GOM concerns late next week?

[Ptarmigan]

Once the trough lifts out the GOM is open for business. Must not forget Rita on the 23 and 24 of Sept.

Rita formed on September 18, 2005.

[Sanibel]

A tiny convection dot formed over Humberto's extremely weak remnants.

[southerngale]

Here's what some Gulf Coast AFD's are saying about the possibility of development.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
244 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 00Z MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL RUNS (ECMWF, GFS, CANADIAN, NOGAPS) STILL SHOWING SOME
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF...WITH MOST SHOWING W/NW GULF BEING
THE FAVORED LOCATION. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HASN`T BEEN SUPERB JUST
YET. WILL THROW IN SOME LOW END CHC POPS IN THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START OUT WITH RIGHT NOW... 47







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
307 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS BOTH SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PROGS VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER
THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR. STILL TOO UNCERTAIN
TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
IN THE COMING DAYS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE 20% POPS FOR SAT
TO AT LEAST ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVE.






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THINGS START TO GET MURKY AT
THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENTIATION. ALL MODELS...EXCEPT CANADIAN
FOR A CHANGE...DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIB AND MOVE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD. NAM BRINGS THE LOW N AND GFS...AMONG OTHERS...SLIDES SYS
-TEM NW INTO THE GULF. AS OF NOW...TAFB DOES NOT EVEN ANALYZE A LOW
IN THE SW CARIB. MEX GUIDANCE REALLY UPS THE POPS MIDWEEK AND THAT
IS A POSSIBILITY IF GFS RIGHT AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD PULL
COPIUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER S FLA. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN
TOWARD GFS BUT NO ONE SHOULD HANG THE FORECAST HAT ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO UNTIL SOMETHING DEVELOPS...IF AT ALL.






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR.
ULTIMATELY MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
STRONG THIS SYSTEM BECOMES AND WHERE IT TRACKS. FORECAST TRENDS
SHOW INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS BY
MID WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY TRACK SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. POPS
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUT
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST ATTM. EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY
BE MORE DISTURBED THAN AVERAGE. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS BOTH A MID AND UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BASIN...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
DETAILS REMAINS HIGH...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEPEND ON THE
NATURE AND EXTENT OF MIDLATITUDE AND TROPICAL INTERACTION






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

MANY OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SURFACE
REFLECTION DEVELOPING WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THOUGH KEEPING IT A
COLD CORE SYSTEM. WHAT MANY ALSO DO IS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OF VARYING DEGREES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND PULL IT NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. THE SCENARIOS WITH THIS UPPER LOW AND ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL FEATURE HAVE CHANGED QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Sjones]

Thanks for posting that Southerngale....Looks like all of us in SE Tx need to keep our eyes and ears open next weekend.

[duris]

From New Orleans AFD this AM:

USER BEWARE...TRYING TO FORECAST POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS
BEYOND 5 DAYS IS VERY DIFFICULT WITHOUT ALREADY HAVING A NAMED
SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH/WEAK LOW PINCHING OFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...THEN GETTING
CAUGHT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS CAUSES THE 500 MB LOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AROUND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LATEST 00Z/16
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW
WILL FORM CLOSE TO THE 500 MB CENTER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. HISTORICALLY...THE
TRANSITION FROM A COLD CORE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL ONE TAKES A FEW
DAYS. WE ONLY HAVE TO LOOK BACK TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS THERE SHOULD BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SCENARIO VERY SIMILAR TO HUMBERTO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OFF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST RIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ONSHORE LATE ON DAY 8 OR 9 (SUNDAY/MONDAY
23RD-24TH). ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...THE RELIABILITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FORECAST A TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS NOT
VERY GOOD.

[Sjones]

Just for entertainment purposes, does anyone have any premonitions for the Tx Coast for the remainder of the season?

[sunny]

Just for entertainment purposes, does anyone have any premonitions for the Tx Coast for the remainder of the season?

That would be fun?

[A1A]

southerngale, do you have links for these local forecasts? I can't seem to find them when I google around. Thanks.

