TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Ptarmigan]

if it's 3-4 days... this thing is a goner... even to Monday is going to be tough

If that's the case, this would be the first "I" storm not to become a hurricane since 1988.

[Recurve]

Well, the NHC now has "DISSIPATING" in the official forecast, so along with everbody else, tells me it's not going to make it.

121 pages here on our TS for almost 2 days.

What's next? Possible Bahamas development from a ULL working down in an area of low shear....?

This is the start of fall in weather in NA I'd say, while the tropics have two more months of summer.

[Sanibel]

Badly sheared yet still retains cold tops = energy.


True. I was thinking it could be shear enhanced.

[wxmann_91]

Badly sheared yet still retains cold tops = energy.

No, it just means UL divergence. Once that upper divergence is gone, this is gone too.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



As of now, far from death!

[Air Force Met]

Badly sheared yet still retains cold tops = energy.

No, it just means UL divergence. Once that upper divergence is gone, this is gone too.

Exactly. You have some convergence at the sfc on the backside of the low (where it is supposed to be) and a lot of divergence associated with the shear. If the divergence aloft wasn't there...there would be no deep convection.

[gatorcane]

Ingrid is precariously flirting with death but still could hold on for a couple of more days (and that is it) and as I said the NHC would have to (reluctantly) shift the track left. Since Ingrid will be a shallow feature, at least for the next 3 days or so, she is bound to move with the low-level trades which would take her on the track the shallow BAMS predict.

Considering the amount of convection she is generating given the amount of shear in addition to the vigorous LLC she is still retaining, albeit the convection is proportionately displaced far east of the LLC, she is still a player and I still am calling for her to regenerate in about 2-3 days as she moves WNW just above the Leeward islands.

[Air Force Met]

Latest:



As of now, far from death!

It's closer than you think when you consider the LLC is about 120 miles west of that deep convection...

[jaxfladude]

Captain Kirk: "Is she dead yet?"
Doctor 'Bones': "I'm a doctor not a TUTT!"

[gatorcane]

no she is not dead. In fact take a look at this IR loop. You can see a major burst of convection east of the LLC but look carefully and you can still see the vigorous spin with her as she is moving W to WNW tonight with the low-level flow.

Tomorrow when we get visible shots, we can see just how in tact her LLC is but as of now she is not dead. She is about 400 miles ESE or so from getting into an area with only 5K Winds aloft which would allow her to quickly ramp up should she still be generating convection as she is now. If she is moving 10 mph or so that is 400/10 = 40 hours or so from getting into a more favorable environment. Lets say appx 2 days away from more favorable conditions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Wind shear tendency continuing to show favorable conditions ahead of Ingrid in about 2 days or so:

[Air Force Met]

Tomorrow when we get visible shots, we can see just how in tact her LLC is but as of now she is not dead. She is about 275 miles ESE or so from getting into an area with only 5K Winds aloft which would allow her to quickly ramp up should she still be generating convection as she is now. If she is moving 10 mph or so that is 500/10 = 71 hours or so from getting into a more favorable environment.

She's not dead yet...and she might make it...but I'm not sure what you are looking at to prog your shear. 275 miles to the WNW...at 10 mph is 27 hours...and the winds in that area in 27 hours are still 20 knots from the WNW...plus its moving at 10...so that is over 30 knots of shear. 500 miles away at 48 hours puts it very close to the low...if it goes NW...and so the shear is down to 10-15 knots...but if it goes more WNW...then the winds are 35 knots from the west (north of PR) in 48 hours.

So yeah...right now the winds are 5 knots in that area...but they won't be in 48 hours...they will be 15-35 knots depending on how far north she goes in her track. The further north she goes the better off she will be. IF she continues tracking WNW...she will be in a dagger of death with 35 knots from the west.

You have to prog the winds out...they are not static...and progging them out along the projected track or a track that is WNW still gives a shear solution for the next 3-4 days.

[Air Force Met]

Wind shear tendency continuing to show favorable conditions ahead of Ingrid in about 2 days or so:

Again I hate to bust your chops...but that chart shows what has happened...not the forecast. The reason THAT area is low in shear is because THAT is where the center of the upper low is!

The center of upper lows are not the best areas for tropical development.

[Recurve]

You learn something every day.

[Typhoon_Willie]

5:00 am discussion on Ingrid...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 160837
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES
HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT
TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 56.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 58.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 19.1N 60.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.0N 61.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 64.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


So lets see if Ingrid hangs on! If she does then things might and I repeat might get interesting again.

[wavegazer]

how wide is the circulation
Winds in Barbados are NNW 5KT

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007
AT 500 AM AST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0
NORTH...56.8 WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. BASED ON THE LATEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST... INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE
MORE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PASS NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN
FURTHER WEAKEN THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[punkyg]

So hows the shear over Ingrid.
and is the center under the convection.
oh and where did that ball of convection north of Ingrid come from.

[Gustywind]

16/0600 UTC 16.9N 56.5W T2.0/2.5 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

The Latest



Still hanging on and creeping closer to the northern islands.