GOM concerns late next week?

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from the Sept. 14th 2007 NWS
discussion out of New Orleans, LA
this afternoon.

SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. LATE IN THE WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A BIT OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
GETS CUT OFF AND MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
NOTHING MORE THAN AN EASTERLY WAVE. NONETHELESS WE HAVE ADDED SOME
CHANCE POPS TO THE EXTENDED.

[skysummit]

This is an excerpt from the Sept. 14th 2007 NWS
discussion out of New Orleans, LA
this afternoon.

SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. LATE IN THE WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A BIT OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
GETS CUT OFF AND MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
NOTHING MORE THAN AN EASTERLY WAVE. NONETHELESS WE HAVE ADDED SOME
CHANCE POPS TO THE EXTENDED.

I believe the good ole' 12z Canadian showed a feature developing along this and moving west across the northern Gulf.

[BigA]

I believe the good ole' 12z Canadian showed a feature developing along this and moving west across the northern Gul

[quote="skysummit"]

If every system the Canadian forecasted to develop did develop, the oceans would be too upwelled for anything to develop Nevertheless, this is September, so obviously something to keep in the back of our minds.

[skysummit]

I believe the good ole' 12z Canadian showed a feature developing along this and moving west across the northern Gul

If every system the Canadian forecasted to develop did develop, the oceans would be too upwelled for anything to develop Nevertheless, this is September, so obviously something to keep in the back of our minds.

I know that. It was just a quick response to a post.

It's almost as if posting anything on here is becoming too hard of work. Every time someone mentions the Canadian, we get numerous posts of how bad it is when it comes to the tropics. I believe everyone on here knows all about the Canadian.

Honestly though...it's one of my favorite models b/c it gives me areas to concentrate on. Put it this way...I much rather the Canadian than the GFS when it comes to forecasting cyclones.

[BigA]

Ok. I'm sorry, honestly, no hard feelings from me. You have a good point.

[skysummit]

Ok. I'm sorry, honestly, no hard feelings from me. You have a good point.

LOL...cool I guess I'm just getting sick of seeing posts about the Canadian every time someone posts the CMC. I doubt it'll play out though. However, like you said, it's September so let's watch.

[Diva]

NO MAS! Please, no more Gulf activity this season. I just got my lights back on from Humberto! (...and thousands are still without theirs.)

[southerngale]

While talking about Humberto on a local board, our most respected met (IMO) did mention yesterday, "In the long range, late next week, some models are suggesting that development will occur in the eastern Gulf with the system heading west."
However, please note that HE is not predicting it with that comment... he was just responding to a question.

Fortunately, long range models rarely pan out anyway, and I have no idea if whatever he was referring to is still there today.

[Diva]

I'm gonna rest easy and go with that fact that long range models rarely pan out.

[jlauderdal]

This is an excerpt from the Sept. 14th 2007 NWS
discussion out of New Orleans, LA
this afternoon.

SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S BUT OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. LATE IN THE WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A BIT OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
GETS CUT OFF AND MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
NOTHING MORE THAN AN EASTERLY WAVE. NONETHELESS WE HAVE ADDED SOME
CHANCE POPS TO THE EXTENDED.

Miami AFD this morning
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT SHOW THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AND KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA UNTIL
MORE LONG RANGE MODELS COME IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE DEVELOPING
LOW. SO FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN.

[southerngale]

Here's a few AFD's that mention the possibility of some sort of tropical activity in the GOM next week. At least it's just model runs now and there's nothing actually there!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

<snippet>
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WILL DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FURTHER REDUCING MOISTURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO DROP BELOW AN INCH
WHILE MEAN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 30S. AS EXPECTED ZERO POPS ARE
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE TROF LOOKS TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW SO
KEPT POPS AT A SILENT 10 PERCENT FOR NOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE END AS ALL OF
THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR
THE OUT PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED CHOSE TO NOT BE SO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS/WX/WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS FEATURE.







