Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[ronjon]

Jhamps10, I generally agree with your assessment except that I think it will probably come up through the caribbean further east of the western tip of Cuba. The latest GFS and Euro actually bring it east of the Isle of Youth toward the lower Keys to just SW of Ft Myers prior to the turn toward the W-NW. I know this will change but if the timing is correct there will be a pretty large weakness in the 500 mb ridge extending over all of FL and well east of FL in 4 days. Heck, we could even see a weak storm hit S FL and then travel W-NW from there. Of course, the longer it takes to develop and the slower it travels means more of a leftward track as the 500 mb ridge will start to build from the east by day 5.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jhamps10, I generally agree with your assessment except that I think it will probably come up through the caribbean further east of the western tip of Cuba. The latest GFS and Euro actually bring it east of the Isle of Youth toward the lower Keys to just SW of Ft Myers prior to the turn toward the W-NW. I know this will change but if the timing is correct there will be a pretty large weakness in the 500 mb ridge extending over all of FL and well east of FL in 4 days. Heck, we could even see a weak storm hit S FL and then travel W-NW from theand re. Of course, the longer it takes to develop and the slower it travels means more of a leftward track as the 500 mb ridge will start to build from the east by day 5.

Oh okay thanks ronjon. It's that weakness versus the ridge that might cause this to go north and then
swerve west and travel west thereafter for a while.

[tropicsgal05]

When is this system suppose to enter the GOM?

[flwxwatcher]

12Z Euro looks more like SW LA rather than SE LA, just east of TX border then north to near Shreveport.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f168.gif

Yes, and it comes dangerously close to the SW coast of FL two days prior to that in the 12Z Euro.

yes... takes it north across Cuba close to Key West then turns it NW toward LA... probably still going to take a day or 2 to sort out the details but when someone like WXMAN57 starts expressing concern about something I start paying extra attention.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Probably in 3-4 days it enters the GOM...

So If I am interpreting everyone's analyses correctly:
A weakness pulls this north to near SW FL initially- but then
a large ridge pushes this west towards Texas/Louisiana.

[ronjon]

Probably in 3-4 days it enters the GOM...

So If I am interpreting everyone's analyses correctly:
A weakness pulls this north to near SW FL initially- but then
a large ridge pushes this west towards Texas/Louisiana.

Correcta mundo.

[skysummit]

18z GFS has begun rolling out if anyone wants to post it.

[jhamps10]

Jhamps10, I generally agree with your assessment except that I think it will probably come up through the caribbean further east of the western tip of Cuba. The latest GFS and Euro actually bring it east of the Isle of Youth toward the lower Keys to just SW of Ft Myers prior to the turn toward the W-NW. I know this will change but if the timing is correct there will be a pretty large weakness in the 500 mb ridge extending over all of FL and well east of FL in 4 days. Heck, we could even see a weak storm hit S FL and then travel W-NW from there. Of course, the longer it takes to develop and the slower it travels means more of a leftward track as the 500 mb ridge will start to build from the east by day 5.

exactly ronjon, it very well could end up SW of ft myers before moving WNW.

[flwxwatcher]

Probably in 3-4 days it enters the GOM...

So If I am interpreting everyone's analyses correctly:
A weakness pulls this north to near SW FL initially- but then
a large ridge pushes this west towards Texas/Louisiana.

Correcta mundo.

the movement of the mid and upper level features around Florida and the Gulf will be a big key. We saw how the Models had trouble with those features for a few days with Gabrielle.

[DIDDLESBABE]

OK - you guys start mentioning close to Ft. Myers and you
begin to "creep me out" - Just how close is this supposed to
come to us - before - turning???

[skysummit]

So far the 18z GFS is out to 48 hours and isn't showing squat. Wasn't it yesterday's 18z that didn't show much also?

[Ivanhater]

So far the 18z GFS is out to 48 hours and isn't showing squat. Wasn't it yesterday's 18z that didn't show much also?

Bout the same as the 12z run skysummit...didnt close a low until central gulf

[skysummit]

60 hours out....still nothing, but does show a wave approaching Florida from the east.

[skysummit]

72 Hours....still nothing.
18z GFS @ H +72

[Extremeweatherguy]

72 hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

Pretty sharp wave moving from east to west across the FL straights.

[Ivanhater]

84...Low forms

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS shows FL. Models are showing development on peice of energy breaking off E Coast trough.

[skysummit]

18Z GFS shows FL. Models are showing development on peice of energy breaking off E Coast trough.

How do you know? It's only out to 102 hours.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS shows FL. Models are showing development on peice of energy breaking off E Coast trough.

How do you know? It's only out to 102 hours.

..I thought I missed something

[Ivanhater]

114..central gulf