TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[RL3AO]

I hate when people write articles like these.

http://www.dbtechno.com/science/2007/09/14/tropical-storm-ingrid-develops-in-atlantic/

Look at the link from the image. It is named Tropical_Storm_Ingrid.jpg

[CrazyC83]

You have to admit one thing. She refuses to die considering she has been in a brutal environment for well over 24 hours now...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

22-23 knot shear, shear based on cimss charts has decreased 4 knots in this area. 5 knots just west.

[RL3AO]

Remember with Dean when the NHC (and most making forecasts) had the system turning WNW 12 hours after their forecast. And they kept waiting and waiting until they finally decided that it won't turn WNW. I wonder if we could have a similar thing here with Ingrid. The NHC keeps waiting for the NW turn and it doesn't happen.

[bwhorton2007]

IF and i say IF again,this trend Matt is talking about continues we may have a problem on our hands sooner rather than later.

[MGC]

Earlier in the day, Ingrid looked like a spiral galaxy with supernova stars in the arms. Ingrid does has a excellent circulation. Still have my doubts, but as long as some convection keeps firing it will have a chance to survive the shear. Last visible sat loop showed Ingrid heading on a track just north of west. Possibility the northern islands could feel Ingrid in a couple of days....MGC

[artist]

this is interesting from the latest advisory -

...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

[wxman57]

I don't see much letup in the shear for the next few days. Not until Thursday does the GFS indicate the center (if it's still around) might get across the jet around the TUTT and move into a lower shear zone north of 25N. More than likely it'll dissipate before then. In any case, it might only "threaten" Bermuda should it survive.

[miamicanes177]

I don't see much letup in the shear for the next few days. Not until Thursday does the GFS indicate the center (if it's still around) might get across the jet around the TUTT and move into a lower shear zone north of 25N. More than likely it'll dissipate before then. In any case, it might only "threaten" Bermuda should it survive.

the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.

Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or else it will likely reintensify

I agree with Derek Ortt on this. As Derek correctly stated, conditions might improve as early as sunday. If it survives through sunday, watch out.

[bwhorton2007]

Miamicanes177,i second your opinion.I believe Derek might make the call.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

It's impressive and pretty amazing that the shear is not affecting the circulation itself. Look how the convection is blown off but the bands remain pretty tight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is because the cirulation is at 850(5,000 feet)millibars or closer to the surface, while upper level shear is normally higher then 500 millibars or close to 18,000 feet. So you have the shear kicking the convection off, but has nothing to do with the LLC.

[gerrit]

:D

Who's birthday are you cheering for?

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
I have a question is Ingrid's center between those two balls of convection.

[ExBailbonds]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
I have a question is Ingrid's center between those two balls of convection.

Yes smack in the middle. Look at the visable loop you will see it in all but the last frame or two it losses it cause we lost the sunlight.

[bwhorton2007]

Matt you just laid it all down on why i haven't given up on ingrid,this shear is for the most part above the circulation. at high upper levels
if this had been a major hurricane i would have said party over at the beginning because of the shearing but it is a much weaker system and that is
giving it a continued chance at a major spinnup once it clears the low. and it is sliding under the shear for the most part.

[Ixolib]

I hate when people write articles like these.

http://www.dbtechno.com/science/2007/09/14/tropical-storm-ingrid-develops-in-atlantic/

Look at the link from the image. It is named Tropical_Storm_Ingrid.jpg

Good Catch!! Is that Ivan or Katrina? As you so well pointed out, it's obviously NOT Ingrid...

[storms in NC]

There's two features out there. The TUTT is down ahead of it to the west covering the Caribbean and west Atlantic. It is being turbo charged by the ULL that is drawing flow off the TUTT and enhancing the shear. This is a storm killer synoptic as WX57 pointed out. Not to mention Ingrid's swirl is headed for the area that vaporized 92L.

I'd like to take a break and come back monday, but I'm afraid I'll miss something develop.

I think I will take a break and come back Wed. Then see how thing are going.

( But you know I am going to peak.)

[punkyg]

So wheres that ULL yall was talking about last night.
It looks like the TUTT is still moving north is that what you call it a TUTT or a huge ULL.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The tutt is a string of ULL's that have high levels of shear on there bases. They occur at 200-300 millibars where they are strongest...Its something like that.

The ULL is moving slowly northward...In which case turns the shear out from the west to now more southwest.