SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Tireman4]

Ok...so no front this weekend? Will it washout before it gets to the Houston area?

[Johnny]

Tireman, I think we will still have the front come through but not as cool as previously thought...maybe a glancing blow as most of the cooler air is shoved off to the east. Hopefully that will change as the week wears on.

[Mathias]

Well, these are the first few fronts of the season...in early September. I think this is a pretty good start for the first frontal passages, and maybe the sign of an early start to fall? This coupled with the early appearance of fall foliage could bode well for fall/winter lovers...one can only hope.

[Johnny]

It looks like us here in southeast, Texas are in from some good rain. If the system in the gulf stalls, then we could be looking at a big time gully washer.

From Jeff this morning....

Parameters coming together for heavy rains over SE TX.

Discussion:

Slow moving weak boundary currently entering the N part of SE TX while tropical feature has developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. Boundary to the N will sag southward today acting as a lifting focus for thunderstorm development. This boundary should stall out along the I-10 corridor tonight and remain over the area through Friday.

Per NHC and HPC discussions on tropical low over the western Gulf…some slow development of this system is possible as it moves toward the lower TX coast. IR images along with surface data support a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles S of Galveston or about 180 miles E of Brownsville. This low is drifting toward the WNW at around 5-10mph. Upper air conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next 12-24 hours as the system approaches the TX coast. GFS has joined the CMC, UKMET, and NAM and is now closing the system off into a closed low. GFS stalls the feature along the middle TX coast Wednesday night into late Thursday as steering flow collapses. We shall see what the first visible images show this morning. Point should be made that regardless if it develops or not lots of moisture will be thrown into SE TX on the NE side of the circulation center.

Stalling frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture moving northward from tropical low to produce excessive heavy rains along coastal TX. Boundary has had no problem producing 4-8 inch amounts over OK and N TX without deep tropical tap the last two days. Feel HPC guidance is grossly underestimating the rainfall potential given slow storm motion and nearly saturated air column. Should Gulf low spin up into a better defined tropical system rainfall patterns will concentrate along and well NE of the low center…similar to Erin. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches will be possible through Thursday.

As always when dealing with potential tropical developments the forecast will be subject to large changes.

[southerngale]

We have high rain chances Tues./Wed./Thurs./Fri.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-112115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
404 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS WET...

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST...MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
THIS MORNING...SLOWING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMING TO A HALT
NEAR A NATCHEZ-TO-CAMERON LINE LATER THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RICH GULF AIR
RETURNING NORTH...MOVING UP AND OVER THE STALLED FRONT. WIDESPREAD
CONTINUOUS RAIN WILL REPLACE THE PREVIOUS DAY`S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PERSISTING ON-AND-OFF THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
SETTING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE AIR
EVENTUALLY DRIES OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF THE SECOND
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

AT PRESENT...ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

[Yankeegirl]

Wow, the cold front pushed through here this afternoon... what a change! really, im not kidding... its a little bit cooler out but there is no humidity! and there is even a little breeze!! it feels really nice out there tonight...

[JenBayles]

With all our Comcrap troubles, I haven't been in here for some time, but has anyone noticed how the HGX forecast changes quite a lot with every shift change? It's been most noticeable with the rain chances this past week bouncing from 0% to 60% and everywhere in between - several times a day. What's going on? Forecaster Wars?

[JenBayles]

Can you say "Allison"? Familiar looking situation, isn't it?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER WITH OUR MARINE AND COASTAL ZONES NOW UNDER A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING A MILD CIRCULATION
CENTER UNDER A CURRENTLY MASSIVE REGION OF BLOW-UP CONVECTION
ABOUT 80-90 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON. PRESSURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 1008 MB AT BUOY 42019 AS THIS IS THE BEST
APPROXIMATE OF THE SURFACE-BASED LOW AS OF 14Z. ALL SIGNS ARE THAT
TD NINE IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AS THERE HAS BEEN A TIGHTENING
OF THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST...OR REMNANTS
OF YESTERDAY`S COOL FRONT...THAT MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

THUS...OUR MAIN THREAT FROM TD NINE AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE WILL
BE THAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE INLAND TWO-TIER COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
TOTAL EVENT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH WIDESPREAD
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEARING 15 INCHES AS OUTER BANDS
ROTATE ON IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR...OR ANTICIPATE...THESE STRONG NORTHERN CONVECTIVE BANDS.

PLEASE REFER TO ALL TPC PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TD
NUMBER NINE.

[Shoshana]

Unfortunately, it does remind me of Allison too.

Stay safe y'all.

[vbhoutex]

With all our Comcrap troubles, I haven't been in here for some time, but has anyone noticed how the HGX forecast changes quite a lot with every shift change? It's been most noticeable with the rain chances this past week bouncing from 0% to 60% and everywhere in between - several times a day. What's going on? Forecaster Wars?

Bill Reed is now at NHC. Gene Haefele is in charge now. I wouldn't expect this to be happening and it shouldn't be. Maybe the change of guard has them in a "tizzy".hehehe

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well it looks like the immediate Houston area lucked out, but the same cannot be said for those further east in an around Beaumont and also down along the coast in Galveston up through SW Louisiana. Humberto looks to have dealt a pretty decent blow (no pun intended) to those areas. Hopefully things will start returning to normal over the next few days though..and we better hope this storm doesn't make that loop the models are showing!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The next few nights look fantastic in north Houston!

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 67. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 67. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 92. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 69.

This, coupled with the already changing/dropping leaves, will give us our first true taste of fall!

[CajunMama]

It was absolutely beautiful here today. Bre and I (and hubbys) started tailgating around 1:00 or so. The weather was so nice and a college rivalry that was shelved for 21 years was revived brought out more than 33,000 people to the game.

[jasons2k]

Nice day here too, plenty of sun. Enjoyed what is probably one of the last few pool weekeneds. Even grilled some shrimp, and Tech won!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 66.7-degrees this morning. Looks like tonight could even be a degree or two cooler than that! Definitely a nice taste of fall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The nicest part about today is the current dewpoint...

Dewpoint: 58°F (14°C)

It feels wonderful.

[vbhoutex]

I don't know what the low was here today, but it is GORGEOUS here in Houston!!! What a beutiful dy for my daughter to start here new life with her husband!!!

[Diva]

Congrats on the successful wedding vbhoutex!!

Beautiful day here in Orange too! We had to earn it this week for sure.

[Yankeegirl]

This week is going to be nice, but from what i have been reading, there might be something tropical brewing....

[Yankeegirl]

BUMP...