[cheezyWXguy]

southerngale, do you have links for these local forecasts? I can't seem to find them when I google around. Thanks.

go to noaa.gov or wunderground.com
Then just type in a city and down at the bottom of the forecast page, there will be a link that says "AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just curious? Why are some mentioning the development of the ull coming across Florida and not the deep sw carib systme, and others are doing the exact oppposite talking about the sw carib system and not the ull. Are models showing 2 systems in the gulf next week?

[skysummit]

Just curious? Why are some mentioning the development of the ull coming across Florida and not the deep sw carib systme, and others are doing the exact oppposite talking about the sw carib system and not the ull. Are models showing 2 systems in the gulf next week?

I'm a little confused also. Models are agreeing on a Gulf system, but the origin is a little confusing. Some are developing the southern Caribbean, while some are developing an ULL going warm core. Another one is doing both.

[jlauderdal]

Just for entertainment purposes, does anyone have any premonitions for the Tx Coast for the remainder of the season?

closed for business

[skysummit]

Just for entertainment purposes, does anyone have any premonitions for the Tx Coast for the remainder of the season?

closed for business

Is that why the reliable EURO is strengthening the ridge across Florida and pushing everything west toward Texas???

[canegrl04]

Just curious? Why are some mentioning the development of the ull coming across Florida and not the deep sw carib systme, and others are doing the exact oppposite talking about the sw carib system and not the ull. Are models showing 2 systems in the gulf next week?

I'm a little confused also. Models are agreeing on a Gulf system, but the origin is a little confusing. Some are developing the southern Caribbean, while some are developing an ULL going warm core. Another one is doing both.

This morning Dr. Lyons siad the two will merge when the SW system gets pulled North this week

[njweather]

Great post southerngale.

The NWS discussions seem to have reached a consensus... Tropical development in the Gulf is a real possibility this week.

[Zardoz]

Once the trough lifts out the GOM is open for business. Must not forget Rita on the 23 and 24 of Sept.

Rita formed on September 18, 2005.

Close enough:

[beachbum_al]

The remaining of the season has been canceled for the Gulf Coast States

(Just kidding)

Oh I wish we would make it the rest of the season without a storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Jeff Master's blog this morning...

Gulf of Mexico storm possible this week
The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we'll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week's end. A few possibilities, from this morning's model runs:

NOGAPS: A tropical storm forms in the Western Caribbean Tuesday, and moves north, hitting South Florida Friday.

UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS: A tropical storm forms in the central Gulf of Mexico Thursday and moves west, hitting Texas on Saturday.

The seed for formation of a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean would be one of the tropical waves from Africa that are parading across the Atlantic. A Gulf of Mexico storm could get spawned from a tropical wave, or from an old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas southwards along the U.S. East Coast then across northern Florida.

[baygirl_1]

Okay, this quote from our local (Mobile) NWS area forecast discussion is about as clear as mud to me. If someone understands this better than I, would you please translate?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY): ALL OF THE KEY NUMERICAL
MODELS TYPICALLY USED FOR EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTING CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY SEEN DRIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION) MOVING DOWN THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY...THEN DIVING SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA TONIGHT
AND DEEPENING INTO A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY. THAT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULFMEX TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE-WISE AND THE FASTEST WITH
THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. WE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND START INTRODUCING SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
(DESTIN AREA) WEDNESDAY (SORT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND
THE SLOWER ECMWF). WE BRING THE POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF HINTED AT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING UP OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUN WAS
WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND KEEPS ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN GULFMEX THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PLAYERS (THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST)...EXCEPT WEAKER WITH ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURES FORMING UP
UNDER THE GULF UPPER LOW. SO...WE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT IN THE FACT
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE VARIOUS EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IS TO BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE BACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW OVER THE GULF SLIDES WESTWARD TOWARDS
TEXAS. STAY TUNED. /05

I'm just not sure why we're taking comfort here. Is it because a low will be moving westward from Florida? Or is it because there might be a tropical system moving up from the Caribbean and the high should build back to protect us? I'm confused as to which feature could be the tropical system: the low that gets out in the Gulf (sticking around and translating down to the surface) or a tropical system coming up from the Caribbean? Or are the models showing two separate systems????

[LaBreeze]

Not only Rita in late September, but also don't forget about Lili in early October.