TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

What is it shown at, T3.0?

[cycloneye]

What is it shown at, T3.0?

The image that I posted is the dvorak one,not the T numbers. Earlier this afternoon yes 3.0

[Coredesat]

NHC forecaster Avila:
"...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN..."

Since when did the NHC expand their cone out 10+ days? He said "forecast" to remain out to sea. If he said "will likely" or "will probably" when that is one thing. However, Avila is on record forecasting Ingrid will make no landfalls throughout the entirety of its life. This might be an unprecedented forecast from the NHC in going out 10+ days on their track. The 5 day NHC track error is 300 miles so use the 10+ day forecast will extreme caution.

Please don't put words in the NHC forecasters' mouths. Check the model guidance and the official NHC forecast track.

[bvigal]

Here's a really good perspective, the big picture!
Be sure to turn on the forecast points.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-ft.html

[jacindc]

NHC forecaster Avila:
"...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN..."

Since when did the NHC expand their cone out 10+ days? He said "forecast" to remain out to sea. If he said "will likely" or "will probably" when that is one thing. However, Avila is on record forecasting Ingrid will make no landfalls throughout the entirety of its life. This might be an unprecedented forecast from the NHC in going out 10+ days on their track. The 5 day NHC track error is 300 miles so use the 10+ day forecast will extreme caution.

Please don't put words in the NHC forecasters' mouths. Check the model guidance and the official NHC forecast track.

He should have just included "through the forecast period." I do admit that "remain out to sea" hit my ear wrong as well, it does sound like he's saying it'll never ever ever come close to land.

[cycloneye]

14/2345 UTC 15.9N 51.0W T2.5/2.5 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

CrazyC83,T numbers down a little tonight.

[CrazyC83]

14/2345 UTC 15.9N 51.0W T2.5/2.5 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

CrazyC83,T numbers down a little tonight.

Once the 44 kt from the plane and 35 kt Dvorak estimates are blended, 40 kt seems correct now.

[canegrl04]

NHC forecaster Avila:
"...INGRID FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA AND WEAKEN..."

Since when did the NHC expand their cone out 10+ days? He said "forecast" to remain out to sea. If he said "will likely" or "will probably" when that is one thing. However, Avila is on record forecasting Ingrid will make no landfalls throughout the entirety of its life. This might be an unprecedented forecast from the NHC in going out 10+ days on their track. The 5 day NHC track error is 300 miles so use the 10+ day forecast will extreme caution.

Please don't put words in the NHC forecasters' mouths. Check the model guidance and the official NHC forecast track.

He should have just included "through the forecast period." I do admit that "remain out to sea" hit my ear wrong as well, it does sound like he's saying it'll never ever ever come close to land.

I think a ridge is suppose to push Ingrid westward at the end of the forecast period

[tolakram]

that line of clouds would be the leading edge of the SAL in all liklihood

Thanks Derek. Will this reach Ingrid and if so is it factored into any of the forecasts?

[jaxfladude]

So how much longer will Ingrid be around?
I ask since I get the feeling that this TS is all but going to be sheared away to nothing or back to a wave within a few days.......Next system please.......

[tolakram]

You can see the SAL line approaching from the east.

[gerrit]

So how much longer will Ingrid be around?
I ask since I get the feeling that this TS is all but going to be sheared away to nothing or back to a wave within a few days.......Next system please.......

Until the NHC issues the last advisory on future TD Ingrid.

[Derek Ortt]

models are backing off of the westward shift at the end of the forecast period tonight

[wzrgirl1]

models are backing off of the westward shift at the end of the forecast period tonight

good news thanks

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ingrid is now under 25 knots of shear based on cimss shear maps.

[storms in NC]

Just got home nothing new so good night TS Ingrid. You are going to need your rest for the fight of your life for the next few days.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The TUTT ULL is 10-15 degrees directly to the north of Ingrid...With the tutt centered Southwest ot northeast near 65-70 west, with the bottom or base forming the line of strongest shear near 55-60 west...So even if this where to move northwestward, this would have to go through 25-30 knot shear in that area. So slightly stronger then its dealing with now and more direct. Caribbean you can forget it, thats a million times worst.

Inside the Tutt shear levels are lower, but the ULL is expected to back westward even so. So don't expect it to become super favorable or anything. If anything expect it to only become slightly more favorable after 60-72 hours time frame. But hey the storm is holding up so far alright.

[cycloneye]

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1050 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Coredesat]

The storm looks quite sheared (well duh), and you can see just how strong the westerlies are by looking at the shear map:



Notice how tightly bunched the streamlines are over Ingrid. And of course, from here Ingrid will have to contend with a maze of ULLs and dry air.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL Forecast for ingrid:

24 hours- 40 mph heavy shear
48 hours- 35 mph heavy shear
72 hours- 30 mph very heavy shear
96 hours- tropical wave, 20 mph winds
120 hours- if ridge builds in some then it regenerates
into a 30 mph depression, Otherwise a Remnant Low,
15 mph winds

TUTT killed the ridge. Because more influence has been on the TUTT
my forecast of before for a major will NOT happen.

Yesterday I made that forecast of Major between heavy
classes and had no time to see the data promets posted-
which explains why I had no idea about what would weaken it.

Finally today on Friday after seeing the data (class load was less
today) I can see what's happening here.