Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS Discussion today:

.LONG TERM UPDATE...INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 12Z GFS BY LATE
THIS COMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
HINTED...FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...A SYSTEM...PERHAPS
TROPICAL IN NATURE...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN AS THE SYSTEM HASN`T EVEN FORMED
YET. MOREOVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 7 TO 9 DAY MODEL
FORECAST...WHICH IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...IT BEARS
WATCHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

[canegrl04]

With Humbert o going from zip to hurricane in less than 24 hours,I believe anything that forms in the Gulf less than 800 hundred miles from land can become a major .Next week will be quite an interesting one

[Vortex]

18Z GFS Rolling In...

[Vortex]

H+24 low develops near 11N/78W

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[Vortex]

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

H+48 slower solution so far han 12z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[ronjon]

It's interesting that the 18Z NAM and todays 12Z CMC, granted not spectacular tropical genesis models, form something east of FL in addition to the western caribbean development. Just to add more to an enigma wrapped in a riddle, what if two systems formed - one east of FL and one in the western caribbean? Sound too strange to be true? Ok, anyway back to my amateur forecasting analysis - it's clear that the deepening trough off the east coast of FL will seriously weaken the 500 mb ridge - this will not be a Dean or Felix situation. A cutoff ULL will then retrograde SW eventually into the GOM - how strong this ULL is and how far west does it migrate by the time the western caribbean tropical disturbance moves north into the Yuc Straits are questions that probably won't be resolved for a couple of days yet - maybe even later. If the system develops in the western caribbean - it will be a much more difficult forecast than Dean or Felix with maybe the future track of a major hurricane in some doubt.

[Vortex]

H+60 500 mb pattern..weakness begins to develop to the north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

[ROCK]

78hr......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml


helping you out some Vortex....

[Vortex]

H+78 moving north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs is much much weaker then the Nam. In the nam is not that good of a model, so chances of development maybe not as high as I thought.

[Vortex]

H+78 500mb cutoff low seen over FL a very important player down the road


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[LarryWx]

It's interesting that the 18Z NAM and todays 12Z CMC, granted not spectacular tropical genesis models, form something east of FL in addition to the western caribbean development. Just to add more to an enigma wrapped in a riddle, what if two systems formed - one east of FL and one in the western caribbean?

My amateur take is that the two would be competing for energy. Therefore, I'm thinking that
the weaker one low, the stronger the other.

[Vortex]

H+90 move of NW motion

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[skysummit]

The Gfs is much much weaker then the Nam. In the nam is not that good of a model, so chances of development maybe not as high as I thought.

What, just b/c the GFS isn't showing anything strong? heck...remember how weak the GFS showed both Dean and Felix while they were Cat 5's.

[ROCK]

The Gfs is much much weaker then the Nam. In the nam is not that good of a model, so chances of development maybe not as high as I thought.

What, just b/c the GFS isn't showing anything strong? heck...remember how weak the GFS showed both Dean and Felix while they were Cat 5's.

so true....

[Vortex]

H+90 500 mb ULL over eastern gulf..weakness over FL and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

[Vortex]

better to use GFS for pattern recognition NOT intensity

[Vortex]

H+102

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[Vortex]

H+102 500MB

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif