TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest:



This is what expectations give you. So much was expected from 91L and most neglected 90L. And who won at the end?

"I" should of known the central Atlantic is NOT FAVORABLE for development this season. I knew once the super subtropical ridge broke down that the tutt would set up. But never would of thought a 1997 like westly shear would set up in the core of the season. Let me just say that if we get any more storms this season it will be the western caribbean or gulf of Mexico or maybe the western Atlantic above 25 north. I believe the cape verdes besides a possible sheared fish is over.

I will post saying I'm wrong, and I will eat crow, if another cane forms south of 20 north and east of 60 this season.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
Little burst of convection on the IR from Ingrid. That wave E of the Bahamas sure has flared up this morning and has a cyclonic spin to it.

[fci]

Anyone reminded of 2005's Irene?

Yes, that is what this is doing.

I don't think this is going away anytime soon. It should weaken to a TD, but I think this can sustain itself through the toughest times (it is about 1/3 the way through the high shear in my view). By Monday or Tuesday, I think Ingrid will ramp up again...

One thing to note: if the circulation dissipates and regenerates, I believe it is still named Ingrid.

Say goodnight nurse.

The only that will regenerate about Ingrid is its return to the list in 2013!!

[ConvergenceZone]

hehe, I didn't eat Crow on this one

Honestly, I didn't see how this had a chance based on what it's current strength was a day or two. It just wouldn't take much to tear it apart. I don't think there will be anything left to regenerate since it is actually falling apart faster than anticipated....

NEXT???

[gatorcane]

NO I'm actually still sticking with Ingrid....there is a vigorous LLC that is now being steered with the lower layer flow -- which is generally WNW...and notice how the NHC is starting to acknowlege the 500MB High that is forecasted to block recurvature of this system....by ever so slightly bending the track more to the west at the end of the forecast period -- I expect they will bend it more to the west agressively over the next day or so.

I still think as long as it maintains a vigorous LLC it will end up getting into an environment that is more favorable and underneath that 500MB high that should bend if off to the West and allow development.

You can see just how vigorous the LLC is here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Brent]

Goodbye Ingrid. NEXT!

Well the streak continues, guy names are the bad ones, girl names are forgettable.

Which has me concerned about Jerry...

[gatorcane]

Folks if Ingrid can just make it about 2-3 more days she should be in a more favorable environment for development. Take a look at why I say that here:

[huricanwatcher]

Goodbye Ingrid. NEXT!

Well the streak continues, guy names are the bad ones, girl names are forgettable.

Which has me concerned about Jerry...

Jerry - can be a guy or a girl, so does that make it twice as bad?

[RL3AO]

Goodbye Ingrid. NEXT!

Well the streak continues, guy names are the bad ones, girl names are forgettable.

Which has me concerned about Jerry...

Jerry - can be a guy or a girl, so does that make it twice as bad?

But in this case its a guy name.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wzrgirl1]

not looking bad at all!!! Still has another day at least with shear though.

[Blown Away]

not looking bad at all!!! Still has another day at least with shear though.

I agree, doesn't look as bad as everybody thought. It still has a tight LLC w/ some convection. Also notice on the WV the TUTT is not advancing to the SW anymore. My eyes keep getting drawn to the wave E of the Bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still forming convection over the LLC, and with in 50-80 miles of deep convection. That is not what I would kill storm killing yet. In fact the shear has stopped rising and even has started decreasing southwest of this system at 5 knots. Things are slowly going to become better over the next day...As the ULL weakens slowly and the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

Looks as good if not better then Gabby for most of her life. And better then Barry.

[gatorcane]

Still forming convection over the LLC, and with in 50-80 miles of deep convection. That is not what I would kill storm killing yet. In fact the shear has stopped rising and even has started decreasing southwest of this system at 5 knots. Things are slowly going to become better over the next day...As the ULL weakens slowly and the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

Looks as good if not better then Gabby for most of her life. And better then Barry.

I agree why are people burying this thing and thinking it is dead. It looks better than alot sheared storms we have tracked and those ULL winds are going to decrease significantly in about 2-3 days and then watch out.

I still have to go back to the Andrew/Katrina analogy. The NHC was also virtually writing them off in the open Atlantic and then they both seized the opportunity and developed significantly while getting under a deep Atlantic ridge. Both storms were moving nearly NW or NNW at some point and the turned and moved W to WSW -- not that I forecast another Andrew/Katrina.

This is no difference here once it passes that swath of strong Westerly shear. The 500MB high is looming and should show up in about 4-5 days preventing recurvature.

[Derek Ortt]

the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.

Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or else it will likely reintensify

[gatorcane]

the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.

Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or els it will likely reintensify

Thank you Derek that is quicker than I thought.

But where is everybody? If it did intensify quickly it would move off more to the NW right? Because currently she is moving with the low-level flow right towards the northern Leeward islands. I'm surprised no Watches or Warnings would be issued just in case.

and I am surprised the NHC is putting so much faith into model shear forecasts given if is Sept. 15th and not June/July

[OURAGAN]

I agree, the shear is already decreasing.

[gatorcane]

Latest: A VERY well-defined system at the low-levels, symmetric but still under that shear but is forecast to decrease tonight and into tomorrow now. That should warrant a big change to the forecast should it verify:

[Blown Away]

Let's assume Ingrid holds on. How does that wave E of the Bahamas factor in the track of Ingrid?

[rainydaze]

I am much more of a student than teacher, but I noticed that after convection waned a bit on Ingrid due to shear, a blob of thunderstorms recently popped back up. I don't think it's ready to dissapate yet. The enthusiast in me wants to see Ingrid fight the shear and develop, but the homeowner in me is screaming for her to die....lol