Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#181 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:19 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z UKMET......wants to take into LA...didnt know if that had been posted yet..sorry if it has...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
I don't like the motion of that. It is heading WNW toward the TX/LA border area and would mean more problems for the places just hit by Humberto. Luckily though, these long range model runs are not to be taken too seriously until a system actually forms.
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AL Chili Pepper
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#182 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:26 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z UKMET......wants to take into LA...didnt know if that had been posted yet..sorry if it has...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


I'm not sure if that system in the UKMet is the same one the other models show developing in the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#183 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:37 pm

12z EURO

Here is the last model that was left of the 12z run.The gulf is with the L.
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#184 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:11 pm

Looks to be moving over land.
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Vortex
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#185 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:23 pm

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Re:

#186 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:26 pm



starts to develop it tomorrow or early monday.
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#187 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:28 pm

The only possible thing that could be is the current weak Caribbean wave taking up the Low center from that Panama convection and developing it.
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#188 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:28 pm

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Re:

#189 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:31 pm

Vortex wrote:Nam 48 hr Intensifying...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif


has the s look on it. Looks like a TS at that time.
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#190 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:32 pm

Upper air pattern looks very favorable for intensification!! Also think this gets as far north as cuba/Fl keys(at the most) and then bends WNW towards central west gulf unless weakness over and jst east of fL is very strong..Either way we should begin to see things evolve overnight tonight and get underway sunday
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#191 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:33 pm

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Re:

#192 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:34 pm

Vortex wrote:Upper air pattern looks very favorable for intensification!! Also think this gets as far north as cuba/Fl keys(at the most) and then bends WNW towards central west gulf unless weakness over and jst east of fL is very strong..Either way we should begin to see things evolve overnight tonight and get underway sunday


Vortex, now I know that this is nearly impossible to figure out this far out, but in your opinion what areas have the best shot right now at seeing this?
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#193 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:35 pm

This should be official invest 93L very soon
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Re: Models jumping on SW Carib

#194 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:38 pm

I wonder if that cloud in the SW Caribbean will go up to GOM later next week. Been hearing about it a lot.
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#195 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:39 pm

very tough call...very heavy rainfall potential for Cuba,fl Keys and southern Florida..The key is the evoloution and strength of the weakness over and east of florida..Either way this has the potential to become a large and strong cyclone..
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#196 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:39 pm

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Re:

#197 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:42 pm

Vortex wrote:H+60 continues to intensify



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif


Crap! :eek: Looks like a hurricane headed for the GOM.We shall see next week
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#198 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:44 pm

this will likely bend back more west...Not sure if it makes it to Cuba or even the Fl Keys first but this could become a significant LA/TX threat...
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#199 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:45 pm

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#200 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 3:47 pm

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