Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[punkyg]

I see what the nam is developing in the carribean, but what that to the east of florida.

[skysummit]

Ivanhater, you should have posted the pics of the end of the runs because both the NOGAPS and GFS showed the ridge building and pushing the storm west prior to hitting Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

While Texas isn't 100% safe, this point out, IIRC, in last 65 years, Rita, a near miss, but with hurricane conditions in Texas, a 1949 storm on October 3rd, a strong Cat 2 or lower Cat 3 near Freeport, and an October 1989 barely Cat 1 Jerry into Galveston the same weekend Peter Gardere and the Cash brothers broke the OU winning streak, starting a Texas winning streak against the Sooners, from mid-September on.


In the last 60 years.

Note, just 4 years back, Lili was an October storm about 70 miles East of the Texas line.

So, theoretically, climatology says it isn't impossible, but darned unlikely for a Cat 1 or higher to hit Texas from this point on.



Compare and contrast, 1985, IIRC, borderline Cat2/Cat3, November, Hurricane Kate into the Florida Panhandle. More recently, Opal and Wilma come to mind.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, you should have posted the pics of the end of the runs because both the NOGAPS and GFS showed the ridge building and pushing the storm west prior to hitting Florida.

Well, the images I posted was the time I am getting slammed being a little biased but your right...they take it across the north gulf coast and destroy everything from the panhandle to Louisiana:eek:

[skysummit]

Ivanhater, you should have posted the pics of the end of the runs because both the NOGAPS and GFS showed the ridge building and pushing the storm west prior to hitting Florida.

Well, the images I posted was the time I am getting slammed being a little biased but your right...they take it across the north gulf coast and destroy everything from the panhandle to Louisiana:eek:

LOL...could you imagine that devistation. That would be monumental. I'll watch the 00z GFS tonight, but I doubt I'll stay up for the EURO.

[jhamps10]

Ivanhater, you should have posted the pics of the end of the runs because both the NOGAPS and GFS showed the ridge building and pushing the storm west prior to hitting Florida.

Well, the images I posted was the time I am getting slammed being a little biased but your right...they take it across the north gulf coast and destroy everything from the panhandle to Louisiana:eek:

LOL...could you imagine that devistation. That would be monumental. I'll watch the 00z GFS tonight, but I doubt I'll stay up for the EURO.

yeah same here, I can't stay up for the euro, but I'll stay up for the GFS run, and watch the satellite till say midnight or 12:30 to see if we have any signs of possible organization. I doubt it will come tonight, but I think tonight will start the building blocks for something to develop, I think tomorrow and more so on monday will be big days to rather we see this or not.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, you should have posted the pics of the end of the runs because both the NOGAPS and GFS showed the ridge building and pushing the storm west prior to hitting Florida.

Well, the images I posted was the time I am getting slammed being a little biased but your right...they take it across the north gulf coast and destroy everything from the panhandle to Louisiana:eek:

LOL...could you imagine that devistation. That would be monumental. I'll watch the 00z GFS tonight, but I doubt I'll stay up for the EURO.

Yeah...it is just crazy more than 1 model have that solution..tonights models will be interesting as well...this is not that far into the future either

[southerngale]

Ed, Rita didn't miss Texas. Trust me... Rita was here. I still see the effects of Rita daily.

Btw, look closely. While the center did come across first at the part where Louisiana kinda sticks out "under" Texas, can you seriously call that a near miss for Texas? It hit and affected BOTH states.

Sorry, but it just annoys me when I hear that. I lived through Rita... I wish it had missed us.

Think about it... if we were devastated by another hurricane that hit where Rita hit, 99.9% of the people dealing with it aren't going to care where the eye first crossed anyway... it won't change what just happened to their lives.




Ok, back to these model runs. I will feel a lot better for Texas when September is over. I felt "fairly" safe before Rita, thinking it was most likely too late for Texas, then she came along and changed that way of thinking. A lot of people around here are nervous. Then Humberto rapidly formed and hit us.... a lot of people are on edge, but at least more people are aware and paying more attention than they used to.

[cycloneye]

Look what is emerging from Colombia.That may be the trigger when it combines with a wave that is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea

[jhamps10]

Look what is emerging from Colombia.That may be the trigger when it combines with a wave that is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea

yeah that has really blown up tonight, and that matches very well with other pro mets, and what the models show.

[ROCK]

Well said Southgale...I have been to the golden triangle on business last month (we have a few banks down there) and still I noticed many blue tarps on every other roof. Damage, I thought would be repaired by now. I am sure Humberto did not help things...Very sad and hit home in some respects. I feel for you guys/ gals down there.

In Ed's defense ( I study law for awhile ) I think he was meaning Houston / Galveston area since he is from Houston.

I have to agree, Ed..Climo suggests TX is safe in late Sept. Climo also suggested Dean / Felix would move north. Just because there in no presedence set does not mean it can't be set now. Climo is history, history is made in the present.....

[skysummit]

[jhamps10]

all right boys, 00z runs starting with nam just starting,

[Vortex]

NAM 00Z rolling in....

H+30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[Vortex]

h+36 a little stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[jhamps10]

h+36 a little stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

indeed, also looks a bit east of the 18z run.

[Vortex]

H+48

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

Upper air pattern looks to become very favorable...

[Vortex]

H+54 stronger...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60 moving generally north into the weakness across FL for now..Also, Upper air pattern and environmental conditions look to support a very strong system..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif