Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Recurve]

Is the convection south of Haiti on the wave axis? Or is that just spurred by an ULL?

Anything suppressing the wave?

I think the models were spurious before, but now that this wave is approaching and some convection is persisting, what are the chances for organization there, outside of what the models show?

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Jeff Master's blog this morning...

Gulf of Mexico storm possible this week
The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we'll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week's end. A few possibilities, from this morning's model runs:

NOGAPS: A tropical storm forms in the Western Caribbean Tuesday, and moves north, hitting South Florida Friday.

UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS: A tropical storm forms in the central Gulf of Mexico Thursday and moves west, hitting Texas on Saturday.

The seed for formation of a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean would be one of the tropical waves from Africa that are parading across the Atlantic. A Gulf of Mexico storm could get spawned from a tropical wave, or from an old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas southwards along the U.S. East Coast then across northern Florida.

[ROCK]

From Jeff Master's blog this morning...

Gulf of Mexico storm possible this week
The four reliable computer models for forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones have been very busy the past few runs cooking up some nasty storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Neither the timing nor the location of these hypothetical storms has been consistent. However, the models are insistent enough that something might happen, that I believe there is about a 40% chance we'll see a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by week's end. A few possibilities, from this morning's model runs:

NOGAPS: A tropical storm forms in the Western Caribbean Tuesday, and moves north, hitting South Florida Friday.

UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS: A tropical storm forms in the central Gulf of Mexico Thursday and moves west, hitting Texas on Saturday.

The seed for formation of a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean would be one of the tropical waves from Africa that are parading across the Atlantic. A Gulf of Mexico storm could get spawned from a tropical wave, or from an old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas southwards along the U.S. East Coast then across northern Florida.

Well thats 60% something doesn't form..... I read Jeff's blog quite often at work since 2K is blocked.....Good MET and tells it like it is. Not as bullish as JB though.

[jhamps10]

Convection is not exploding, it is actually waning.

it was then, but now actually it is starting to come back again. the one wierd thing is, we have recon scheduled, but no invest yet?

[HURAKAN]

Convection is not exploding, it is actually waning.

it was then, but now actually it is starting to come back again. the one wierd thing is, we have recon scheduled, but no invest yet?

Just for precaucion. It's easier to cancel a mission than to prepare for one.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the way things look now, the chances of development look slim. The UL continues to dig over the W Carib

Hopefully, I will finally have a week with no TC and I can worry about the important hings, like learning Salsa

[KatDaddy]

and me going to Vegas with the wife kid free

[perk]

based upon the way things look now, the chances of development look slim. The UL continues to dig over the W Carib

Hopefully, I will finally have a week with no TC and I can worry about the important hings, like learning Salsa

You better hope your employer does'nt read this. And by the way i think you're jumping the gun on no TC for the upcoming week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The northern part of the caribbean wave has developed more
convection.


If this can get going there is a good chance of a major hurricane,
shear is very low in the Western Caribbean, plus all of that
model support. PLUS some of the highest heat content
Ever in the Western Caribbean, even higher than in 2005.
I pointed that out earlier this season and was Accurate with the
felix/dean becoming cat 5s over that explosive water. My forecast for a
major did not, however, verify on Ingrid- but Ingrid never even entered
the Caribbean- so that has less relevance.

[Cyclenall]

based upon the way things look now, the chances of development look slim. The UL continues to dig over the W Carib

Hopefully, I will finally have a week with no TC and I can worry about the important hings, like learning Salsa

How strong would the shear be affecting the TC formation process?

[ronjon]

I agree that currently conditions are just too hostile for any TC development. If you believe the Euro and GFS models, however, they are forecasting a dramatic decrease in shear over the western caribbean in 24 hrs so we'll see.

