TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Nimbus]

You can see the ULL north of Ingrid dropping southwest as it rotates around an anticyclone. If Ingrid was moving slower or stalls she could handle a day or two of shear from that. Being a small storm with tight LLC helps with the shear but no storm could withstand a 5 day TUTT encounter.

Currently it looks like an ULL cutting off and rolling west in the WV imagery at the location the TUTT is supposed to form. That would support Dereks scenario. Whenever you have two ridges like this you will either have a persistant TUTT between the ridges or a low will cutoff and rotate around the western ridge.

Even if the TUTT cuts off there still may be enough ULL shear to shred Ingrid but I expect some model changes the next few days.

[CrazyC83]

One thing though - the tropics can surprise at any turn. The shear may abate at any time by surprise...

[Gustywind]

I can forecast how this board will go for the next few days if Ingrid does survive.

Ingrid starts losing convection: the board all claims they were right and Ingrid is dead
Ingrid becomes a naked swirl: post start up immediately with phrases like stick a fork in it, it's dead Jim, next, etc.
Everyone pats themselves on the back for a forecast well done.

2 days later Ingrid exits the shear and regains convection. New posts will start about her forecast of intensity and landfall chances and not one mention of the prior dead forecasts and how bad it busted. Ingrid makes landfall at "x" location and those who chose that location will then again pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

[KWT]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even if it does survive this round of shearing the GFS and quite possibly the other models show yet another TUTT forming a little wes tof this one and will once again get sheared severely even if it survives this round.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew only had 2 days of shear, though it did have a strong SAL

Katrina did have very strong shear, and it dissipated TWICE before forming (was carried internally as a TD for a while). Most storms do not do that

Irene "survived" for several days, but QS and recon found it ws an open wave while it was being carried as a TD or a TS

[Derek Ortt]

The TUTT is not what cuts off

it is the east coast trough that cuts off

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ge_14km_wv

WV loop that really shows the current situation. If it survives it will be interesting.

[canegrl04]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ge_14km_wv

WV loop that really shows the current situation. If it survives it will be interesting.

If it were to somehow survive,I think this one goes down as the most notable storm of the season.Even with Dean ,Felix and Humberto already in the books

[mitchell]

Accuweather should really do better than this type of half-baked and cartoonish one-size-fits-all graphic.
- There is no eye and won't be anytime soon. So why use the term?
- The red line is what? best track? 6 days out? Stick with a cone..the line is meaningless.

[tolakram]

I can't really tell if the convection is falling apart of the that last burst is holding on.

[storms in NC]

You can see the ULL north of Ingrid dropping southwest as it rotates around an anticyclone. If Ingrid was moving slower or stalls she could handle a day or two of shear from that. Being a small storm with tight LLC helps with the shear but no storm could withstand a 5 day TUTT encounter.

Currently it looks like an ULL cutting off and rolling west in the WV imagery at the location the TUTT is supposed to form. That would support Dereks scenario. Whenever you have two ridges like this you will either have a persistant TUTT between the ridges or a low will cutoff and rotate around the western ridge.

Even if the TUTT cuts off there still may be enough ULL shear to shred Ingrid but I expect some model changes the next few days.

Who said there will be a five days of TUTT? They can't really go past a 3 day out look in weather. Weather is a hard thing to predict that far out. It could move, it could despate or ease up what ever. I don't think the TUTT will be there 5 days from now. JMO And it could very will go POOF. It will not be the fist one to do so or the last. I think Chris did go POOF after they called it to become a hurricane. I think it was chris. Will look it up and see.

Was chris went from Aug 1-4 and went to his grave as a TS

[cycloneye]

Lets see how Ingrid moves thru all these brickwalls.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still, unoffically think my desert topping/floor wax, everyone is right, Ingrid is sheared down to a nearly convectionless cloud swirl or even open wave, slowly gets past ridge, than starts all over again to re-develop close enough to land that fish storm is unlikely scenario, with people 6 days from now on this locked (when THC drops it as a cyclone) then unlocked (when it becomes an invest again) thread will be predicting a Cat 3 hurricane aimed right at the nearest coastal town to their home, somewhere between Port Aransas, Texas and Bar Harbor, Maine. Or maybe Nova Scotia.

[stormchazer]

WXMAN57 throws all his chips on the table..Rest hold..Blackjack or bust baby..!

You might say "I'm all in!" (on the death of Ingrid)

Consider me your financeer. I will back your bet. Ingrid just picked the wrong place at the wrong time.

[curtadams]

Convection is sputtering, which is a strong indicator of shear near what the cyclone can survive. The shear isn't that strong, but I think the comparatively dry air is combining to weaken Ingrid. I think we'll see convection sputter out over the next day or so. The flip side is that a naked Ingrid will take a more southerly route (a la the Accuweather track), making her a candidate for Bahama Momma next week. Still, I agree it's unlikely - although possible - there will be enough left by then.

[tolakram]

Refire, sputter, refire....

How many outflow boundaries is that?

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB says Ingrid is a "red herring", distracts from likely threats closer to home that aren't obvious yet. Says if Ingrid, in some form, does affect US, probably at least 10 days away.

He then showed September 7, 1961 map, compared to forecast 500 mb maps from Euro and GFS.

JB did not say a very large major hurricane that brought wind gusts to hurricane force to nearly the entire coast of Texas. He hasn't pulled the trigger on this, and he has backed away from Humberto the Sequel somewhat. (Too much moisture pulled away, surface low too weak, can't rule out TD/weak TS for South Texas, but not forecasting it).

[storms in NC]

If is does survive it would be more a Fla Storm IMO Not a TX one

[Ed Mahmoud]

If is does survive it would be more a Fla Storm IMO Not a TX one

Ingrid- I don't see how this could threaten Texas. JB is talking about something else.

Getting late in the season for a major to hit Texas. Of course, Rita just missed, and 941 mb pressure and 82 knot winds were felt in Port Arthur area, later than this. 1989 was minimal Cat 1 Jerry in October.

1949 a strong Cat 2, possible Cat 3 hit Freeport, TX on October 3rd.


Late season hits aren't absolutely impossible for Texas, but they are very, very, very rare.

Whereas, IIRC, Hurricane Kate was a borderline 2/3 when it hit Florida in November.

[x-y-no]

If is does survive it would be more a Fla Storm IMO Not a TX one

Although I can't see the video (not a subscriber) I'm sure JB isn't talking about Ingrid threatening Texas. He's talking about the SW Caribbean development the ECMWF is predicting.