Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[canetracker]

EURO for Monday, Sept 24th:

Agree that this is a long way out, but this is the BELOVED Euro. I would laugh it off it were any other model. As ExtremeWXGuy posted, it is nothing to worry about but something to watch for.
PS: On a more humorous note, hopefully its name won't be Karen. I predicted Humberto and Karen in January. Humberto caused some havic for our Tx/La area.

[duris]

I wouldn't make any "NOLA" statements when it concerns a map that is 10 days in the future - especially since that I'll likely change (or even disappear) over the next few model runs...

We actually love the NOLA statements this far out. Keep em coming. Just no 72 hour out statements please.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 150 hours.

[jhamps10]

18z GFS at 102 hours.



18z GFS at 138 hours

that's about the right spot, and close to the right timing, looks interesting to me anyway. will keep a close eye on this.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 162 hours.



18z GFS at 174 hours.

Close to South Florida.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 216 hours.

There is the landfall near the Florida/Alabama border.

[ROCK]

right over the LC also.....GFS never really good at intensity either...ouch...

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, the 18Z GFS decides to jump on the Caribbean development bandwagon. Looks like we may have an interesting week next week.

[ronjon]

Well, now we have the GFS, Euro, UKMET, and NOGAPS on board for western caribbean development in 4-5 days. I'm was dreading a storm coming out of this location and into the GOM because you know its probably going to spin up big time and of course impact someone along the Gulf Coast.

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like also there are some timing differences as the GFS and UKMET are quicker bringing this system North then the EURO. The waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf are prime for development , lets see how things pan out if we do indeed get something to pop.

[ronjon]

And if you believe that 18Z GFS run, it lingers the storm in the GOM more than a week. Ouch!

[ROCK]

here is the MPHI map for the GOM...not that I am saying these types of pressures or winds will materialize but it just gives you idea......

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[canetracker]

Ouch is right! Model concensus seems to be the key right now. Definitely interesting.

[ronjon]

yeah, rock if that storm took the GFS path south of cuba and into the SE GOM it would explode big time.

[jhamps10]

here is the MPHI map for the GOM...not that I am saying these types of pressures or winds will materialize but it just gives you idea......

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

yeah and IMO that seems rather weak looking at how humberto deepened in the NW GOM. I'd say the whole GOM could handle a cat 4 or 5 right now still.

[Ivanhater]

Whoa..not liking the gfs solution! Glad it is far out

[jhamps10]

yeah three things have me concerned about this.

1. most of the models see something brewing up out there, mainly I guess from our convection in the SW Carib.
2. It goes over the loop current, and well I don't think I need to explain to anyone what happens when things get into the LC
3. And finally, it is the GOM, that hasn't been touched much at all this season, so it has all the heat content it wants to let out on a storm. So should something come into the gulf, we could very well have a major on our hands, ESPICALLY if it does go over the loop current.

[hurricanetrack]

18z GFS is on it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is on it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

Mark.look up at page 3,I posted the 18z run.

[ROCK]

here is the MPHI map for the GOM...not that I am saying these types of pressures or winds will materialize but it just gives you idea......

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

yeah and IMO that seems rather weak looking at how humberto deepened in the NW GOM. I'd say the whole GOM could handle a cat 4 or 5 right now still.

I rarely look at the GFS for intensity rather the GFDL....The new HWRF seems to over do it some.....Forecasting intensity is something the NHC is still getting a handle on because of its unpredictablity......we might never see it.....


Yeah guys.....that run verifies AL/Fl could get hit hard....if the timing is off either way you might have an issue for LA or into FL west coast....