[Derek Ortt]

You better hope your employer does'nt read this. And by the way i think you're jumping the gun on no TC for the upcoming week

I am learning the Salsa AT THE OFFICE. Most of the people in my office are in the same salsa course as I am. Good try though

[JonathanBelles]

You better hope your employer does'nt read this. And by the way i think you're jumping the gun on no TC for the upcoming week

I am learning the Salsa AT THE OFFICE. Most of the people in my office are in the same salsa course as I am. Good try though

Can I work at your office?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

IMO this needs to be an invest.
It is clearly looking strong.

And I am quite aware of the criteria needed
to become an invest.

[perk]

You better hope your employer does'nt read this. And by the way i think you're jumping the gun on no TC for the upcoming week

I am learning the Salsa AT THE OFFICE. Most of the people in my office are in the same salsa course as I am. Good try though

Derek i think it's nice that you can have some fun at work, kudos to your employer, and good luck in your salsa class.

['CaneFreak]

IMO this needs to be an invest.
It is clearly looking strong.

And I am quite aware of the criteria needed
to become an invest.

Ok, then please highlight the criteria you see met for this to become an invest.

[jhamps10]

it looks to be a little sheared right now, but I see a little bit of what appears to be a MLC about halfway between Puerto Rico and the D.R.

That is part of the wave, now the monsonal trough apears to be wanting to move off the coast, but isn't making too much headway right now, I do see signs that the shear may want to dissipate some, and may allow this to develop, but today I wouldn't declare an invest. but dmax tonight looks to be interesting that's for sure.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT an OFFICIAL forecast. Feel free to attack this forecast
to the utmost extent of your contentment.***

persistance
convection
focus of convection
shift from wave characteristic to focal characteristic
lessening of shear- the shear on the wave was
clearly visibly stronger yesterday but i didnt save yesterdays image
so can't pull it up
winds strong near the wave
circulation likely to develop with persistent convection
TD within 24-36 hours
Invest designation based on current

also for the future shear lessens
and heat content supports
category 5 easily- not saying this will
do that.

only negative factor is temporary competition with Ingrid.


Note the Explosion of Convection as the
Tropical Wave collides with the Linear Shaped
Monsoon Trough:
Monsoon Troughs can fuel violent hurricanes in the
Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma Comes to Mind.
Not saying it will hit category five,
but I am highly confident of a significant hurricane
with model support.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

IRRELEVANT Expression:
Well guys I hope I get hit by a tropical
storm whether it comes from the east or the south
or the west. Barry was awesome. I love that stuff. YEA BABY.
That's the REAL action right there. You know what I'm talkin about.

[jhamps10]

***NOT an OFFICIAL forecast. Feel free to attack this forecast
to the utmost extent of your contentment.***

persistance
convection
focus of convection
shift from wave characteristic to focal characteristic
lessening of shear- the shear on the wave was
clearly visibly stronger yesterday but i didnt save yesterdays image
so can't pull it up
winds strong near the wave
circulation likely to develop with persistent convection
TD within 24-36 hours
Invest designation based on current

also for the future shear lessens
and heat content supports
category 5 easily- not saying this will
do that.

only negative factor is temporary competition with Ingrid.


Note the Explosion of Convection as the
Tropical Wave collides with the Linear Shaped
Monsoon Trough:
Monsoon Troughs can fuel violent hurricanes in the
Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma Comes to Mind.
Not saying it will hit category five,
but I am highly confident of a significant hurricane
with model support.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

I see very little to dispute with your points, except I woulld like to see some proof of strong winds near the wave please. I'm not disagreeing, but I don't see any right there. you are 100% right that the shear yesterday was stronger than it is today, although I too don't have any images I don't think, and I can add another example to what you alleduded to, with hurricane Carla in the 60's.

[wxman57]

I, for one, am quite concerned about development in the western Caribbean with this system, but NOT in the next couple of days. Wind shear is just too strong. Once it passes Jamaica late Tue or Wed, wind shear will be gone and high pressure will dominate aloft Great environment for development. Could well be a west or northwest Gulf threat late this week, and I don't mean just a TS.

Again, NO DEVELOPMENT NEXT 2 DAYS, just some storms. Have to wait for it to pass the TUTT.