troubles and amplifing the uncomprehension of this unbeliveable feature.
Unforgetable cane for us, inolvidable para mis amigos de Puerto Rico

[Sanibel]

Don't forget St Thomas.

[Gustywind]

yeah man i dont' forget my neighbours!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

wasn't the hurricane warning for Guadeloupe issued after hurricane force winds were reported?

[Gustywind]

No i don't tkink that or...my head is deceiving me lol, i tkink that you're reffering about IRIS always in 1995...a reconnaissance plane (NHC) fond in fact a poorly organized center in the west of the island , but a new one was forming in the east near St François in Guadeloupe with TS force winds of 50kts.... Derek if if if my head doesn't deceiving me lol Note for the info that Ingrid " was ex Iris" there's 12 years ago"....

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995marilyn.html

when Marilyn made landfall at jenny Point, Dominica, the Hurricane warning was issued at Guadeloupe

A TS warning was issued prior, however

[Gustywind]

It was maybe issued by the NHC on the paper Derek yeah absolulety.... all the Leewards were in warning but Guadeloupe not...the authorities put us on alert red "ex alerte 2 renforcée" (alert 2 renforced)at 6pm14/09/07 and Marylin was at a few miles of us 50km... the center passed at 30 km in the sea near Basse Terre.
The fact is that, the NHC can say warnings but the role of the authorities is to assume the scale of the risk in theory....putting the island or not and confirmed the thread or not!!!
In my opinion put an alert red at 2pm were entierely reasonable , but thus this year (1995) was unbelievable in terms of frequency of canes ( 3 canes in the same year in 3 weeks that's amazing...unusual not unlikely for this year 1995!!) and playing on the alerts: too early or late( the lack of knowledge of the authorities seeing this suscipious scenario ....a feature that you did not attend maybe for them!)
Whereas the strategy is very difficult sometimes, but in my humble opinion i 'd prefer put alerts early in case of , whereas make the" perfect choice" on an island is conditionned by many factors Derek....it's a long philosophy of the way of expect hurricanes ( preparation , life)...and that's not easy when most of the residents believed in only strongs canes like 1928, HUGO , or Marylin , but the reference is ALWAYS HUGO the past in terms of strong cane...usually they said:" " this one is a cat 4 so it's serious, so let's prepared us ")....Hugo is always huge reference for many residents...and it's maybe a be beautifull mistake, a simple organized wave can bring bad conditions....death...as Monday morning with the last wave organizing on Guadeloupe during the night between Sunday and Monday Morning..... big thunderstorms put us in the blackout without electricity during 4 hours....hopefully the big convective activity had diminished....whereas localized heavy showers and nice thunderstorms have occured..... very large topic to debate on all this philosophy in terms of preparation life on the islands, keep in my mind that right now we have the net to track , but before 2000 very much difficult and another problem for me in the island is the fact that we have too much informations compared to years before , and too much informations...without clearence beetween the medias the forecasters the authorities....something to watch !

[Derek Ortt]

The warnings stated by NHC are those that are issued by the local gov'ts. Maybe it took the additional hour before that was released to the public. Notice the long delay between ther est of the warnings bein under warnings compared to France.

France is the only country that does not use the 24-36 hour lead time for a hurricane warningin the western Hemisphere. They tend to use a 6-12 hour lead time (which I feel is appropriate for a tropical storm, but not for a hurricane)

[HUC]

Hi,gustywind,i read your messages,and hope you can contact me by mail;i saw all hurricanes in Guadeloupe since Betsy in 1956!!! So, i will be glad to talk to you.Perhaps we known each other??? MARYLIN WAS A REAL NIGHTMARE,for a lot of reasons that you and others have partially indicated on this board.