Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Chacor]

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385
NOUS42 KNHC 161530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. TROPICAL STORM INGRID
      FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
      A. 18/0000Z                   A. 18/1200Z
      B. NOAA3 0708A INGRID         B. NOAA2 0808A INGRID
      C. 17/2000Z                   C. 18/0800Z
      D. 19.2N 61.3W                D. 20.0N 62.2W
      E. 17/2145Z TO 18/0230Z       E. 18/1000Z TO 18/1500Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY MISSIONS.

   3. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF JAMAICA
      FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
      A. 17/2000Z                   A. 18/0600Z
      B. AFXXX 01IIA                B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
      C. 17/1600Z                   C. 18/0200Z
      D. 16.0N 76.0W                D. 17.5N 78.5W
      E. 17/1900Z TO 18/0000Z       E. 18/0500Z TO 18/1100Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000FT            F. SFC TO 10,000FT

    4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       IS A THREAT

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                           WVW



They're flying.

[RL3AO]

Interesting, flights planned.

[Vortex]

I didn't expect that so soon...

[CrazyC83]

Wow, a Recon when it hasn't been declared an Invest yet? This should be 93L or 94L (depending on the east Atlantic wave) soon...

[ROCK]

that is odd? METS any idea what this is about? flying into an invest is one thing but a batch of t-storms.......

[HURAKAN]

48 HRS:



72 HRS:

[RL3AO]

It is probably better to be prepared since the models are forecasting development. They can cancel the flights easily.

[eaglegirl]

Still interested by 2 impending Korea hits with recurves around the back side of Japan. If I remember teleconnection 101, that would seem to indicate 2 Florida hits, possibly the second one (the one by Seoul) hitting much farther up the coast or the Panhandle. This teleconnection shows ridging poking into Japan which is why the storms hit Korea. But I still think it teleconnects to a transient trough or weaker high pressure (assuming the storms go as predicted).

Nari basically comes right out of the south while the second storm, Wipha almost hits Shanghai.

Just something to watch. Now I'm going back to sleep for another 5 hours.

Steve

I should know the answer to my question... but, I'm drawing a complete blank.

A few years ago, we had 2-3 systems following each other like a parade tracking toward the US.

The satellite images of the systems showing them all together were spectacular and breathtakingly beautiful.

Does anyone remember the year and the names of the systems?

Thanks

[ROCK]

It is probably better to be prepared since the models are forecasting development. They can cancel the flights easily.

yeah maybe they are thinking since they are on their way to Igrid why not do a fly by.....

[Stratosphere747]

It is probably better to be prepared since the models are forecasting development. They can cancel the flights easily.

yeah maybe they are thinking since they are on their way to Igrid why not do a fly by.....

Two different planes and missions.

[canegrl04]

Since all the models are in agreement there will be devel0pment,and the threat will be to the US,I guess they take it seriously enough to investigate.It should become an invest within the next 24 hours.Maybe after they fly over it

[ROCK]

It is probably better to be prepared since the models are forecasting development. They can cancel the flights easily.

yeah maybe they are thinking since they are on their way to Igrid why not do a fly by.....

Two different planes and missions.

thanks Strat...didnt see that...

[Recurve]

Except there's nothing there yet. Isn't it still just thunderstorms over the coast, and a wave approaching from the east? No low turning in the vicinity we've been talking about. And there are several UL votmax around, shear looks like it will be tricky.

NOT an official forecast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

48 HRS:



72 HRS:

YES!!!! A strong tropical Wave Axis with the North Portion over florida!!! The breezes will
pick up with those waves...we could have gusty winds of
25-35 mph with that Wave!!! And some heavy rains behind it!!!
I always love it when a strong NE wind drives large waves on the
western side of tampa bay.

Thanks for posting that wave image Hurakan. It's got me so excited

[Stratosphere747]

I think recon was scheduled "just in case." As many know you just don't ring the crew and all of a sudden fly.

Could easily be called off as well.

[hurricanetrack]

Gotta spend budeted money too or it could be lost....maybe?

[RL3AO]

Gotta spend budeted money too or it could be lost....maybe?

I think it is a better safe than sorry thing. You can't just call up the crew and say "flight in 1 hour". They need 12-24 hours time to prepare. If it doesn't look good tomorrow they will cancel.

[njweather]

Many people perceived Humberto as a surprise-storm. Of course, many on this board alone were watching it one week in advance, but the TV met community really didn't pick up on it till later and that's because there wasn't enough solid data on it. I assume they're trying to prevent such a scenario...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection is exploding
on that eastern caribbean tropical wave:

[Stratosphere747]

Convection is not exploding, it is actually waning.