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

<snippet>
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SE TX TODAY FROM THE N & NE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN N TX MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS SW ZONES TO
INCLUDE ISO PRECIP IN THE FCST TODAY THERE. DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE
MORE NOTICEABLE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL LINGER ACROSS E TX FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK AND AN
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. LLVL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARD
MIDWEEK BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM CONSIDERING MID LEVEL RIDGE
STILL OVERHEAD AT THAT POINT. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME FORM OF
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL THAT TIME OF YEAR... 47







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

<snippet>
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING MOISTURE FIELDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT HANGS UP OVER DEEP S TX AND THE NRN GULF.
MOST RECENT GFS AND NAM IN DECENT AGREEMENT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH A POOL OF MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OR 3RD ON MON. IN FACT MAV GUIDANCE IS GOING
NEARLY 40 POPS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF ON MON NOW. AT THE RISK OF
FLIP FLOPPING W/ THE GFS...WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY MON TO LOW
END CHC...BUT WILL SHAVE ABOUT 10 PERCENT OFF THE MAV KEEPING POPS
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS SW OF A PORT A TO THREE RIVERS LINE.
LOOKS A BIT DRIER REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHRA TUE OR WED. GFS HINTS AT A LITTLE BETTER CHC ON
WED...BEFORE DRYING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...INCREASING SOME
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. INTERESTINGLY THE GFS AND THE ECM
BOTH INDICATE A WRLY MVG TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF NEXT WEEK. WAY TO EARLY TO PUT MUCH CREDENCE IN THIS AND WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

<snippet>
AN UPPER LOW GETS CUT OFF FROM THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND MOVES
WEST THROUGH THE GULF NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SFC
LOW WITH A HINT OF HAVING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL FORM
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. UPPER LOWS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY BENEATH THEM UNLESS THEY SIT OVER A
MARINE AREA LONG ENOUGH AND GREATLY MODIFY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE AREA UPSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW...IN THIS CASE TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE HOSPITABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT.

THIS CASE DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE END OF THE PRESENT FORECAST.
SINCE WE DO EXPECT SOME LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN THIS MODEL
SCENARIO...WE ARE NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
ADVERTISED FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

[skysummit]

I didn't know where to put this...an overview, but possibly two areas to watch for the gulf:

[Kennethb]

I am sure that many of the office AFD's are mentioning this so that they aren't bruned again, such as what happened with Humberto.

[KatDaddy]

Once the trough lifts out the GOM is open for business. Must not forget Rita on the 23 and 24 of Sept.

[cheezyWXguy]

From the DFW AFD this morning:

A feature of interest in the extended forecast is the development of
a TUTT low over Florida on Tuesday that moves west through the Gulf
of Mexico during the work week. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) suggest that this
system gradually acquires tropical cyclone characteristics by Friday
as they forecast an organizing low level circulation and warming
upper level temperatures. Models forecast this system to move into
the Upper Texas coast by next weekend. Regardless of whether the
system becomes a named tropical cyclone...it appears that the chance
of rain will be on the increase by next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Once the trough lifts out the GOM is open for business. Must not forget Rita on the 23 and 24 of Sept.

Have to agree KatDaddy. With all the model guidance and AFD's coming out this AM, it "could" get interesting.

[gboudx]

From the DFW AFD this morning:

A feature of interest in the extended forecast is the development of
a TUTT low over Florida on Tuesday that moves west through the Gulf
of Mexico during the work week. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) suggest that this
system gradually acquires tropical cyclone characteristics by Friday
as they forecast an organizing low level circulation and warming
upper level temperatures. Models forecast this system to move into
the Upper Texas coast by next weekend. Regardless of whether the
system becomes a named tropical cyclone...it appears that the chance
of rain will be on the increase by next weekend.

If Steve McCauley of Channel 8 sees that discussion, he's gonna mention a Cat 5 heading to Texas next weekend. He always overhypes the weather, especially in the winter.

[Portastorm]

I've now seen this scenario painted out as a "trough split" and a "TUTT low eventually acquiring tropical characteristics." Regardless of the synoptics, the pattern looks ripe for action in the GOM this coming week.

With the arrival of that cool front earlier this week in Texas, I was about ready to pronounce the tropical season west of 95w over, thinking the westerlies would rule out. But this week's pattern is very much a summer-like pattern as if we were in August. It's still "game on" for all of us along the GOM!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

we need some good fronts to push thru and kill this season its starting to ramp up, texas, we're up to two hits and hopefully we're done with, got a feeling we're not........

[Ptarmigan]

I've been hearing later next week and weekend, the tropics should be watched. Even Dr. Neil Frank said that too.