TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[tolakram]

Is it just me, or is that an eye trying to form?

I think that's a tower of convection casting a shadow to the east. I'm not sure if the convection is over the center or not, but I doubt it's anything like an eye.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Thunder44]

Miamicanes, I don't think Avila or the NHC are guaranteeing that Ingrid will never, ever make landfall. I think they're saying that over the lifetime of the advisory/discussion (which includes a five day projection), landfall is extremely unlikely. I've seen no credible evidence that that isn't true. They also explicitly note that the models aren't all agreeing with them.....

I am also a bit surprised at the strength of the NHC's language, but their reasoning for Ingrid avoiding the Leewards is solid and they aren't explicitly ruling out a CONUS impact in the future.....

No, Avila said that Ingrid is forecast to remain out to sea. That is for the duration of its existence and it the boldest forecast I have ever seen from the NHC given the number of uncertainties that exist. I am just as surprised by their confidence as you are.

I think Avila was discussing his reasoning behind his five day forecast. The five day forecast itself just happens to have Ingrid remaining out over open water, not threatening land.

[tolakram]

I posted this a while back but I think it was missed.

I was looking at the atlantic wide view and noticed a large c shaped line of clouds moving to the west, behind Ingrid.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

What is this, a front of some sort? Hopefully it's not too ignorant a question? Will this feature effect Ingrid?

[JTD]

Can someone please change the header in the Active storms forum page header to Tropical Storm Ingrid instead of TD #8.

Also, this storm is reminding me a lot this afternoon of some other storms that refused to die like Epsilon and Zeta.

[storms in NC]

Miamicanes, I don't think Avila or the NHC are guaranteeing that Ingrid will never, ever make landfall. I think they're saying that over the lifetime of the advisory/discussion (which includes a five day projection), landfall is extremely unlikely. I've seen no credible evidence that that isn't true. They also explicitly note that the models aren't all agreeing with them.....

I am also a bit surprised at the strength of the NHC's language, but their reasoning for Ingrid avoiding the Leewards is solid and they aren't explicitly ruling out a CONUS impact in the future.....

No, Avila said that Ingrid is forecast to remain out to sea. That is for the duration of its existence and it the boldest forecast I have ever seen from the NHC given the number of uncertainties that exist. I am just as surprised by their confidence as you are.

I have read every one of the 5PM updates. Could you please show me where he said Out to sea. There is No where I can find.

[miamicanes177]

I have read every one of the 5PM updates. Could you please show me where he said Out to sea. There is No where I can fine.

very top of the 5pm advisory

[NC George]

I have read every one of the 5PM updates. Could you please show me where he said Out to sea. There is No where I can find.

In the first line of the 5 pm Public Advisory:

...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN...

[Derek Ortt]

that line of clouds would be the leading edge of the SAL in all liklihood

[StormTracker]

Looking at were the system is now & the direction (NW) it's heading, pressure & wind categories seem like they might help in holding the system together to get through the shear! I could be wrong...
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[storms in NC]

Got it thanks
But I think he was talking about the 5days. Not sure. But that is what I took it as.. I have never seen then go beyond 5 days.

[HURAKAN]

:idea: Looking at were the system is now & the direction (NW) it's heading, pressure & wind categories seem like they might help in holding the system together to get through the shear! I could be wrong...
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

Lets remember that Ingrid has not reached the worse of the shear. Tomorrow satellite images should show a different storm from what we're looking right now.

[fci]

I have read every one of the 5PM updates. Could you please show me where he said Out to sea. There is No where I can find.

In the first line of the 5 pm Public Advisory:

...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN...

Come on y'all.
An advisory is not set on a "forever" time frame.
The advisory is for the next 5 days and for the next 5 days Ingrid is forecast to remain out to sea and weaken.
Do you dispute that?
And if you do, present some reasoning.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fasterdisaster]

Looks good considering the conditions.

[alan1961]

she's like a swimmer against the tide and the big waves are starting to roll in for the kill in the next hours..if she survives this it will be amazing!

[fasterdisaster]

Can anyone link to a shear map for me please? Thanks

[gerrit]

Can anyone link to a shear map for me please? Thanks

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[CrazyC83]

If she can keep this up for the next 60-80 hours, this could be something we really have to watch. So far, Ingrid is doing quite well in the brutal wind shear.

I'd say 45 kt/1002mb right now.

[cycloneye]

The latest on dvorak image.