TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

The models runs lets post them in the Global models thread.

[miamicanes177]

HWRF has been brutal this season.

I'd like to see it tried with different initial lateral and forecast boundary conditions than the GFS. When we were running MM5s in real time during RAINEX and Wilma at RSMAS, we had little success with the GFS fields, but had more with the CMC, GFDL, and NOGAPS (I couldn't even take the MM5-GFS that seriously and basically ignored it)

Yeh it's been brutal alright. It was only correctly showing a category 5 Dean landfall a week in advance while the NHC was only forecasting a cat 3. It did not perform well with Felix, but most of the models handled that one poorly. So for the two big boys it went 1/2 with perfection on Dean. I'll give it a pass on Felix and will choose to believe it's performance on Dean will be what we can expect in the future. I'll take it's brutal performance on Dean every single time.

[Derek Ortt]

our MM5s off of the GFS did not spin up the storms enough.

The MM5 off of the Canadian was the best at the genesis, while of course, off of the GFDL with the most realistic initial vortex was the best for intensity for well-developed storms.

John Cangialosi (now at NHC) presented these findings at the 2006 AMS trop met conference. not sure if this is the link to his recorded presentation or not, but is at leats the abstract

http://ams.confex.com/ams/htsearch.cgi? ... gAvailable

[stormcrow]

The site I go to for models uses animations (for those of us whose knowlege is limited) as 4 MM5 runs. (15a 15b 45a 45b). Where do these come from.

[mattpetre]

Ingrid is going to sleep for a while, but it is not over yet. I have no evidence other than what I see in visible, infrared, and water vapor... I just believe that this storm has fought long enough already that it will overcome the odds against it and will reform somewhere near the northern leewards. I'm probably wrong... there was a disturbance in the gulf I thought would form, but it did not come to pass... I lucked out on Humberto... but I really think Ingrid has fought hard enough that it will not simply go away... we shall see.

[wxmann_91]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

The HWRF forecasted sub-900 for Dean. Take it with a grain of salt.

[vbhoutex]

Ingrid is going to sleep for a while, but it is not over yet. I have no evidence other than what I see in visible, infrared, and water vapor... I just believe that this storm has fought long enough already that it will overcome the odds against it and will reform somewhere near the northern leewards. I'm probably wrong... there was a disturbance in the gulf I thought would form, but it did not come to pass... I lucked out on Humberto... but I really think Ingrid has fought hard enough that it will not simply go away... we shall see.

Why do you think this? Is it a thought that because of the "fight" Ingrid has done that there should be enough energy left to overcome the very obvious major difficulties that are beginning to be thrown at her as of this evening and expected to get worse for the next several days. Just trying to understand the thought process here. IMO, if the atmospheric parameters are hostile enough, it doesn't matter how hard a system has "fought" to "stay alive"-it will succumb to these parameters unless it is a strong system already and Ingrid is not even approaching a strong system at this point. As stated, it will be interesting to watch.

[Derek Ortt]

the runs on the FSU site come from FSU... ours were online but the link was kept secret until Wilma was about to make landfall

[SapphireSea]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

The HWRF forecasted sub-900 for Dean. Take it with a grain of salt.

The HWRF has a decent grasp of the situation in terms of intensity earlier in the cyclogenesis phase. As it was stated, in the longer gross analysis, HWRF has been outperformed by even DSHP I believe. Also I believe HWRF has not been tested well on a weakening and reintensifying cyclone it provided all sorts of dubious results with Rita and Katrina. Also, if I remember, I think according to the HWRF, Rita should have been the most powerful hurricane ever, for a run or two. It was correct as far as predicting RI, just not at how far.

