TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

Indeed HURAKAN!

[skysummit]

Yea, she surely looks good for having no ouflow! I've seen a decrease in the number of outflow boundaries over the past few hours so I'm guessing the reason for increased convection is good low level convergence.

[storms in NC]

I don't think it has really got to the really bad shear yet.

But I really would like to ask this. If the shear is at low level then why would it hurt a TS? It would seem like it would help it. I know high level shears will tear them apart cause of it being high up. But don't understand ground level hurting it. Maybe I have missed something here. Which I could have. Been doing 100 things at one time today.

[chrisnnavarre]

I think that one of the reasons that some people are a little touchy is because there are a few pro-mets on here and one at the NHC that have basically said this is a done deal and that this storm is headed for the grave. If it survives and ends of being a monster storm that effects CONUS, then they will go down in the history books like Issac Cline did in 1900.



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[miamicanes177]

NHC forecaster Avila:
"...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN..."

Since when did the NHC expand their cone out 10+ days? He said "forecast" to remain out to sea. If he said "will likely" or "will probably" when that is one thing. However, Avila is on record forecasting Ingrid will make no landfalls throughout the entirety of its life. This might be an unprecedented forecast from the NHC in going out 10+ days on their track. The 5 day NHC track error is 300 miles so use the 10+ day forecast will extreme caution.

[StormTracker]

Now I understand why my post count is so low!!! Can we please stay on the topic(Re: Tropical Storm INGRID: Discussions & Images)!!!

[Blown Away]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=8

Accuweather still S of the NHC track.

[HurricaneRobert]

That's a lot of convection since this morning.

I do think the 'I' curse will include this one and it will become a cane at some point.

[HURAKAN]

That's a lot of convection since this morning.

Although since it has a vigorous LLC this doesn't apply that much, but we're in DMIN at the moment.

[dtrain44]

Miamicanes, I don't think Avila or the NHC are guaranteeing that Ingrid will never, ever make landfall. I think they're saying that over the lifetime of the advisory/discussion (which includes a five day projection), landfall is extremely unlikely. I've seen no credible evidence that that isn't true. They also explicitly note that the models aren't all agreeing with them.....

I am also a bit surprised at the strength of the NHC's language, but their reasoning for Ingrid avoiding the Leewards is solid and they aren't explicitly ruling out a CONUS impact in the future.....

[alan1961]

Before the season began, I said Ingrid will be a storm to be reckoned with in the U.S. I'm not a pro so I'm sticking to my guns. What ever is left of Ingrid after the next few days, watch out when she gets near the Bahamas.

*No scientific evidence supports my thoughts...they're just my thoughts, but I'm sticking to them.

And at the start of the season when i saw the names summit, that name JERRY stood out for me as a likely BIGGIE and i'm staying with him if he appears.

[HURAKAN]

Before the season began, I said Ingrid will be a storm to be reckoned with in the U.S. I'm not a pro so I'm sticking to my guns. What ever is left of Ingrid after the next few days, watch out when she gets near the Bahamas.

*No scientific evidence supports my thoughts...they're just my thoughts, but I'm sticking to them.

And at the start of the season when i saw the names summit, that name JERRY stood out for me as a likely BIGGIE and i'm staying with him if he appears.

Since it was announced in the spring of 2002, I knew Ingrid was going to be the 9th named storm in the 2007 season!! How is that for a prediction?!?!?!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If Ingrid moves very slowly the ULL to its northwest is forecasted to move westward. In could pull the tutt away from it. So that is what could be happening.

[cycloneye]

We are cleaning the thread from posts that are not important and deviate from the theme of thread.Lets stay on topic please.

[RL3AO]

I find it interesting the NHC lowered it to 35kt with recon en route. Especially with this burst of convection.

[miamicanes177]

Miamicanes, I don't think Avila or the NHC are guaranteeing that Ingrid will never, ever make landfall. I think they're saying that over the lifetime of the advisory/discussion (which includes a five day projection), landfall is extremely unlikely. I've seen no credible evidence that that isn't true. They also explicitly note that the models aren't all agreeing with them.....

I am also a bit surprised at the strength of the NHC's language, but their reasoning for Ingrid avoiding the Leewards is solid and they aren't explicitly ruling out a CONUS impact in the future.....

No, Avila said that Ingrid is forecast to remain out to sea. That is for the duration of its existence and it the boldest forecast I have ever seen from the NHC given the number of uncertainties that exist. I am just as surprised by their confidence as you are.

[StormTracker]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ingrid&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

Accuweather still S of the NHC track.

What model does Accuweather base their storm track on, the GFDL

[RL3AO]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ingrid&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

Accuweather still S of the NHC track.

What model does Accuweather base their storm track on, the GFDL

They use many things for their track.

[CrazyC83]

Latest:

Is it just me, or is that an eye trying to form?

[HURAKAN]

Is it just me, or is that an eye trying to form?

It's your eyes or a burst of convection. I vote for the second!!!