So, this is a La Nina upper pattern? hmm...

[hurricanetrack]

I know this is 16 days out, but dad-gumb! Look at that 200mb pattern. The vast majority of the Atlantic is not favorable in the least bit. 30+ knots of shear screaming out of the western Atlantic heading east. How is this going to play in to a more active than normal October? Even now, conditions are terrible for significant development. What happened?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_384m.gif

[Recurve]

It's El Nino in drag.

[Derek Ortt]

its model NCEP, enough said

[hurricanetrack]

Purely from a "I love the science of hurricanes" part of me, I hope you are right on the money there Derek. I have all this super equipment and technology to gather ground data and no hurricanes to use it in. But, I am keenly aware that most people are just fine with that and I understand. Just kind of wondering when the hurricanes are coming....

[Honeyko]

Considering that few, if any, of the models can correctly predict what Ingrid is doing a mere 24 hours in advance, I wouldn't hesitate to write off any 16-day scenario as complete bollocks.

[wxmann_91]

I know this is 16 days out, but dad-gumb! Look at that 200mb pattern. The vast majority of the Atlantic is not favorable in the least bit. 30+ knots of shear screaming out of the western Atlantic heading east. How is this going to play in to a more active than normal October? Even now, conditions are terrible for significant development. What happened?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_384m.gif

It's the 384 hr GFS, but it is weird. I guess there has been some factor that has so far overpowered the effects of La Nina.

[Ixolib]

Purely from a "I love the science of hurricanes" part of me, I hope you are right on the money there Derek. I have all this super equipment and technology to gather ground data and no hurricanes to use it in. But, I am keenly aware that most people are just fine with that and I understand. Just kind of wondering when the hurricanes are coming....

Well, Dean and Felix were just there waiting for your arrival..... Now THAT would have been an amazing road trip!!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

I know this is 16 days out, but dad-gumb! Look at that 200mb pattern. The vast majority of the Atlantic is not favorable in the least bit. 30+ knots of shear screaming out of the western Atlantic heading east. How is this going to play in to a more active than normal October? Even now, conditions are terrible for significant development. What happened?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_384m.gif

It's the 384 hr GFS, but it is weird. I guess there has been some factor that has so far overpowered the effects of La Nina.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the GFS @ 384 hours.

[Downdraft]

Personally, I don't pay much attention now to the eastern/central Atlantic. The CV season is about over and even if something develops the odds of it making it all the way across are slim. It's happened for sure but I'd rather go with the surer bets now in the GOM, Bay of Campeche and western Carib. I think to many people look east to soon and keep looking after they should. Just my personal thoughts we're all here to enjoy.

[HURRICANE ILM]

HUMMMMMMMMMMMMM !!!!!

[cycloneye]

As you can see Mark,there are no El Niño surprises here.It has to be something else.I think that the scientists will have to study all of this to get to a conclusion about what has the 2007 season being affected by as clearly la Niña is establishing.Or is something that was memtioned in a UK report a few months back,(GW),that can cause less activity but more intense hurricanes

[Coredesat]

Actually, the warm anomalies west of 180W are becoming warmer and deeper. I'm not entirely sure this is a true La Nina.

[cycloneye]

The SOI is not tanking,a sign that el Niño is not comming in a hurry.

[Aquawind]

Woah... 9 named systems with 2 cat5 landfalls and ~75 more days left in the Atl season. We will still be well above normal before all is said an done. Whatever fly is in the ointment..it's had little impact. Nothing happened..other than another 384hr model projection. This year you get to spend more quality time at home as the football season starts for a change.

[Frank2]

I should have held to my earlier statement about an early end to the Cape Verde season (did I get pounded for that one) - it now seems to be true...

As downdraft said, most of the tropics are now very unfavorable for development, and, it's likely not to get any more favorable, as the westerlies continue their southward migration...

Many keep relying on 384-hour models, but, that means the forecasts are now nearing October 1, so, as the weeks keep getting shifted later and later (and the temps north of 30N keep heading towards freezing), it's only common sense that this progression will mean a smaller and smaller chance of a late active season...

That's the other reason I kept mentioning seasons like 1979 and 2002, since they both ended in September (or at the end of the month) - this might be another season that ends in September, and, is why the old Floridian poem that says "October, all over!" is still true...

Still, something might come, but, at least for now, it looks good, and, I'm glad - the last thing the country needed was another Katrina-type system - there's enough else going on without a catastrophic hurricane making landfall, as it did in Mexico and Central America...

[Derek Ortt]

2001 had far more hostile conditions that this year did. We started having a lot of high latitude developments in October and November. That season ended in December

It would not surprise me to have a few high lat developments, may have one (or two if the Azores forms) this week

[Jim Hughes]

Actually, the warm anomalies west of 180W are becoming warmer and deeper. I'm not entirely sure this is a true La Nina.

The subsurface has no bearing on the now aspect of the ENSO. It can have an influence on the future. The La Nina is gaining strength every day/week and nobody should be suggesting otherwise.

[Jim Hughes]

The SOI is not tanking,a sign that el Niño is not comming in a hurry.

There has been a disconnect between the SOI and this La Nina because of the positve IOD. Looking at the SOI will get you in trouble Luis. Unless it starts going really positive. Then it's an eye opener.

[PhillyWX]

Woah... 9 named systems with 2 cat5 landfalls and ~75 more days left in the Atl season. We will still be well above normal before all is said an done. Whatever fly is in the ointment..it's had little impact. Nothing happened..other than another 384hr model projection. This year you get to spend more quality time at home as the football season starts for a change.

We are above normal season to date as it is. I would think that we finish up above normal at the end of November as well.

[Jim Hughes]

I should have held to my earlier statement about an early end to the Cape Verde season (did I get pounded for that one) - it now seems to be true...

As downdraft said, most of the tropics are now very unfavorable for development, and, it's likely not to get any more favorable, as the westerlies continue their southward migration...

Many keep relying on 384-hour models, but, that means the forecasts are now nearing October 1, so, as the weeks keep getting shifted later and later (and the temps north of 30N keep heading towards freezing), it's only common sense that this progression will mean a smaller and smaller chance of a late active season...

That's the other reason I kept mentioning seasons like 1979 and 2002, since they both ended in September (or at the end of the month) - this might be another season that ends in September, and, is why the old Floridian poem that says "October, all over!" is still true...

Still, something might come, but, at least for now, it looks good, and, I'm glad - the last thing the country needed was another Katrina-type system - there's enough else going on without a catastrophic hurricane making landfall, as it did in Mexico and Central America...

This season is not over Frank. Last year I forecasted EL Nino -weak hurricane season and everybody thought I was wrong even though I have been long range forecasting for about twelve years now and this forums higher ups have never given me the respect that I deserve. (Even though I have been a guest on a weather radio show (Not Internet) or my forecasts have been read over the radio air waves. And I have had numerous newspaper articles written about me or my forecasts.)

This year I forecasted the developing La Nina earlier than any organization out there. Trust me. This season still has something left.