[mattpetre]

My thinking is that what Ingrid has at the lower levels is substantial enough to hold together through some very significant shear at this point. I still believe that before Humberto was a boy, he already had some low level spin the day before... people kept pointing to the quikscat scans, but I looked at quikscat (what little covered the storm) on the day we all know it was nearing hurricane strength and it didn't really capture the windfield that accurately. I believe the shear is already having it's toll on Ingrid, but I also see an influx of upper level moisture accompanying some of that shear. I am not a pro nor would I ever claim to be one, just making my guesses and having fun reading posts at a relatively slow moment... When it comes to most of life I am a pretty deterministic person, and part of that deterministic thought process forces me to go against the grain... so be it... i don't mind being wrong and I know the pros have already stated all of the accepted synoptics, so I choose to fight the obvious a bit too much.

[artist]

latest-upper left in the image

[wxmann_91]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

The HWRF forecasted sub-900 for Dean. Take it with a grain of salt.

The HWRF has a decent grasp of the situation in terms of intensity earlier in the cyclogenesis phase. As it was stated, in the longer gross analysis, HWRF has been outperformed by even DSHP I believe. Also I believe HWRF has not been tested well on a weakening and reintensifying cyclone it provided all sorts of dubious results with Rita and Katrina. Also, if I remember, I think according to the HWRF, Rita should have been the most powerful hurricane ever, for a run or two. It was correct as far as predicting RI, just not at how far.

There was a graph showing how the HWRF stacked up against the GFDL when it was in its testing phase from 2005-06. The GFDL for the most part outperformed the HWRF.

[artist]

wxmann_91 - don't they tweak the models each year and so it could be doing differently than the last 2 years? I thought I had heard that.

[wxmann_91]

wxmann_91 - don't they tweak the models each year and so it could be doing differently than the last 2 years? I thought I had heard that.

Yeah, they do tweak the models each year. Still, both GFDL and HWRF have shown this year that they deepen storms too quickly and too much when the parent GFS model initializes the storm halfway ok, and too little when the parents GFS initializes the storm really badly. Right now I think the GFS has initialized this storm well enough so that the models will spuriously deepen this system despite 40 kt of westerly shear.

[fci]

This one looks destined to be a goner.
Unless the NHC and Pro Mets are all wrong and I seriously doubt that.

The official forecast which comes from the NHC is for Ingrid to weaken by 5kts to 30kts in 24 hours, but to maintain that intensity for the following 4 days. Dissipation is not, and has never been, forecast by the NHC. Pro met Derek Ortt's forecast is calling for this to be a 35kt tropical storm in 5 days. I'm not sure how you can say the NHC and pro mets are calling for this to be a goner.

From 11:00 Pm discussion:


From this afternoon's discussion:
"A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST
THROUGH FIVE DAYS"

I interpret that to be the thought that Ingrid will go away.
Just can't see the NHC officially saying the exact words that it would be a goner but the text above sure implies it to me.

wxman57:
[i]"There is one way that Ingrid could survive the shear. If it turns north then northeast and accelerates out to sea the relative shear will drop and convection won't be too far from[i]"THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN." the center. Otherwise, it's "barrel of the gun" or "dagger to the heart" as the NHC says"[/i][/i]

I'll interpret that as Ingrid is probably a goner.
Even IF not, far from what Accuweather shows which may be what some out there are hoping will happen.

So, I am taking the leap to interpret what I am reading to mean that the NHC and Pro Mets expect Ingrid to be a goner.
Just my interpretation and you certainly have the absolute right to disagree!

[cycloneye]

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Nimbus]

SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.

You can see that setting up in the water vapor imagery this morning with yet another ULL dropping down behind Ingrid.

There has been another burst of convection over Ingrid this morning and those seem to be enough to keep these small core systems spinning. After 4 days NHC said the mid level trough will turn her northwest on a fish track. That seems the most likely scenario unless the upper level pattern suddenly becomes more zonal.

[HURAKAN]

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Poor Ingrid!!

[HURAKAN]

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It almost hurts seeing reality unfold!!

[Thunder44]

From look at the visibles, it looks like shear is stronger than yesterday. It's more evident now with the high clouds coming in from the Carrbean Sea. I expect it will downgraded to a TD today.