TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 16:15 UTC

[Gustywind]

Anjd in my location,winds are from the W to WSW,5 to 12 kh...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

['CaneFreak]

To be safe, I would issue TS Watches at 5pm. Nothing to be too concerned with.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Ok, what is this I am seeing around 30 N and 75 W? Is that the weakness? Hmm...I dont see what there is to contest with the NHC's forecast. Looks like a weakness to me. Looks like there is a trough digging in out west to push the Central Plains ridge east which moves the mid-oceanic ridge east, which finally moves the weakness to the east as well. Given the slow movement of this system, this all has plenty of time to take shape.

[storms in NC]

I don't think they really know what is going on from what they said here. JMO
out of NHC at 11AM

SINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[Recurve]

She's trying to beat the odds. The UL shear is obvious but Ingrid's still producing some cold tops near the center, somewhat of a burst an hour ago. As Avila said in yesterday's discussion, the vigorous circulation could continue for a few days. Obviously if shear relaxes, it could get its act together. Have to see if it's going to get into dry air.

BTW, is that still an upper low due north? It had quite a blob of convection for just an ULL.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 16:45 UTC

[jaxfladude]

Why, oh why, is Ingrid still around since she was of the most forecasted systems ever to be dissipated????
Great she is still around...

[gatorcane]

indeed Ingrid continues to show signs or resilience through the tough shear.

Vortex - the GFS solution taking into the SE Bahamas doesn't surprise me. I'll check back in later today.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Ingrid seems to be almost going more west than NW and the models on the NHC still show the storm going NW then N. With it's weakness at this point, wouldn't it be less likely to be steered north? Is there a chance it stays south and skims the islands?

[gatorcane]

Latest wind shear tendency. The future for Ingrid is looking brighter by the hour:

[HUC]

Do you remember Eloise in 1975?? Seems the same situation same track;some of the islands north of Guadeloupe should be in alert about this TD,with a lot of activity in the est and se quadrants...

[Gustywind]

Latest at 1pm...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Blown Away]

The shear from the SW is not advancing as fast towards Ingrid like it was yesterday. If you remember from the visible yesterday you could see the shear just accelerating over Ingrid from the SW, not as strong today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Fego]

From the NHC 11 a.m. discussion:
..." SINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM."

You all must accept that Ingrid is giving us a good lesson.

[Blown Away]

indeed Ingrid continues to show signs or resilience through the tough shear.
Vortex - the GFS solution taking into the SE Bahamas doesn't surprise me. I'll check back in later today.

The GFS model run I see makes it to 65W before turning N, link to the model run that shows SE Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

The Latest AT 17:15 UTC

[Fego]

Looking at Ingrid at this hour (1:40 p.m.) is like "now or never".

[jaxfladude]

Looking at Ingrid at this hour (1:40 p.m.) is like "now or never".

Finally dying?

[Blown Away]

LLC has been hard to find.

[miamicanes177]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.