Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi, on his pay per view column, a week ago today, predicted a tropical cyclone would form in the Gulf and hit Texas mid to late week, and early afternoon after the AC had been in (partly based on eye temperature) he thought it would hit 990 mb at landfall.


Bastardi now saying at least one hurricane, probably a major, hits Florida or the Gulf next 6 to 10 days, and says while not to focus exactly on Euro landfall prediction, Euro has right idea on lowering pressure in Caribbean, reversal of shearing pattern down there, and a pattern that pulls whatever is in Caribbean into Gulf or Atlantic just off Florida.


JB has also said he has backed off, but not completely abandoned, idea of remnant low of Humberto regenerating to a TD or weak TC and hitting Northern Mexico/South Texas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Joe Bastardi, on his pay per view column, a week ago today, predicted a tropical cyclone would form in the Gulf and hit Texas mid to late week, and early afternoon after the AC had been in (partly based on eye temperature) he thought it would hit 990 mb at landfall.


Bastardi now saying at least one hurricane, probably a major, hits Florida or the Gulf next 6 to 10 days, and says while not to focus exactly on Euro landfall prediction, Euro has right idea on lowering pressure in Caribbean, reversal of shearing pattern down there, and a pattern that pulls whatever is in Caribbean into Gulf or Atlantic just off Florida.


JB has also said he has backed off, but not completely abandoned, idea of remnant low of Humberto regenerating to a TD or weak TC and hitting Northern Mexico/South Texas.

As much as i like too ignore JB and his antics he is batting .800 this year with his development calls this year.

[destruction92]

Joe Bastardi, on his pay per view column, a week ago today, predicted a tropical cyclone would form in the Gulf and hit Texas mid to late week, and early afternoon after the AC had been in (partly based on eye temperature) he thought it would hit 990 mb at landfall.


Bastardi now saying at least one hurricane, probably a major, hits Florida or the Gulf next 6 to 10 days, and says while not to focus exactly on Euro landfall prediction, Euro has right idea on lowering pressure in Caribbean, reversal of shearing pattern down there, and a pattern that pulls whatever is in Caribbean into Gulf or Atlantic just off Florida.


JB has also said he has backed off, but not completely abandoned, idea of remnant low of Humberto regenerating to a TD or weak TC and hitting Northern Mexico/South Texas.

As much as i like too ignore JB and his antics he is batting .800 this year with his development calls this year.

Is he your DM (Designated Meteorologist)?

No wonder he charges for his forecasts...he probably is using his knowledge as well as some expert psychic to give him the edge in forecasting accuracy this year. Nonetheless, he has exceeded my expectations. Good job JB.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi, on his pay per view column, a week ago today, predicted a tropical cyclone would form in the Gulf and hit Texas mid to late week, and early afternoon after the AC had been in (partly based on eye temperature) he thought it would hit 990 mb at landfall.


Bastardi now saying at least one hurricane, probably a major, hits Florida or the Gulf next 6 to 10 days, and says while not to focus exactly on Euro landfall prediction, Euro has right idea on lowering pressure in Caribbean, reversal of shearing pattern down there, and a pattern that pulls whatever is in Caribbean into Gulf or Atlantic just off Florida.


JB has also said he has backed off, but not completely abandoned, idea of remnant low of Humberto regenerating to a TD or weak TC and hitting Northern Mexico/South Texas.

As much as i like too ignore JB and his antics he is batting .800 this year with his development calls this year.

Is he your DM (Designated Meteorologist)?

No wonder he charges for his forecasts...he probably is using his knowledge as well as some expert psychic to give him the edge in forecasting accuracy this year. Nonetheless, he has exceeded my expectations. Good job JB.

I get a real good rate on AccuWeather pro-site, cause I was signed up very early for the internet pay-per-view service.

[frederic79]

I'm no pro but isn't it interesting to notice that so far this year we have had 2 Cat. 5's in the SW Carribean and the only other hurricane to form spun up in less than 24 hours in the northern Gulf. Seems to me that a greater than normal potential exists for a storm that forms in the SW Carribean to become an unusually intense hurricane and if it goes into the Gulf, maintain strength or become stronger until landfall. We know if Humberto had had more real estate, we would have probably seen a major in another 12 hours or so and this happened just offshore. Point is we haven't had any cool fronts (this weekend's notwithstanding) to affect SST's in the Gulf at all. Unlike 1998 when Georges struck near the end of September, when SST's were near 80-82 degrees in the Gulf, temps now are in the 85-87 range. Big difference and Georges was a high-end Cat. 2 at landfall.

