Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[PTPatrick]

Gfs seems to be bouncing it around the SE GOM for a couple days....rather odd, but thank God it does not show any deeping(perhaps shear still a factor...not that GFS predicts strength at all)

[PTrackerLA]

GFS seems to keep it very weak, but we all know it's not good for intensity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not looking good for development today, the backside of the tutt has moved into this area. With 20-30 knots of shear. No wonder the models are having a hard time with this system, the tropics right now are very unfavorable. Look northward out of the tropics for Jerry with our system southwest of the Azores.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We'll see where the system actually forms first. Some models have a system developing in the Carribbean and some have a system developing east of FL. Everyone always assumes Texas when something hasn't even formed yet.

[skysummit]

LOL...yea, if the GFS were actually showing this deepen, I'd be worried about a Cat 5 monster. The bad thing about this run is it's moving over the loop current, and moving kind of slow.

[PTPatrick]

I would perfer the carribean system become Jerry and NOT Karen...Jerry has never seemed to be able to muster up more than TS minimal hurricane status. Karen on the other hand, well, lets just say I have a bad taste in my mouth about the K names

[skysummit]

18z GFS @ H+126...still near the central gulf.

[Opal storm]

Since we're approaching late September...wouldn't it be more likely for a front to dip down and pull this off to the NE at some point in the Gulf? Like a Wilma/Charley type track.

[skysummit]

Since we're approaching late September...wouldn't it be more likely for a front to dip down and pull this off to the NE at some point in the Gulf? Like a Wilma/Charley type track.

It's all about timing.

[skysummit]

18z GFS @ H+118...approaching central Gulf.

[skysummit]

18z GFS @ H+138...central gulf.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H+138

[skysummit]

LOL....and the GFS loses it.

[TampaFl]

Florida NWS AFDS:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE COMING DIFFUSE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN GENERAL AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ENTER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND
EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT...BUT ONLY ASSIGNING A 30 PERCENT POP FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS ON MONDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY SO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY MID-WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. BY THIS POINT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AS ANY SMALL CHANGE IN POSITION OF THE LOW COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE TYPE OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT
FOR NOW THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID-WEEK AND JUST AFTER.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007


.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHIFTS WEST WITH TIME. THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO VARY BETWEEN EACH MODEL
AS WELL AS BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE PREVIOUS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS AS IS AND WAIT TO TO SEE IF MODELS
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING NEXT
WEEKEND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE
REGION WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SETTING UP
A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
PATTERN.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.LONG TERM...DEEP/STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST- NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LARGE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. PER MEDIUM-RANGE
GFS...THURSDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY IF A POTENT
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...POSSIBLY INDUCING A BRIEF SECONDARY LOW IN THE LOCAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS BOARD FOR THU...HIGHER
POPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IF THIS SCENARIO IS
REALIZED. FRI-SUN...A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER- TIME PATTERN IS
FORECAST WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
...SUMMER-TIME CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

EXTENDED...EASTERLY WAVE FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TUE WHICH WILL
KEEP A STOUT N/NE WIND ALG THE NE FL COAST AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EVENT WHICH MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY. WAVE
AXIS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN
SE BEHIND THE AXIS THU-FRI AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOVE WEST. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN COULD MAKE FOR A WET END OF THE WEEK THOUGH 12Z GFS KEEPS
DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP POPS AT 50%
FOR NOW.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS FCST TO CROSS THE WATERS WED WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THU. WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS THU AND FRI. ALTHOUGH NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...CHOPPY CONDS EXPECTED WITH NE SWELL
PERSISTING ESP WED-THU.

[PTPatrick]

God I wish GFS had better resolution...I would love to know what kind of system we would be looking at stalling in the bathwater filled gulf of mexico. If this happened can you imagine the publiciity if it was a strong system. In this senario everybody from Key West to brownsville would be on their toes for 2 days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since we're approaching late September...wouldn't it be more likely for a front to dip down and pull this off to the NE at some point in the Gulf? Like a Wilma/Charley type track.

It is awfully late for a major hurricane to hit Texas, but Rita was a near miss, but obviously did cause at least Cat 1 conditions near BPT area. (Derek Ortt claims just Cat 1 in Texas, and the highests 1 minute sustained I found looking around was 82 knots, but with a pressure in Port Arthur, IIRC, of 941 mb when the center was crossing just East in Louisiana, I'm surprised something higher wasn't measured). Beulah was this week in 1967 near BRO, and in 1949 a borderline Cat 2 or Cat 3 hit Freeport on October 3rd, so it isn't impossible for a strong storm to come this late, but it is getting less likely.


Now, Lili was an October storm on the Central LA coast, and Hurricane Kate was a borderline major hitting Florida in November (and October is the month of Opal and Wilma), so one can see the intuitively obvious, the later the season, the more established the Westerlies, the more the Eastern Gulf becomes a target for anything that has made it to the Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

I, for one, am quite concerned about development in the western Caribbean with this system, but NOT in the next couple of days. Wind shear is just too strong. Once it passes Jamaica late Tue or Wed, wind shear will be gone and high pressure will dominate aloft Great environment for development. Could well be a west or northwest Gulf threat late this week, and I don't mean just a TS.

Again, NO DEVELOPMENT NEXT 2 DAYS, just some storms. Have to wait for it to pass the TUTT.

I have heard it would be a problem at the end of the week anyways. I will be enjoying the nice weather. I never heard so much concern for the tropics right now and we should always be.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Preliminary:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today was by far the least humid and most comfortable day in HOU since probably May. May not be astrological Autumn yet, but the weather in Houston doesn't know it isn't Fall already.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Since we're approaching late September...wouldn't it be more likely for a front to dip down and pull this off to the NE at some point in the Gulf? Like a Wilma/Charley type track.

There are no fronts on the horizon though..so unless one starts showing up in the models it looks like we will be front-free next week in the south. As Jeff and Wxman57 mentioned a few pages back, the most likely path for any system that develops this time around would be toward the western or northwestern GOM.