Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[crownweather]

Thought I'd post this link, it is the 5 day TC favorable/unfavorable environment forecast based on the GFS model. Looks like things could be favorable all the way up into the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev120.gif

[attallaman]

Thought I'd post this link, it is the 5 day TC favorable/unfavorable environment forecast based on the GFS model. Looks like things could be favorable all the way up into the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev120.gif

If you wouldn't mind for those like myself who don't know much about these kind of maps; what exactly am I looking at here?

[crownweather]

If you wouldn't mind for those like myself who don't know much about these kind of maps; what exactly am I looking at here?

Basically the areas shaded in the aqua blue color are favorable for tropical cyclone genesis and development, while the non-shaded areas are unfavorable.

[cycloneye]

Here is a floater image of the latest from that area.

[Steve]

Still interested by 2 impending Korea hits with recurves around the back side of Japan. If I remember teleconnection 101, that would seem to indicate 2 Florida hits, possibly the second one (the one by Seoul) hitting much farther up the coast or the Panhandle. This teleconnection shows ridging poking into Japan which is why the storms hit Korea. But I still think it teleconnects to a transient trough or weaker high pressure (assuming the storms go as predicted).

Nari basically comes right out of the south while the second storm, Wipha almost hits Shanghai.

Just something to watch. Now I'm going back to sleep for another 5 hours.

Steve

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 12:45 UTC

[Portastorm]

There's certainly nothing down in the southern Caribbean this morning to get excited about. Looks like a bunch of divergence-driven convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In cycloneye's image we can see the tropical
wave interacting with the monsoon trough
producing convection.

[jlauderdal]

Still interested by 2 impending Korea hits with recurves around the back side of Japan. If I remember teleconnection 101, that would seem to indicate 2 Florida hits, possibly the second one (the one by Seoul) hitting much farther up the coast or the Panhandle. This teleconnection shows ridging poking into Japan which is why the storms hit Korea. But I still think it teleconnects to a transient trough or weaker high pressure (assuming the storms go as predicted).

Nari basically comes right out of the south while the second storm, Wipha almost hits Shanghai.

Just something to watch. Now I'm going back to sleep for another 5 hours.

Steve

stop it with the florida hits. back to sleep for another 5 hours, lol.

[tropicsgal05]

When do the new model runs for today come out?

[jhamps10]

Tropical weather discussion from NHC:

SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
HAITI/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
14N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W NEAR WESTERN CUBA

also, does anyone have the euro run from last night? I didn't stay up to look at it, and I don't see it posted.

[Vortex]

12 Z NAM H+72

Continues to develop and move North...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting Mobile, AL AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT): HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM
THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE DRY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKING TO AVERAGE 86 TO 88 MOST AREAS. LATEST
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS...1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE. WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH SLIPPING NORTHEAST...WOULD
EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO DIMINISH TODAY TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS...SIMILAR TO THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS...WILL HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AROUND 10 MPH IN THE GRIDDED PACKAGE
TODAY...GOING LIGHT TONIGHT. /10

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY): ALL OF THE KEY NUMERICAL
MODELS TYPICALLY USED FOR EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTING CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY SEEN DRIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION) MOVING DOWN THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY...THEN DIVING SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA TONIGHT
AND DEEPENING INTO A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY. THAT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULFMEX TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE-WISE AND THE FASTEST WITH
THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. WE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND START INTRODUCING SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
(DESTIN AREA) WEDNESDAY (SORT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND
THE SLOWER ECMWF). WE BRING THE POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF HINTED AT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING UP OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUN WAS
WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND KEEPS ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN GULFMEX THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PLAYERS (THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST)...EXCEPT WEAKER WITH ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FORMING UP
UNDER THE GULF UPPER LOW. SO...WE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT IN THE FACT
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE VARIOUS EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IS TO BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE BACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW OVER THE GULF SLIDES WESTWARD TOWARDS
TEXAS. STAY TUNED. /05

[Vortex]

H+78

Appears to be a complicated pattern setting up. Various solutions possible....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

H+84 continues north...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

0z EURO is still showing something off the Texas coast next Sat/Sun, though it's not near as aggressive compared to previous runs.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see anything significant coming from the SW Caribbean

That UL does not look as if it will go anywhere in time for development to occur (other than a badly sheared weak TD/TS). That the models are backing off of the outlandish predictions of the last 2 days is not much of a surprise to me

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 161508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...THEY COULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[RL3AO]

I think the TWO is talking about a different system.

[cycloneye]

From that wave combined with the energy in the SW Caribbean will be the trigger.