[ROCK]

I'm no pro but isn't it interesting to notice that so far this year we have had 2 Cat. 5's in the SW Carribean and the only other hurricane to form spun up in less than 24 hours in the northern Gulf. Seems to me that a greater than normal potential exists for a storm that forms in the SW Carribean to become an unusually intense hurricane and if it goes into the Gulf, maintain strength or become stronger until landfall. We know if Humberto had had more real estate, we would have probably seen a major in another 12 hours or so and this happened just offshore. Point is we haven't had any cool fronts (this weekend's notwithstanding) to affect SST's in the Gulf at all. Unlike 1998 when Georges struck near the end of September, when SST's were near 80-82 degrees in the Gulf, temps now are in the 85-87 range. Big difference and Georges was a high-end Cat. 2 at landfall.

still plenty of heat potential lies untouched in the GOM....Humberto's upwelling was minimal at best......see the map I posted a page back....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I want this to develop and hit me as a tropical storm.

I want to see some action. I'm sick and tired of these dull
and boring, puny barry and andrea. I want some REAL
action. Come on.

Seriously. I want to get the eyewall
center coming in a videotape the stadium effect that
is my DREAM.

I REALLY hope this develops and hits me as a tropical storm.

I'm sorry, but I just REally Love it when the winds pick
up to 40-50 mph it is so awesome to watch!!!! It is the
best part of nature

I always look forward to good tropical storms.
They make me so happy.

/end wish cast

[jhamps10]

I want this to develop and hit me as a tropical storm.

I want to see some action. I'm sick and tired of these dull
and boring, puny barry and andrea. I want some REAL
action. Come on.

Seriously. I want to get the eyewall
center coming in a videotape the stadium effect that
is my DREAM.

I REALLY hope this develops and hits me as a tropical storm.

I'm sorry, but I just REally Love it when the winds pick
up to 40-50 mph it is so awesome to watch!!!! It is the
best part of nature

/end wish cast

TBH, I wouldn't call that a wish-cast, I wouldn't mind a TS, as long as it's only a 40-50 MPH one.

I for one would not want to see this develop into a cane, but with the heat content, depending on upper air conditions at the time, that would almost be a given, should it develop.

Something that will keep my eyes glued this weekend that's for sure.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I want this to develop and hit me as a tropical storm.

I want to see some action. I'm sick and tired of these dull
and boring, puny barry and andrea. I want some REAL
action. Come on.

Seriously. I want to get the eyewall
center coming in a videotape the stadium effect that
is my DREAM.

I REALLY hope this develops and hits me as a tropical storm.

I'm sorry, but I just REally Love it when the winds pick
up to 40-50 mph it is so awesome to watch!!!! It is the
best part of nature

/end wish cast

TBH, I wouldn't call that a wish-cast, I wouldn't mind a TS, as long as it's only a 40-50 MPH one.

I for one would not want to see this develop into a cane, but with the heat content, depending on upper air conditions at the time, that would almost be a given, should it develop.

Something that will keep my eyes glued this weekend that's for sure.

I just hope that a trough gets into the gulf and causes a Ton of shear so that
this can't go above 50 mph and then the same trough causing shear
accelerates it towards florida's west coast.

I miss 2006's alberto with 50 mph gusts. That was
so much fun- It was the best part of last year.

Me and my friends went outside and stood in the winds
and watch the palm trees bend over hard- I loved
that WHooshing wind sound and I loved how
the waves on Tampa Bay got So Big That was the
best part- watching it from the beach
and then driving towards gandy bridge


I was looking at the models on page 3, and I am going
to hope really strongly that the trough pushes it towards
me-

That's the best scenario for everybody- with it being accereted
by a trough the time over the eastern gom would be limited.
it would have like 1 day to cross cuba to FL.

So it would be relatively weak
just like september 2000's gordon.
It would be like a TD in the caribbean
and probably get to 45 mph by the time
it nears FL...unless of course the heat contnet
makes it go to 60 mph...but that would be exciting to
watch from the saint pete beach where
i live only 25 minutes from.

Right after wilma in 2005 when it was slamming
south florida I went to the Beach on saint pete beach
and got to feel strong 35 mph winds with gusts to 47 mph
it was so awesome the waves were like amazing!!!!

Of course though I don't want anybody to get hurt.
No Damage, just some nice strong wind and good surf.

[jhamps10]

I want this to develop and hit me as a tropical storm.

I want to see some action. I'm sick and tired of these dull
and boring, puny barry and andrea. I want some REAL
action. Come on.

Seriously. I want to get the eyewall
center coming in a videotape the stadium effect that
is my DREAM.

I REALLY hope this develops and hits me as a tropical storm.

I'm sorry, but I just REally Love it when the winds pick
up to 40-50 mph it is so awesome to watch!!!! It is the
best part of nature

/end wish cast

TBH, I wouldn't call that a wish-cast, I wouldn't mind a TS, as long as it's only a 40-50 MPH one.

I for one would not want to see this develop into a cane, but with the heat content, depending on upper air conditions at the time, that would almost be a given, should it develop.

Something that will keep my eyes glued this weekend that's for sure.

I just hope that a trough gets into the gulf and causes a Ton of shear so that
this can't go above 50 mph and then the same trough causing shear
accelerates it towards florida's west coast.

I miss 2006's alberto with 50 mph gusts. That was
so much fun- It was the best part of last year.

Me and my friends went outside and stood in the winds
and watch the palm trees bend over hard- I loved
that WHooshing wind sound and I loved how
the waves on Tampa Bay got So Big That was the
best part- watching it from the beach
and then driving towards gandy bridge


I was looking at the models on page 3, and I am going
to hope really strongly that the trough pushes it towards
me-

That's the best scenario for everybody- with it being accereted
by a trough the time over the eastern gom would be limited.
it would have like 1 day to cross cuba to FL.

So it would be relatively weak
just like september 2000's gordon.
It would be like a TD in the caribbean
and probably get to 45 mph by the time
it nears FL...unless of course the heat contnet
makes it go to 60 mph...but that would be exciting to
watch from the saint pete beach where
i live only 25 minutes from.

Right after wilma in 2005 when it was slamming
south florida I went to the Beach on saint pete beach
and got to feel strong 35 mph winds with gusts to 47 mph
it was so awesome the waves were like amazing!!!!

Unfourntally, I don't see that happening though. it's totally possible that the trough does get there, but I HIGHLY doubt it. I think that we will see something develop next week though from the carribean and head towards the US coast. That's as specific as I'll get right now.

[Stormcenter]

Before anyone starts getting really worked up about what some of the models
are saying about the SW carribean disturbance just remember as we get into late September
climatology starts working against tropical systems. They have to deal with more troughs,
fronts, shear, dry air, cool air and if we get a "real" cold front in the GOM, cooler waters. My point is unless conditions are "idea" (possible but less likely in late Sept. and Oct. ) you won't see a Rita or Wilma type storm. As I've said in the past we are not in the middle of 2005 type season when all season long from beginning to end was "open season" to tropical systems. This in my opinion is more of an average type season even with "Dean" and "Felix". I am "not" saying we will not see another "major" hurricane this season but only saying the odds are dropping that the U.S. will feel the wrath of one in 2007 once we get into late September and October. Just my 2 cents.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thats okay...I'll just go on that Tampa Museum of Science hurricane ride
where you get to face 75 mph sustained winds head on

and plus in late september and october theres the chance at a good
recurving tropical storm...so the best part may be yet to come

[TheShrimper]

TBH, if you need directions to the museum, I will gladly give them to you pronto.

[deltadog03]

I see your point stormcenter, but after this little cool down the SE and east are gonna begin to bake again. The ridge will be back to some degree and like JB said this is an ideal pattern for trouble in the gom. (I am not saying it will happen, but we do have some model supporting the idea of it)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thats okay I know the directions LOL

I want to go on that hurricane ride over and over..
I just wish they had a ride that shot out 100 mph
winds that would be so awesome.

I just need to feed my craving for some intense
experience- A Ride will do it cause a ride wont hurt
anybody

One time my friend was doing 90 on I4 and I rolled down
the window and felt 90 mph sustained- add to that a 20 mph
gusty cold front wind coming out of the other direction
and I had myself a category 2.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The stadium effect eye isn't common in tropical storms, no?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The stadium effect eye isn't common in tropical storms, no?

in a well organized cat 1 its possible...be nice to see someday LOL

[srainhoutx]

Eye in Hurricane Jerry (1989) was fairly healthy as it passed the upper reaches of Galveston Bay. At least had the oppurnity to experience one with a weak small sytem. Calm Clear Eye lasted a whole 10 minutes.

[jhamps10]

when is the 00z GFS supposed to come out?

[JonathanBelles]

its rolling now.