Possible development to threaten SE coast during 9/18-24?

[LarryWx]

I predict that the slow moving Ingrid will be largely ignored once we get to about Mon. or Tue. because I expect attention to shift to the possibility of a homegrown system off the SE coast and/or that southern Caribbean system threatening to move northward in the direction of the Gulf/SE.

Regarding the potential SE system, models continue to favor whatever convection is now moving off the coast to halt its eastward movement near 70-5 W, stall, and start inching back toward the SE coast while possibly developing a low level circ. around midweek. This would be as a result of a favorable environment of an upper level high strengthening to the north, near stationary and strengthening surface high pressure to the north, and above average SST's for this time of year. Climo says to at least be wary about a setup like this at this time of year. I expect more and more attention will be paid to this in the days to come as I think convection will begin to stew off the SE coast. This reminds me somewhat of the Diana of 1984 setup. It remains to be seen if it will actually develop into a surface low off the SE coast.

Some models bring low pressure into the area from the south.

This new Euro spits out a whopping 3-5" of rain for the E coast of SC/GA/FL for the 8 day period starting Sun at 8 PM. Given the progged pattern, this is consistent with my idea that something tropical could form (or move to) near the SE coast. Ingrid is not a concern as of now and may easily never be one.

[skysummit]

Yea.....and this is why there's already 2 - 3 threads opened up on these areas.

[ronjon]

Good points Larrywx - I mentioned that synoptic setup a few days ago. So far, the models, other than a CMC run yesterday, are not showing much at the surface off the SE coast. I know there will deep trough sharpening off the east coast with a cut-off mid-to-upper low forming off the SE coast and progged to retrograde SW across the FL peninsula and into the GOM. The question is - does something form east of the ULL and follow it west? I think some of the models are starting to pick up on this by taking a piece of energy east of the ULL, moving it west across FL, and then beginning tropical development somewhere in the GOM (ex. 00Z GFS, UKMET). Complicating this scenario are lower pressures in the caribbean and something moving up north from the area west of JAM. Looks like a complex situation shaping up early-to-middle of next week. With all of the model development, looks like something will spin up either off the SE coast, eastern GOM, or western caribbean.

[skysummit]

Most of the NWS offices along the Gulf Coast are mentioning at least one of these possibilities. I'm starting to have no doubt that most attention will be turning toward the east coast, Caribbean, and Gulf next week.

That Caribbean setup is really catching my attention with the GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and EURO all showing something for a few runs in a row now....and now the NAM joins in.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather agrees with you.

[flwxwatcher]

I predict that the slow moving Ingrid will be largely ignored once we get to about Mon. or Tue. because I expect attention to shift to the possibility of a homegrown system off the SE coast and/or that southern Caribbean system threatening to move northward in the direction of the Gulf/SE.

Regarding the potential SE system, models continue to favor whatever convection is now moving off the coast to halt its eastward movement near 70-5 W, stall, and start inching back toward the SE coast while possibly developing a low level circ. around midweek. This would be as a result of a favorable environment of an upper level high strengthening to the north, near stationary and strengthening surface high pressure to the north, and above average SST's for this time of year. Climo says to at least be wary about a setup like this at this time of year. I expect more and more attention will be paid to this in the days to come as I think convection will begin to stew off the SE coast. This reminds me somewhat of the Diana of 1984 setup. It remains to be seen if it will actually develop into a surface low off the SE coast.

Some models bring low pressure into the area from the south.

This new Euro spits out a whopping 3-5" of rain for the E coast of SC/GA/FL for the 8 day period starting Sun at 8 PM. Given the progged pattern, this is consistent with my idea that something tropical could form (or move to) near the SE coast. Ingrid is not a concern as of now and may easily never be one.

Larrywx.. nice post and agreed. the pattern is such that you would expect something to form off the SE U.S. coast and or the Caribbean. It is going to take a few days probably to sort out all the details. I.E. were the mid level low cuts off, strength, movement of mid level low etc. so expect some different model solutions the next couple days. The bottom line is I would be really surprised if we didn't get something tropical forming next week off the SE U.S. Coast and or the Caribbean.. Should be a very interesting week ahead.

[JonathanBelles]

My local met mentioned a system off the coast of Florida.

[LarryWx]

I predict that the slow moving Ingrid will be largely ignored once we get to about Mon. or Tue. because I expect attention to shift to the possibility of a homegrown system off the SE coast and/or that southern Caribbean system threatening to move northward in the direction of the Gulf/SE.

Regarding the potential SE system, models continue to favor whatever convection is now moving off the coast to halt its eastward movement near 70-5 W, stall, and start inching back toward the SE coast while possibly developing a low level circ. around midweek. This would be as a result of a favorable environment of an upper level high strengthening to the north, near stationary and strengthening surface high pressure to the north, and above average SST's for this time of year. Climo says to at least be wary about a setup like this at this time of year. I expect more and more attention will be paid to this in the days to come as I think convection will begin to stew off the SE coast. This reminds me somewhat of the Diana of 1984 setup. It remains to be seen if it will actually develop into a surface low off the SE coast.

Some models bring low pressure into the area from the south.

This new Euro spits out a whopping 3-5" of rain for the E coast of SC/GA/FL for the 8 day period starting Sun at 8 PM. Given the progged pattern, this is consistent with my idea that something tropical could form (or move to) near the SE coast. Ingrid is not a concern as of now and may easily never be one.

Indeed, attention has shifted away from Ingrid and to off the SE coast today.

[Stephanie]

Another Gabrielle scenerio. HOPEFULLY, the SE and Mid Atlantic will benefit from this storm's rainfall.

[cpdaman]

so earlier people thought this thing was going to develop and head thru the central gulf , now people talking about carolina's /mid atlantic

i say florida should watch this one, high pressure building in combined with this storm not developing that far off the coast, slow movement

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html

se coast/ bahamas convection starting to unite and party

[Stephanie]

The High pressure to the north looks like it will push it further south than where Gabby landed. I'm just hoping that the moisture is picked up and brought into the GA - VA areas, AT LEAST.